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JEF vs MCO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) vs. Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JEF trades at a trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings, a valuation metric) of about 16, significantly lower than MCO's 33, indicating potentially better value for investors.
- JEF has outperformed year-to-date (YTD, from January 1) with gains around 23%, compared to MCO's roughly 12% rise.
- Recent quarterly results show strength in both: JEF posted record investment banking (IB, advisory and underwriting services) revenues, while MCO benefited from analytics demand.
- JEF offers a higher dividend yield near 3.3%, versus MCO's under 1%.
- MCO provides more stability through recurring ratings fees, while JEF exposure ties to market cycles.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits JEF, a diversified investment banking firm, against MCO, a leader in credit ratings and financial analytics. Both operate in the financial services sector but cater to different dynamics: JEF thrives on deal-making and trading volumes, while MCO benefits from steady demand for risk assessment. Traders seeking cyclical growth or value plays, and investors eyeing relative performance in capital markets, will find insights here on recent momentum, valuations, and positioning amid evolving economic conditions.
JEF Overview and Recent Performance
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is a global full-service investment bank engaged in investment banking, capital markets, asset management, and commercial banking. In recent market activity, its shares have hovered around $47-48, within a 52-week range of $35.53 to $71.04. Year-to-date gains exceed 22%, reflecting robust performance despite broader volatility. Key influences include strong Q1 2026 results with revenues up 27% year-over-year (YoY), driven by record IB fees, equities strength, and asset management growth. Takeover speculation, including interest from peers like Sumitomo Mitsui, has supported sentiment, though shares pulled back amid probes and market rotations. Quarterly revenue growth of 26.6% and EPS (earnings per share) expansion underscore operational resilience.
MCO Overview and Recent Performance
Moody's Corporation (MCO) specializes in credit ratings—independent assessments of debt issuers' creditworthiness—and analytics solutions. Its stock trades near $448, in a 52-week band of $402 to $547, with YTD returns around 12%. Recent weeks show modest gains amid anticipation for Q1 earnings, following a solid Q4 2025 where revenues rose 13% YoY to $1.89 billion, fueled by analytics and issuance volumes. Positive factors include healthy global bond activity, but sentiment tempers due to negative outlooks on business development companies (BDCs) and private credit stresses. Profit margins remain strong, supporting stability in a high-valuation profile with a market cap over $79 billion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
JEF and MCO diverge in business models: JEF's revenue mixes volatile IB (45%+), trading, and assets under management (AUM, total client funds managed), making it cyclical, while MCO derives ~50% from stable ratings fees and growing analytics. Growth drivers contrast too—JEF leverages M&A (mergers and acquisitions) upticks and equities volumes, posting 26% quarterly revenue growth, versus MCO's bond issuance and data demand. Recent momentum favors JEF with superior YTD returns and lower valuation (P/E 16 vs. 33), but MCO offers lower volatility. Risks include JEF's high debt/equity (344%) and regulatory probes, against MCO's private credit exposure. Sector-wise, both tie to finance, but sentiment leans positive for JEF on catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward JEF over MCO, based on superior trend consistency, undervaluation (lower P/E and PEG ratios), and relative momentum including strong earnings beats and YTD outperformance. Upcoming catalysts like deal flow could sustain upside probability around 60-70%, though MCO's stability merits watch post-earnings. This reflects data-driven signals, not advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JEF is a Hold and MCO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JEF’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMCO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- JEF’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JEF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MCO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JEF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MCO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
JEF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а +1.39% price change this week, while MCO (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was -1.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -1.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.37%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -6.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.50%.
Reported Earning Dates
JEF is expected to report earnings on Jun 24, 2026.
MCO is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-1.13% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (-6.05% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| JEF | MCO | JEF / MCO | |
| Capitalization | 12.8B | 78.1B | 16% |
| EBITDA | 4.61B | 3.96B | 116% |
| Gain YTD | 2.904 | -12.036 | -24% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.08 | 32.09 | 66% |
| Revenue | 11.2B | 7.87B | 142% |
| Total Cash | 5.15B | 1.51B | 341% |
| Total Debt | 25.9B | 7.31B | 354% |
JEF | MCO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 72 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 83 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 48 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JEF's Valuation (72) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (86) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that JEF’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
JEF's Profit vs Risk Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (56) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that JEF’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's SMR Rating (15) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for JEF (83) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew significantly faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
JEF's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (55) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that JEF’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
JEF's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MCO (73) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that JEF’s stock grew somewhat faster than MCO’s over the last 12 months.
| JEF | MCO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 8 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 43% |
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JEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JEF has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JEF jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.
MCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCO has been closely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCO jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 100% | -0.74% | ||
| SPGI - MCO | 88% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| JEF - MCO | 66% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| MSCI - MCO | 66% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| SF - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.37% | ||
| GS - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.89% | ||
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