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MCHP vs ON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Microchip Technology (MCHP) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MCHP (Microchip Technology) is a microcontroller and embedded-solutions leader emerging from a deep cyclical downturn, with recent guidance raises and accelerating bookings.
- ON (ON Semiconductor, branded "onsemi") is an intelligent power and sensing specialist still managing soft automotive and industrial demand, but generating record free cash flow.
- Both companies are exposed to the same industrial and automotive cycles, but MCHP skews toward embedded control, while ON leans toward power semiconductors and AI data-center electrification.
- MCHP has shown stronger recent relative momentum, with earnings beats and raised forecasts; ON is prioritizing margin recovery, cost actions, and shareholder returns.
- Risk profiles differ: MCHP carries elevated debt and inventory, while ON faces underutilization charges and non-core business exits.
Introduction
Semiconductor investors frequently weigh cyclical recovery against structural growth, and few comparisons capture that tension better than MCHP and ON. Microchip Technology is a dominant supplier of microcontrollers and embedded control products, while ON Semiconductor focuses on intelligent power and sensing across automotive, industrial, and emerging AI infrastructure markets. Both have been navigating the post-pandemic inventory correction, making their relative performance a useful lens for traders and investors tracking the semiconductor cycle. This stock comparison examines each company's market positioning, recent momentum, and risk factors to help readers understand where each stands in the current environment.
MCHP Overview and Recent Performance
MCHP designs and manufactures microcontrollers (MCUs), analog, and field-programmable gate array (FPGA) solutions used across industrial, automotive, data-center, and consumer applications. The company is recovering from one of the deepest cyclical downturns in its history after pandemic-era demand for industrial chips collapsed beginning in late 2023.
In recent market activity, sentiment has turned notably more positive. Management raised its fiscal third-quarter net sales outlook to roughly $1.19 billion, above Wall Street estimates, citing recovering end markets, inventory adjustments, and strong order momentum. The stock responded by climbing to multi-month highs. This follows a series of earnings beats, including a recent quarter in which revenue rose about 38% year over year, and several analyst upgrades and price-target increases. A higher dividend yield relative to peers has also supported investor interest. However, elevated debt and still-high inventory levels remain areas of caution.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON, branded as onsemi, supplies intelligent power and sensing semiconductors, including silicon carbide (SiC) power devices, image sensors, and power-management components for automotive, industrial, and AI data-center markets. The company has been repositioning toward higher-margin products while exiting non-core revenue.
Recent performance reflects a demand environment that remains mixed. Full-year 2025 revenue declined to roughly $6.0 billion from $7.08 billion a year earlier, with automotive and industrial segments showing signs of stabilization but not yet a robust rebound. Management has emphasized cost discipline through its "FabRight" manufacturing program and portfolio rationalization, and the company generated record free cash flow of about $1.4 billion. A new $6 billion share-repurchase authorization and growing AI data-center power revenue—exceeding $250 million in 2025—have provided support. Still, factory underutilization charges and approximately $300 million of planned 2026 non-core exits have weighed on reported results.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies serve overlapping end markets but differ in business model and growth drivers. MCHP is anchored in microcontrollers and embedded control—a broad, diversified base tied closely to industrial automation and the Internet of Things. ON is more concentrated in power and sensing, with outsized exposure to automotive electrification and AI data-center power delivery.
On recent momentum, MCHP has been the stronger performer, with raised guidance, earnings beats, and a stock near multi-month highs. ON has demonstrated capital discipline and free-cash-flow strength, but its top line has been contracting amid inventory digestion and strategic exits.
Risk profiles also diverge. MCHP carries a heavier debt load and elevated channel inventory, which could delay margin recovery. ON faces underutilization costs from low factory utilization and near-term revenue headwinds from portfolio rationalization, though its balance sheet remains relatively conservative. Sector exposure is another contrast: MCHP offers broad industrial diversification, while ON carries greater concentration in automotive and AI power markets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MCHP in the current market environment. The stock has demonstrated more consistent recent trend strength, backed by consecutive earnings beats, upward guidance revisions, and improving bookings that signal a broadening cyclical recovery. ON retains a solid free-cash-flow profile and a credible AI power growth story, but its contracting revenue, underutilization charges, and strategic exits present more near-term headwinds. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: MCHP's relative positioning appears stronger on trend consistency and catalysts today, while ON's longer-term growth depends on a sustained recovery in automotive and AI data-center demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MCHP is a Hold and ON is a Buy.
MCHP in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MCHP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 54 cases where MCHP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MCHP as a result. In 75 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MCHP turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 83%.
MCHP moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCHP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for MCHP entered a downward trend on September 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +3.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCHP advanced for three days, in 193 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
MCHP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MCHP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.233) is normal, around the industry mean (6.022). P/E Ratio (108.897) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.769). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.233) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.446) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MCHP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
Aroon Indicator for ON shows an upward move is likely
ON's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 233 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 177 of the 233 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 48 of 65 cases where ON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +5.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in 223 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ON moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ON as a result. In 82 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ON turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 49 of the 60 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
ON moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ON crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The 50-day moving average for ON moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
ON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.897) is normal, around the industry mean (6.022). P/E Ratio (46.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.769). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.169) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.337) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
MCHP | ON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 46 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ON's Valuation (67) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MCHP (82). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Profit vs Risk Rating (79) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MCHP (100). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ON's SMR Rating (76) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MCHP (82). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (59). This means that MCHP’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (46) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MCHP (95). This means that ON’s stock grew somewhat faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
| MCHP | ON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 67% | 6 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCHP’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ON’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MCHP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCHP’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCHP’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
Price Growth
MCHP (@Semiconductors) experienced а +0.27% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +0.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -2.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -17.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.44%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCHP is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-2.36% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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MCHP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCHP has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCHP jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCHP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHP | 100% | -0.63% | ||
| MCHPP - MCHP | 99% Closely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| TXN - MCHP | 81% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| ADI - MCHP | 80% Closely correlated | +1.38% | ||
| NXPI - MCHP | 79% Closely correlated | -1.21% | ||
| ON - MCHP | 77% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
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ON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ON has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ON jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.