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JEF vs MCO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) vs. Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JEF reported second-quarter 2026 results in late June that missed consensus EPS estimates, though revenue showed year-over-year expansion in investment banking and capital markets activities.
- MCO delivered record first-quarter 2026 results in April and is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 22, 2026, with analysts projecting continued demand in ratings and analytics segments.
- Year-to-date through early July 2026, JEF posted approximately 17% total return, outpacing the S&P 500 benchmark, while MCO recorded roughly 4% return amid broader market comparisons.
- JEF operates as a diversified financial services firm with exposure to investment banking, capital markets, and asset management, whereas MCO focuses on credit ratings, research, and analytics with more stable recurring revenue characteristics.
- Recent market activity for JEF included a €850 million senior notes issuance in early July 2026, while MCO maintained positioning ahead of its upcoming earnings release.
- Relative performance reflects contrasting business models, with JEF showing higher volatility tied to market-dependent fees and MCO exhibiting steadier sentiment driven by information services demand.
Introduction
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) and Moody's Corporation (MCO) represent two distinct segments of the financial services industry, making their stock comparison relevant for investors seeking exposure to capital markets activity versus credit and analytics services. Traders monitoring cyclical financial plays and those focused on defensive information businesses may find the relative performance and positioning of these equities instructive in the current market environment. This analysis examines recent price behavior, earnings developments, and key operational contrasts using publicly available data from the past several weeks.
JEF Overview and Recent Performance
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) provides investment banking, capital markets, and asset management services. In recent weeks, the stock traded in a range near $52–$53 following its second-quarter 2026 earnings release on June 24, which showed revenue growth but missed EPS estimates. Year-to-date returns reached approximately 17% through early July, ahead of the S&P 500 in that period, though one-year performance lagged the benchmark. Sentiment has been influenced by mixed earnings outcomes and a July debt issuance of €850 million in senior notes due 2033. Broader market activity in financial services has contributed to price fluctuations within the stock’s 52-week range of roughly $35.53 to $71.04.
MCO Overview and Recent Performance
Moody's Corporation (MCO) delivers credit ratings, research, and analytics services with significant recurring revenue. Recent market activity has centered on preparations for second-quarter 2026 earnings, scheduled for release on July 22. The stock traded near $485–$490 in early July, reflecting a year-to-date return of approximately 4% through that period, which trailed the S&P 500. First-quarter 2026 results, reported in April, highlighted record performance and supported an updated full-year outlook. Sentiment remains tied to demand trends in ratings and analytics amid stable operational positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) functions as a full-service investment bank with revenue streams heavily influenced by deal flow, trading volumes, and asset management fees, introducing greater cyclicality compared with Moody's Corporation (MCO), which derives the majority of its revenue from subscription-based ratings and analytics with more predictable characteristics. Recent momentum favored JEF on a year-to-date basis, while MCO demonstrated relative stability ahead of its earnings release. Risk factors for JEF include sensitivity to equity and debt market conditions, whereas MCO faces exposure to regulatory and macroeconomic shifts affecting credit demand. Sector exposure places JEF squarely in capital markets and MCO in financial information services. Market sentiment reflects these differences, with JEF showing higher volatility and MCO attracting attention for earnings consistency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in recent weeks, earnings positioning, and relative stability, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic weighting to MCO for its recurring-revenue profile and upcoming earnings catalyst, while noting JEF’s stronger year-to-date momentum alongside greater earnings variability. Any such assessment remains probabilistic and derived from quantitative inputs rather than forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JEF is a Hold and MCO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JEF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMCO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- JEF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JEF’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MCO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JEF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MCO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
JEF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -1.01% price change this week, while MCO (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was -0.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +12.62%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.17%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +1.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.63%.
Reported Earning Dates
JEF is expected to report earnings on Sep 30, 2026.
MCO is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+12.62% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+1.72% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| JEF | MCO | JEF / MCO | |
| Capitalization | 12.1B | 86.6B | 14% |
| EBITDA | 4.83B | 3.96B | 122% |
| Gain YTD | -13.840 | -2.520 | 549% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.69 | 35.56 | 41% |
| Revenue | 11.8B | 7.87B | 150% |
| Total Cash | 14.3B | 1.51B | 947% |
| Total Debt | 26.5B | 7.31B | 362% |
JEF | MCO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JEF's Valuation (14) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for MCO (85) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that JEF’s stock grew significantly faster than MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as JEF (65) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's SMR Rating (15) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JEF (79) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew somewhat faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as JEF (60) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's P/E Growth Rating (72) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as JEF (82) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
| JEF | MCO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 85% | 4 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 64% | 21 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 49% |
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JEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JEF has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JEF jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.