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MPWR vs TXN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) vs. Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Comparison
1. Key Takeaways
- MPWR and TXN are both semiconductor leaders riding a demand recovery, but they occupy different positions in the analog and power-management value chain.
- MPWR has delivered faster growth, propelled by AI (artificial intelligence) data center and communications demand, while TXN is benefiting from a broad cyclical rebound in industrial and automotive markets.
- MPWR trades at a significantly higher valuation — a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 70x — versus TXN in the mid-30s, reflecting divergent growth expectations.
- TXN is an integrated manufacturer (owning its own fabs) with a sizable dividend and recovering free cash flow (FCF), whereas MPWR is a fabless specialist with a lighter capital footprint.
- Both stocks show strong relative performance, but MPWR is more concentrated in AI while TXN offers broader end-market diversification.
2. Introduction
This stock comparison examines two prominent names in the semiconductor industry: Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Although both design chips that manage and regulate electrical power, they pursue different business models, growth drivers, and risk profiles. MPWR is a fast-growing, fabless power-management specialist tightly linked to AI infrastructure, while TXN is a diversified, vertically integrated analog giant with deep exposure to industrial and automotive markets. Investors weighing growth momentum against stability, or comparing valuation against earnings quality, may find this head-to-head useful for understanding each company's current market positioning and relative performance.
3. MPWR Overview and Recent Performance
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) designs high-performance power-management semiconductors and modules that regulate energy use across computing, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer systems. The company operates a fabless model, meaning it partners with third-party foundries rather than manufacturing its own chips.
Recent market activity has favored the stock, with shares advancing roughly 70% year-to-date and more than 150% over the trailing twelve months. In its latest reported quarter, revenue rose about 26% year over year to roughly $804 million, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $5.10. The strongest driver was the Enterprise Data segment — tied to AI servers — which grew nearly 98% and now represents about one-third of total sales. Communications revenue, driven by power solutions for optical modules and networking, also surged. Management subsequently raised its full-year Enterprise Data growth outlook to at least 85%. This momentum has led analysts to lift price targets substantially, though the shares now carry a premium forward P/E near 70x, which adds valuation-related risk.
4. TXN Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Instruments (TXN) is one of the world's largest analog semiconductor companies and an integrated device manufacturer (IDM), meaning it designs and fabricates its own chips. Its products span analog and embedded processing, with broad exposure to industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications, and data center markets.
TXN's recent performance reflects a cyclical recovery. In its latest reported quarter, revenue grew about 18.6% year over year to roughly $4.83 billion, while EPS reached $1.68, well above consensus estimates. Gross margin improved to about 58%, and industrial revenue climbed roughly 30% year over year. Crucially, trailing twelve-month free cash flow jumped to about $4.35 billion, up from roughly $1.72 billion a year earlier, as the company moves past the peak of a multi-year manufacturing build-out and begins to moderate capital expenditures (capex). Shares have risen strongly year-to-date, and analysts have responded with upgrades and higher price targets. The company continues to return substantial cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, though its growth is more cyclical and diversified than MPWR's.
5. Trending AI Robots
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6. Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between these two companies lies in their business models. MPWR is fabless and asset-light, which supports high margins and rapid scaling but leaves it dependent on foundry partners. TXN owns its manufacturing capacity, giving it supply-chain control and long-term cost advantages, though its capex-heavy strategy has temporarily pressured cash flow.
Growth drivers also differ. MPWR's momentum is concentrated in AI data center power and optical networking, a fast-growing but more volatile opportunity. TXN's recovery is broader, anchored in industrial and automotive markets plus an emerging data center angle, offering diversification but less explosive top-line growth. On valuation, MPWR's premium forward P/E reflects higher expected growth, while TXN's lower multiple reflects steadier, more cyclical earnings. Risk profiles mirror this: MPWR carries concentration and valuation risk, while TXN faces cyclicality and, in the near term, still-elevated inventory levels. Market sentiment has been constructive for both, but for different reasons — growth re-rating for MPWR versus a cash-flow and margin recovery story for TXN.
7. Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MPWR in the current environment, given its stronger momentum, accelerating AI-driven revenue growth, and upward earnings revisions. However, this assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: TXN's improving free cash flow, broad diversification, and lower valuation provide meaningful offsetting strengths. The choice ultimately depends on whether a trader prioritizes growth momentum and AI exposure or stability, diversification, and shareholder returns.
8. Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPWR is a StrongBuy and TXN is a Hold.
MPWR in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
MPWR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 34 of 39 cases where MPWR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPWR advanced for three days, in 247 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 222 of 284 cases where MPWR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MPWR moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPWR as a result. In 74 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPWR turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
MPWR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MPWR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for MPWR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPWR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MPWR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MPWR's P/B Ratio (14.383) is slightly higher than the industry average of (6.017). P/E Ratio (69.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.014) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.153) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
TXN in downward trend: price may drop because broke its higher Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026
TXN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 33 of the 45 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TXN moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TXN turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TXN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 61 cases where TXN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TXN as a result. In 56 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
TXN moved above its 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TXN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +3.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TXN advanced for three days, in 177 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 129 of 239 cases where TXN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. TXN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 29 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TXN's P/B Ratio (14.438) is slightly higher than the industry average of (6.017). P/E Ratio (43.070) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.991) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.255) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
MPWR | TXN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 29 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 29 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 32 | 29 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TXN's Valuation (80) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (85). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (39). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's SMR Rating (29) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (44). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPWR (63). This means that TXN’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (14). This means that MPWR’s stock grew similarly to TXN’s over the last 12 months.
| MPWR | TXN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 5 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPWR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TXN’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- MPWR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TXN’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPWR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TXN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPWR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 7 bearish.
- TXN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPWR (@Semiconductors) experienced а -5.84% price change this week, while TXN (@Semiconductors) price change was +0.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPWR is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TXN is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TXN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TXN has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TXN jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TXN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 100% | +1.86% | ||
| ADI - TXN | 82% Closely correlated | +1.38% | ||
| MCHPP - TXN | 82% Closely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| MCHP - TXN | 80% Closely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| ON - TXN | 75% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| NXPI - TXN | 70% Closely correlated | -1.21% | ||
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