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KDP vs PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Diverging momentum: KDP has been trending near 52-week highs on strong analyst support, while PEP has traded near 52-week lows after cutting its full-year earnings outlook.
- Different growth stories: Keurig Dr Pepper is executing a high-profile coffee-and-beverage separation, whereas PepsiCo is working through a North American turnaround and margin pressure.
- Income profiles differ: PEP offers a higher dividend yield with a long payout track record, while KDP carries a more moderate yield but a notably elevated payout ratio.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst momentum, Tickeron's AI currently favors KDP over PEP in this comparison.
- Explore more on each name: KDP Major News, KDP Today's Price Move, PEP Major News, and PEP Today's Price Move.
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Introduction
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) and PepsiCo (PEP) are two of the most recognizable names in the North American beverage and consumer staples space, yet they have recently moved in strikingly different directions. KDP has climbed toward 52-week highs as investors respond to a strategic separation of its coffee and beverage businesses, while PEP has traded near multi-year lows amid weaker domestic demand and rising input costs. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how relative performance, market positioning, and forward catalysts differ between a diversified global food-and-beverage giant and a more domestically focused, restructuring-driven challenger.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, or Keurig Dr Pepper, is a leading North American non-alcoholic beverage company operating two core segments: coffee systems (including the Keurig single-serve brand) and packaged beverages (including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Snapple, and 7UP). In recent market activity, the stock has shown notable strength, touching new 52-week highs as analyst sentiment has firmed into a consensus "Buy" rating.
A central catalyst has been the company's plan to separate its coffee and beverage businesses into two standalone entities, a move management has advanced in recent weeks with leadership appointments and the integration of an enlarged coffee platform acquired through JDE Peet's. This acquisition significantly expanded KDP's international coffee footprint and revenue base. The company has also unveiled product innovation, including a new Keurig brewing system and a 2027 beverage lineup, which analysts have cited as supportive of brand momentum. Sentiment has been further bolstered by a series of Buy reiterations and price-target increases from major sell-side firms, though a high dividend payout ratio and ongoing insider selling remain points of caution for some observers.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PEP, or PepsiCo, is a global food and beverage powerhouse whose portfolio spans soft drinks, Gatorade, Lay's, Doritos, and Quaker. In recent market activity, the stock has been under pressure, trading near its 52-week low and below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of persistent bearish technical positioning.
The company's most recent quarterly results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, driven by strong international growth, yet the market focused on a cut to full-year earnings growth guidance. Management cited rising input costs, unfavorable product mix, and a challenged North American consumer environment, particularly in carbonated soft drinks. PepsiCo is executing a domestic turnaround that includes price resets on snacks, increased brand investment, and cost-reduction efforts, all while activist investor Elliott Management maintains a sizeable stake. The stock's lower valuation and an above-average dividend yield have drawn value-oriented interest, but near-term earnings momentum remains a key uncertainty.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ sharply in scale, scope, and strategic direction. PEP is a diversified global enterprise with roughly 30 times the revenue base of KDP, spanning snacks and beverages across international markets. KDP, by contrast, is concentrated in North American beverages and is in the midst of a structural transformation that could sharpen its focus but also introduces execution risk.
On momentum, the contrast is stark. KDP's relative performance has been strong, supported by analyst upgrades, a new 52-week high, and clearly defined catalysts around its separation and product pipeline. PEP, meanwhile, has lagged the consumer staples sector year to date, weighed down by a North American turnaround, margin compression, and downward earnings revisions.
Risk profiles also diverge. KDP faces a high dividend payout ratio, elevated commodity exposure in coffee, and the complexity of separating two businesses. PEP contends with softer domestic demand, activist investor pressure, and rising costs, though its scale, global diversification, and 54-year dividend growth record provide defensive ballast. Sector exposure is similar—both are consumer staples—but KDP offers a more restructuring-driven, domestically concentrated profile, while PEP provides broader geographic diversification.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative strength, and forward catalysts, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward KDP in this comparison. The stock's uptrend toward 52-week highs, constructive analyst coverage, and clearly defined separation catalysts contrast with PEP's position near 52-week lows and its reduced earnings guidance. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: KDP's transformation carries execution and dividend-sustainability risks, while PEP's discounted valuation and strong international business could support a recovery. The AI's preference for KDP reflects a relative-momentum and catalyst-driven read of the current market environment rather than a judgment on long-term fundamentals.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KDP is a Hold and PEP is a Buy.
KDP in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for KDP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KDP as a result. In 41 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KDP just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where KDP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
KDP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KDP advanced for three days, in 173 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 105 of 209 cases where KDP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 15 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
KDP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. KDP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.002) is normal, around the industry mean (-4.128). P/E Ratio (37.192) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.797). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.971) is also within normal values, averaging (3.732). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.158) is also within normal values, averaging (2.785).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PEP in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PEP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PEP as a result. In 37 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 41%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PEP just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where PEP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 18 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
PEP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PEP advanced for three days, in 115 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 39%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PEP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
PEP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PEP entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PEP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.673) is normal, around the industry mean (-4.128). P/E Ratio (18.380) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.797). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.316) is also within normal values, averaging (3.732). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.901) is also within normal values, averaging (2.785).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PEP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
KDP | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 84 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PEP's Valuation (68) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as KDP (80). This means that PEP’s stock grew similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Profit vs Risk Rating (60) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PEP (84). This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to PEP’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's SMR Rating (20) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (82). This means that PEP’s stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (50). This means that KDP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PEP’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is significantly better than the same rating for PEP (81). This means that KDP’s stock grew significantly faster than PEP’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | PEP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 41% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 7 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 39% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PEP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PEP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а +5.23% price change this week, while PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +3.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +2.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+2.53% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
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KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +2.73% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 48% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 41% Loosely correlated | +1.44% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 40% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 38% Loosely correlated | +3.57% | ||
| COKE - KDP | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.39% | ||
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