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MCD vs YUM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? McDonald's (MCD) vs. Yum! Brands (YUM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MCD runs a heavily franchised royalty-and-property model (~95% franchised, roughly 46,000 restaurants), while YUM operates a diversified portfolio—KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger Grill—across more than 63,000 locations in 155 countries.
- Relative performance has diverged in 2026: MCD shares have pulled back sharply year to date, while YUM has held up better and trades at a meaningfully richer valuation multiple.
- MCD's "McValue" platform drove a strong finish to 2025, but momentum has cooled, with U.S. comparable sales moderating in recent quarters.
- YUM's growth is anchored by Taco Bell's outsized same-store sales gains and record KFC unit expansion, offset by persistent weakness at Pizza Hut.
- Both stocks are seen as defensive consumer holdings, but they trade at very different prices relative to earnings and offer different growth and dividend profiles.
Introduction
McDonald's and Yum! Brands are two of the largest quick-service restaurant (QSR) franchisors in the world, yet they present investors with very different business structures and growth narratives. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a global value-oriented burger franchise against a multi-brand portfolio spanning chicken, Mexican-inspired food, and pizza. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and near-term catalysts can help clarify which name better fits a defensive income strategy versus a higher-growth, higher-multiple profile. The analysis below focuses on recent developments, using broader timeframes so the comparison remains useful beyond any single trading session.
MCD Overview and Recent Performance
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is best understood less as a restaurant operator and more as a royalty and real estate company layered atop a global brand. About 95% of its roughly 46,000 locations are franchised, which generates high-margin rent and royalty income and underpins a 50-year streak of consecutive annual dividend increases. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached roughly $26.9 billion, with global comparable sales up about 3.1%.
The stock's recent behavior has been mixed. A permanent "McValue" platform—including a $5 meal bundle—helped drive U.S. comparable sales up 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a clear signal that value pricing resonated with price-sensitive consumers. However, that momentum has cooled in subsequent quarters, with U.S. comparable sales easing to around 0.8% in mid-2026 and analysts trimming price targets. Shares pulled back meaningfully through 2026, leaving the stock near 18 times forward earnings with a dividend yield above 3%. Broader consumer softness, a proposed class action over an AI pricing tool, and franchisee cost concerns have all weighed on sentiment in recent weeks.
YUM Overview and Recent Performance
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a global franchisor whose portfolio spans KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger Grill across more than 63,000 restaurants in 155 countries and territories. Growth is anchored by its long-term algorithm targeting roughly 5% annual unit growth, 7% system sales growth, and at least 8% core operating profit growth over time.
Recent performance has been led by Taco Bell, which posted same-store sales growth near 7–8% in recent quarters, and by KFC, which recorded its best-ever year for unit openings. Digital adoption is a key theme, with roughly 60% of system sales now flowing through digital channels. The notable soft spot is Pizza Hut, where comparable sales have been flat to slightly negative, prompting an ongoing strategic review. Financially, fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.73 rose about 8% but came in slightly below consensus, while revenue beat expectations. The board also raised the quarterly dividend by 6%. In contrast to MCD, YUM shares have generally held up better in 2026 and currently trade near a premium to 24 times forward earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is structure. MCD is a single-brand, scale-driven royalty business that monetizes real estate and systemwide sales, producing operating margins in the mid-40s but relatively modest top-line growth. YUM is a multi-brand franchisor with a more diversified growth engine—Taco Bell and KFC are expanding, while Pizza Hut and Habit Burger lag—giving it a higher growth ceiling but also more uneven brand-level execution.
In terms of recent momentum, YUM has been the steadier performer, supported by Taco Bell's market share gains and strong international unit development. MCD's story has been more cyclical: a powerful value-led rebound in late 2025 followed by moderating U.S. comparable sales and a significant de-rating of the share price in 2026. Risk factors also differ. MCD faces value-war margin pressure, franchisee profitability concerns, and a pending AI-pricing lawsuit. YUM's key risks include Pizza Hut's strategic uncertainty, weaker demand in certain KFC markets, and a valuation multiple that leaves less room for disappointment.
On valuation, MCD trades near 18 times forward earnings with a yield above 3%, while YUM trades near 24 times forward earnings with a smaller dividend. That gap reflects the market pricing YUM's faster unit and system-sales growth against MCD's slower, more defensive cash-flow profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor YUM at present, though with important caveats. YUM's relative strength has been more consistent, supported by clearer catalysts in Taco Bell's same-store sales momentum, record KFC unit growth, and accelerating digital sales. MCD, by contrast, has shown trend inconsistency—a strong late-2025 surge followed by softening comparable sales and a sharp price pullback—which tends to weaken an AI model's confidence in a sustained trend. That said, MCD's lower valuation and defensive dividend profile could make it comparatively attractive on a probabilistic risk-reward basis for income-oriented strategies. The verdict is best read as a lean rather than a definitive call: YUM currently presents more stable momentum and catalysts, while MCD offers value and yield but carries more near-term uncertainty.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MCD is a StrongBuy and YUM is a StrongBuy.
MCD's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCD turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCD as a result. In 39 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
Following a +1.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCD advanced for three days, in 133 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MCD moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 7 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 25%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
MCD moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
MCD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MCD entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MCD's P/B Ratio (-172.036) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (-0.486). P/E Ratio (20.118) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.656). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.018) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.051) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.402) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MCD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MCD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
Momentum Indicator for YUM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
YUM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 42 of the 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 47%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for YUM just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where YUM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 41%.
YUM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for YUM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 36%.
Following a +1.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where YUM advanced for three days, in 144 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 66 of 181 cases where YUM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 36%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for YUM moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 47%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YUM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
YUM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. YUM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-5.748) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.486). P/E Ratio (18.736) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.656). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.725) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.051) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.413) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MCD | YUM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 10 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MCD's Valuation (3) in the Restaurants industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YUM (66). This means that MCD’s stock grew somewhat faster than YUM’s over the last 12 months.
YUM's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Restaurants industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MCD (81). This means that YUM’s stock grew somewhat faster than MCD’s over the last 12 months.
MCD's SMR Rating (7) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as YUM (10). This means that MCD’s stock grew similarly to YUM’s over the last 12 months.
YUM's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as MCD (59). This means that YUM’s stock grew similarly to MCD’s over the last 12 months.
MCD's P/E Growth Rating (70) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as YUM (80). This means that MCD’s stock grew similarly to YUM’s over the last 12 months.
| MCD | YUM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 25% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 35% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 42% | 12 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 44% | 6 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 36% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCD’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while YUM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MCD’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- YUM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCD’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YUM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCD’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- YUM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MCD (@Restaurants) experienced а +2.26% price change this week, while YUM (@Restaurants) price change was -0.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Restaurants industry was -2.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.22%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCD is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
YUM is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Restaurants (-2.77% weekly)The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.
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MCD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCD has been loosely correlated with YUM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MCD jumps, then YUM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 100% | -1.65% | ||
| YUM - MCD | 57% Loosely correlated | -3.08% | ||
| QSR - MCD | 36% Loosely correlated | -1.40% | ||
| DRI - MCD | 36% Loosely correlated | -2.37% | ||
| YUMC - MCD | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.49% | ||
| SBUX - MCD | 31% Poorly correlated | -1.09% | ||
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YUM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YUM has been loosely correlated with MCD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if YUM jumps, then MCD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To YUM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | 100% | -3.08% | ||
| MCD - YUM | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.65% | ||
| FRSH - YUM | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.11% | ||
| DRI - YUM | 35% Loosely correlated | -2.37% | ||
| QSR - YUM | 35% Loosely correlated | -1.40% | ||
| YUMC - YUM | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
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