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MAC vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Macerich Company (MAC) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MAC and SPG are both retail-focused real estate investment trusts (REITs) that own and operate shopping malls, yet they diverge sharply in scale, financial strength, and market positioning.
- Simon Property Group (SPG) holds an A- investment-grade credit rating with net debt-to-EBITDA near 5.5x, while Macerich (MAC) carries below-investment-grade status with leverage exceeding 8.0x.
- Occupancy and rental metrics favor SPG, with 96.4% portfolio occupancy and base rent of $60.97 per square foot, compared to MAC's 94% occupancy and a more concentrated, higher-risk portfolio.
- MAC has delivered positive leasing momentum under its "Path Forward Plan" but remains unprofitable on a net income basis, whereas SPG generates strong and growing net income alongside record Real Estate FFO (Funds From Operations, a key REIT earnings metric).
- Dividend reliability offers a stark contrast: SPG raised its quarterly payout to $2.20 per share, while MAC maintains a modest $0.17 quarterly dividend amid ongoing net losses.
- For risk-tolerant investors, MAC offers a potential turnaround story; for those prioritizing stability and income durability, SPG represents the blue-chip alternative in the retail REIT space.
Introduction
Comparing MAC (The Macerich Company) and SPG (Simon Property Group) is a study in contrasts within the same industry. Both are retail REITs that own and manage high-quality shopping centers across the United States, yet they operate at vastly different scales and with fundamentally different balance-sheet profiles. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors evaluating exposure to brick-and-mortar retail real estate at a time when consumer spending patterns, interest rate expectations, and the evolution of omnichannel commerce continue to reshape the sector. Whether seeking a blue-chip income play or a higher-risk turnaround opportunity, understanding how these two mall operators stack up against each other can sharpen portfolio decision-making.
MAC Overview and Recent Performance
The Macerich Company (MAC) is a self-managed REIT that owns, operates, and develops approximately 39 million square feet of retail real estate, concentrated primarily in densely populated U.S. markets such as California, the Pacific Northwest, Phoenix/Scottsdale, and the New York-to-Washington, D.C. corridor. The company's portfolio consists of roughly 38 regional retail centers, many of which are considered Class A malls with high barriers to entry and elevated tenant sales productivity.
In recent quarters, MAC has demonstrated measurable operational progress under its "Path Forward Plan," a strategic initiative centered on leasing momentum, asset dispositions, and balance-sheet repair. Portfolio tenant sales per square foot for small-shop spaces reached $881 in the trailing twelve months, reflecting healthy consumer demand at its properties. The company signed a record 7.1 million square feet of leases in fiscal 2025, producing positive re-leasing spreads of 6.7% — marking the 17th consecutive quarter of favorable rent growth on new and renewed leases. Go-Forward Portfolio Center NOI (Net Operating Income) increased 1.8% year-over-year for the full year.
Despite these operational gains, MAC continues to face significant financial headwinds. The company posted a net loss for the full year 2025, and its debt-to-EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) ratio remains elevated above 8.0x, well above the REIT sector average. The below-investment-grade credit profile constrains financial flexibility, and the company's beta of approximately 2.25 underscores its heightened sensitivity to broader market swings. Recent market activity has seen MAC shares trade within a wide 52-week range, reflecting both optimism around the turnaround narrative and concern about macroeconomic risks — including tariff-related pressure on retail tenants and consumer discretionary spending.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG) is the largest publicly traded retail REIT in the world, with a portfolio spanning approximately 229 properties across the United States, Asia, Europe, and Canada. The company owns premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations, including its well-known Premium Outlets platform and, following the completion of its acquisition of the remaining interest in Taubman Realty Group, an even more fortified position in the high-end mall segment.
SPG's recent financial performance underscores the advantages of scale and financial discipline. For the full year 2025, the company reported record Real Estate FFO of $4.8 billion, or $12.73 per diluted share, representing 4.0% year-over-year growth. Domestic property NOI rose 4.4%, and portfolio NOI climbed 4.7%. Occupancy held firm at 96.4%, while base minimum rent per square foot reached $60.97, an increase of 4.7% from the prior year. Retailer sales per square foot surged 8.1% to $799, signaling robust tenant health across the portfolio. Net income attributable to common stockholders reached $4.6 billion for the year, bolstered by a non-cash gain tied to the Taubman acquisition.
The company's balance sheet remains a defining strength. With approximately $9.1 billion in liquidity, an A- credit rating, and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 5.5x, SPG enjoys a cost-of-capital advantage over most competitors. The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $2.20 per share for the first quarter of 2026, a 4.8% year-over-year increase. SPG has now maintained and grown dividend payments for over three decades. The company issued 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance in the range of $13.00 to $13.25 per diluted share, reflecting continued confidence in operational momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate difference between MAC and SPG is scale. SPG's portfolio is roughly five times larger by property count and generates dramatically higher revenue, net income, and free cash flow. This scale translates into tangible competitive advantages — stronger negotiating power with tenants, lower relative borrowing costs, and the ability to self-fund redevelopment projects without straining the balance sheet. MAC, by contrast, operates a concentrated portfolio of high-quality assets but with far less diversification and financial cushion.
Balance-sheet strength represents the most critical point of divergence. SPG's A- credit rating and net debt-to-EBITDA of approximately 5.5x provide ample capacity to pursue acquisitions, fund mixed-use redevelopments, and return capital to shareholders. MAC's below-investment-grade rating and leverage above 8.0x constrain its strategic options and make the company more vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and refinancing risk. This disparity was underscored in recent market downturns tied to tariff concerns, where MAC declined more sharply than SPG, reflecting its higher beta and greater sensitivity to risk-off sentiment.
On operational metrics, both companies are performing well by historical standards, but SPG holds the edge. SPG's occupancy of 96.4% and base rent of $60.97 per square foot reflect superior pricing power, while its 8.1% increase in retailer sales per square foot suggests robust tenant demand. MAC's 94% occupancy and $881 in small-shop tenant sales per square foot are respectable, particularly for a higher-beta name, but the company has yet to convert leasing momentum into consistent profitability.
Growth drivers also differ. SPG is pursuing a densification strategy — transforming traditional malls into mixed-use destinations with residential, office, and hotel components — funded by internally generated cash flow. MAC is focused on a more foundational turnaround: asset sales, deleveraging, and lease-up of vacated anchor spaces. Both strategies have merit, but SPG's path is incremental and lower-risk, while MAC's is binary and execution-dependent.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — including trend consistency, balance-sheet quality, earnings stability, and relative market positioning — Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor SPG in the current market environment. The combination of record Real Estate FFO, an investment-grade balance sheet, a growing and well-covered dividend, and strong operational momentum across both domestic and international properties creates a more stable and predictable trend profile. MAC's leasing progress and strategic repositioning efforts are noteworthy and could, if successfully executed, lead to a meaningful re-rating over time. However, the elevated leverage, ongoing net losses, and higher volatility introduce a wider range of potential outcomes, reducing the probability of a sustained trend relative to SPG. In probabilistic terms, SPG's risk-adjusted trend profile appears more favorable for investors seeking consistency, while MAC may appeal to those with a higher risk tolerance and a longer time horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
These two companies, Simon Property Group (SPG) and the Macerich Company (MAC), are real estate investment trusts (REITs) which invest primarily in shopping mall properties. SPG is the largest owner of mall properties in the US, and it once made an offer to buy out the smaller MAC. At the time, the offer was rejected, with MAC shareholders claiming that SPG was undervaluing the company with their offer which would have totaled about $22B with the assumption of debt. One might wonder if they regret that decision, since MAC’s enterprise value at the time of this writing is about $8B. The performance of both companies in the past year has been comparable in terms of price action, as one might expect with their holdings being so similar, but SPG’s dividend is slightly more enticing.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MAC’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileSPG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- MAC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MAC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MAC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MAC (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) experienced а -0.35% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +0.47% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was -2.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
MAC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (-2.06% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
| MAC | SPG | MAC / SPG | |
| Capitalization | 7.32B | 74.5B | 10% |
| EBITDA | 450M | 8.23B | 5% |
| Gain YTD | 42.156 | 26.942 | 156% |
| P/E Ratio | 55.89 | 15.98 | 350% |
| Revenue | 1.01B | 6.65B | 15% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 5B | 29B | 17% |
MAC | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 97 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MAC's Valuation (83) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (96). This means that MAC’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as MAC (50). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to MAC’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for MAC (95). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than MAC’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as MAC (39). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to MAC’s over the last 12 months.
MAC's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (87). This means that MAC’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| MAC | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 72% | 10 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 49% |
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MAC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MAC has been closely correlated with SPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MAC jumps, then SPG could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with SKT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then SKT could also see price increases.