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MCHP vs STM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Microchip Technology (MCHP) vs. STMicroelectronics (STM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MCHP beat Wall Street estimates for its September-quarter results but guided December-quarter sales below consensus, triggering a sharp sell-off in recent sessions.
- STM posted roughly 18% year-over-year revenue growth with a book-to-bill ratio well above 2 in key end markets, pointing to strengthening demand.
- Both are major semiconductor suppliers, but their exposure differs: MCHP leans on microcontrollers and analog chips for industrial and automotive customers, while STM adds momentum in silicon photonics and AI (artificial intelligence) data center products.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency and near-term catalysts, STM is currently the favored ticker in this comparison.
- For deeper coverage, explore MCHP Major News and MCHP Today's Price Move, as well as STM Major News and STM Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently performing well, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors and traders evaluating the semiconductor sector often weigh established names that compete for the same industrial, automotive, and data center budgets. MCHP (Microchip Technology) and STM (STMicroelectronics) both operate as broad-based chipmakers, yet their recent stock behavior and growth drivers have diverged meaningfully. This stock comparison examines relative performance, business positioning, and current sentiment to help readers understand how each company is navigating the present market environment. The analysis is especially relevant for investors seeking exposure to embedded processing, analog semiconductors, and emerging AI infrastructure demand.
MCHP Overview and Recent Performance
MCHP, or Microchip Technology, is a broadline semiconductor supplier headquartered in Chandler, Arizona. The company designs and sells mixed-signal microcontrollers (MCUs, the small programmable chips that control devices), analog products, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs, chips that can be reconfigured after manufacturing), and memory devices, with significant reach into automotive, industrial, computing, and communications applications.
In recent weeks, MCHP's shares have come under notable pressure. The company reported September-quarter net sales of $1.62 billion, up more than 40% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that exceeded consensus estimates. However, management's December-quarter guidance, which pointed to sales roughly flat to modestly lower versus the September quarter, landed below the midpoint of analyst expectations. Executives cited one-time licensing revenue that is not expected to recur and supply-chain constraints, including stretched lead times at foundries and assembly partners, that limit its ability to fulfill a substantial high-margin backlog. This cautious outlook triggered a sharp decline in the stock, extending a slide from its earlier 52-week high. Sentiment has been further shaped by analyst price-target reductions tied to near-term margin pressure, even as several firms retain positive long-term ratings.
STM Overview and Recent Performance
STM, or STMicroelectronics, is an integrated device manufacturer (a company that both designs and fabricates its own chips) headquartered in Geneva, with deep roots across Europe. Its portfolio spans analog, power, and discrete semiconductors; microcontrollers and digital ICs (integrated circuits); micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS, tiny sensors and actuators); and radio-frequency (RF) and optical communications products. STM serves automotive, industrial, personal electronics, and communications-equipment customers.
STM's recent performance reflects a recovery that has shifted from inventory correction toward supply-constrained growth. In its latest reported quarter, net revenue rose roughly 18% year over year to about $3.76 billion, while gross margin expanded by more than 400 basis points (percentage points) from the prior year. Management reported a book-to-bill ratio—a measure comparing new orders to shipments—well above 1 overall and above 2 in communications equipment, computer peripherals, and industrial markets. The company's AI data center revenue, driven largely by silicon photonics and MCUs, is expected to reach roughly $1.3 billion in 2026, with an ambition above $2 billion in 2027. These factors have supported a more constructive tone around STM even as its gross margin remains below the company's long-term target model.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates a large ecosystem of AI trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers. Because only a fraction of these automated strategies are well suited to any given market regime, Tickeron curates a dedicated Trending AI Robots section highlighting the bots that currently stand out. Each bot has its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and universe of tickers, so the page lets users filter and compare approaches rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all system. If you are interested in how algorithmic strategies are interpreting names like MCHP and STM, the Trending AI Robots page is a practical starting point for exploring current leaders.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ in several important dimensions. MCHP carries a higher gross margin—around 67% in its latest quarter—and a comparatively strong balance-sheet profile with an attractive dividend yield. Its challenge is execution: supply constraints are limiting its ability to convert a growing backlog into near-term revenue, and guidance disappointed the market. In contrast, STM is growing revenue at a double-digit pace and generating strong order momentum, particularly in AI data center and industrial markets, but operates with a materially lower gross margin near 37% as it restructures its manufacturing footprint and closes legacy fabs.
On sector exposure, MCHP is weighted toward microcontrollers and analog products serving industrial and automotive end markets, while STM adds a distinct growth leg in silicon photonics and RF optical communications. In terms of market sentiment, MCHP has experienced sharper recent volatility tied to guidance and supply concerns, whereas STM's bookings and backlog have improved visibility. The trade-off, in short, is between MCHP's profitability and capital returns versus STM's momentum and exposure to fast-growing AI infrastructure demand.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI framework currently leans toward STM in this comparison. The company's rising book-to-bill ratio, double-digit revenue growth, and expanding AI data center opportunity provide a more consistent forward catalyst set than the supply-constrained, guidance-driven uncertainty currently surrounding MCHP. This is expressed as a probabilistic, relative preference rather than a definitive claim: market conditions can shift quickly, and each company retains distinct strengths that may appeal to different investor objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MCHP is a Hold and STM is a StrongBuy.
MCHP in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MCHP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MCHP as a result. In 77 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MCHP turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
MCHP moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCHP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for MCHP entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MCHP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCHP advanced for three days, in 194 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
MCHP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MCHP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.912) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (85.809) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.233) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.446) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MCHP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
STM in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
STM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 36 of 42 cases where STM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where STM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 60 cases where STM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STM just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where STM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +3.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STM advanced for three days, in 205 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on STM as a result. In 74 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
STM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The 50-day moving average for STM moved below the 200-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for STM entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.027) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). STM's P/E Ratio (-834.400) is considerably lower than the industry average of (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.195) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.370) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MCHP | STM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 88 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
STM's Valuation (1) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for MCHP (80). This means that STM’s stock grew significantly faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
STM's Profit vs Risk Rating (88) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MCHP (100). This means that STM’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's SMR Rating (82) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as STM (91). This means that MCHP’s stock grew similarly to STM’s over the last 12 months.
STM's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MCHP (63). This means that STM’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as STM (100). This means that MCHP’s stock grew similarly to STM’s over the last 12 months.
| MCHP | STM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 76% | 9 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCHP’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while STM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MCHP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- STM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCHP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCHP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- STM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MCHP (@Semiconductors) experienced а -4.27% price change this week, while STM (@Semiconductors) price change was +16.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was -29.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCHP is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
STM is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+6.74% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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MCHP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCHP has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCHP jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCHP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHP | 100% | -0.08% | ||
| MCHPP - MCHP | 99% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| TXN - MCHP | 81% Closely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| ADI - MCHP | 80% Closely correlated | +0.05% | ||
| NXPI - MCHP | 77% Closely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| ON - MCHP | 76% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
More | ||||
STM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STM has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STM jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STM | 100% | +0.43% | ||
| MCHPP - STM | 75% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| MCHP - STM | 75% Closely correlated | -0.08% | ||
| MPWR - STM | 70% Closely correlated | -2.12% | ||
| ADI - STM | 70% Closely correlated | +0.05% | ||
| ENTG - STM | 69% Closely correlated | -0.65% | ||
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