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MAC vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Macerich (MAC) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MAC is a mid-cap mall real estate investment trust (REIT) executing a turnaround "Path Forward Plan," while SPG is the largest mall REIT in the U.S., operating at greater scale and profitability.
- SPG trades near $204 with a roughly 4.3% dividend yield and a market capitalization around $66 billion, versus MAC at about $23 with a near 3% yield and a market cap of roughly $6.8 billion.
- Both companies have reported improving leasing and net operating income (NOI) trends, but SPG demonstrates stronger, more consistent profitability and a larger liquidity cushion.
- MAC has drawn a wave of recent analyst upgrades, offering higher potential upside but carrying meaningfully more leverage and balance-sheet risk.
- Relative performance and market positioning favor SPG on stability, while MAC presents a higher-beta, catalyst-driven profile.
Introduction
Macerich (MAC) and Simon Property Group (SPG) are two of the most closely watched names in the retail real estate sector, yet they operate at very different points on the risk-reward spectrum. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a diversified, blue-chip mall operator against a smaller, more leveraged turnaround story. Both are real estate investment trusts (REITs), a structure that requires them to distribute most taxable income to shareholders, making relative performance, dividend yield, and balance-sheet strength central to any evaluation. Traders seeking momentum and catalysts may find MAC compelling, while income-oriented investors often gravitate toward SPG.
MAC Overview and Recent Performance
The Macerich Company owns and operates a concentrated portfolio of roughly 39 regional and community shopping centers, weighted toward high-barrier, densely populated coastal and Sun Belt markets such as California, the Pacific Northwest, and the New York-to-Washington corridor. In recent weeks the company has been executing its "Path Forward Plan," a multi-year initiative to elevate merchandising, drive leasing, and reduce leverage.
Recent market activity reflects a steady flow of constructive catalysts. Macerich reported second-quarter funds from operations (FFO) — a key REIT earnings measure — of $0.35 per share, with go-forward portfolio NOI up 3.8% and a signed-not-open (SNO) tenant pipeline reaching $124 million. Leased occupancy stood near 94%, with go-forward portfolio sales productivity climbing to about $954 per square foot. The company also closed the $260 million acquisition of Annapolis Mall in Maryland, adding repositioning upside. Analysts have responded positively, with J.P. Morgan, Evercore ISI, and Piper Sandler all issuing upgrades in recent months. That said, MAC remains more highly leveraged and more exposed to challenged retail trade areas, factors that temper the otherwise improving narrative.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group is the largest mall owner and operator in the United States, with a portfolio spanning premier malls, Premium Outlets, and The Mills across North America, Europe, and Asia. Its scale, diversified tenant base, and international footprint make it a benchmark for the entire retail real estate sector. In recent quarters the company has delivered consistent operational momentum, posting second-quarter Real Estate FFO of $3.29 per share, up 7.9% year over year, and raising its full-year 2026 FFO guidance to a range of $13.20 to $13.30 per share.
Recent performance has been underpinned by firm fundamentals. U.S. Malls and Premium Outlets occupancy held at 96%, base minimum rent per square foot rose 6.3% to $62.42, and retailer sales productivity jumped 13.9% to $838 per square foot. SPG also raised its quarterly dividend to $2.25 per share and ended the period with approximately $9.3 billion in liquidity. While the stock has pulled back modestly in recent weeks after strong gains, the broader picture is one of stable earnings power, disciplined capital allocation, and a durable, well-covered dividend.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is scale and financial positioning. SPG generates substantially higher revenue and FFO, carries a larger liquidity reserve of roughly $9.3 billion, and maintains stronger occupancy at 96%. MAC, by contrast, operates a much smaller footprint with lower occupancy and higher leverage, making it more sensitive to interest-rate moves and refinancing conditions.
On growth and catalysts, the trade-off reverses somewhat. MAC offers a more concentrated, event-driven story built around its leasing pipeline, asset dispositions, and recent acquisitions, which has attracted a flurry of analyst upgrades. SPG delivers steadier, single-digit-percentage FFO growth but less dramatic upside potential. In terms of market sentiment, SPG is viewed as a defensive, income-generating blue chip, while MAC is treated as a higher-risk turnaround with greater dispersion in analyst price targets and a smaller dividend yield relative to its yield-focused peer.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, earnings momentum, and the durability of catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SPG as the more stable, higher-conviction position in the current environment. Its consistent FFO growth, rising dividend, and substantial liquidity suggest more reliable trend alignment. That said, MAC presents a stronger catalyst-rich momentum profile, and under improving retail fundamentals its turnaround could justify greater relative upside. The AI's preference is therefore probabilistic rather than absolute, reflecting SPG's steadier positioning while acknowledging MAC's higher-beta opportunity set.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
These two companies, Simon Property Group (SPG) and the Macerich Company (MAC), are real estate investment trusts (REITs) which invest primarily in shopping mall properties. SPG is the largest owner of mall properties in the US, and it once made an offer to buy out the smaller MAC. At the time, the offer was rejected, with MAC shareholders claiming that SPG was undervaluing the company with their offer which would have totaled about $22B with the assumption of debt. One might wonder if they regret that decision, since MAC’s enterprise value at the time of this writing is about $8B. The performance of both companies in the past year has been comparable in terms of price action, as one might expect with their holdings being so similar, but SPG’s dividend is slightly more enticing.
MAC sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 12, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for MAC moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 45 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MAC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MAC just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where MAC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAC advanced for three days, in 219 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
MAC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MAC as a result. In 58 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for MAC entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.303) is normal, around the industry mean (2.663). MAC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-34.788) as compared to the industry average of (34.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (345.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.807) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SPG's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for SPG moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 16 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPG as a result. In 63 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPG just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPG advanced for three days, in 191 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
SPG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPG entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SPG's P/B Ratio (15.127) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.662). P/E Ratio (14.498) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.750). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.576) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (370.996) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.515) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
MAC | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MAC's Valuation (55) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (100). This means that MAC’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as MAC (53). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to MAC’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (12) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for MAC (92). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than MAC’s over the last 12 months.
MAC's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (50). This means that MAC’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
MAC's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (87). This means that MAC’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| MAC | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 1 day ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 1 day ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MAC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SPG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MAC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MAC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MAC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MAC (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) experienced а 0.00% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +0.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was -1.17%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
MAC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (-1.17% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
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MAC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MAC has been closely correlated with CUZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MAC jumps, then CUZ could also see price increases.