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MTCH vs SMWB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Match Group (MTCH) vs. Similarweb (SMWB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Match Group (MTCH), a leader in online dating with a $9 billion market cap, shows profitability with trailing EPS (earnings per share) of $2.38 and YTD (year-to-date) gains of 21%, trading near its 52-week high.
- Similarweb (SMWB), a digital analytics provider with a $275 million market cap, remains loss-making at EPS of -$0.39 but boasts stronger YTD performance of 58% amid product launches.
- Recent market activity for MTCH reflects positive sentiment from a $100 million investment in Sniffies, a niche dating platform, ahead of Q1 earnings.
- SMWB gains traction from new retail intelligence tools and board changes, though it trades well below its 52-week high.
- Both stocks operate in digital ecosystems but differ in scale and risk, with MTCH offering stability and SMWB higher growth potential in analytics.
- AI-driven trading signals may tilt toward established performers amid volatile conditions.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines MTCH and SMWB, two tech firms navigating digital markets. Match Group dominates online dating subscriptions, while Similarweb delivers data analytics for business insights. Traders seeking relative performance in consumer tech versus SaaS (software-as-a-service) models, or investors eyeing momentum shifts, will find value here. Recent developments highlight contrasts in profitability, volatility, and strategic moves, aiding decisions on market positioning amid broader sector trends.
MTCH Overview and Recent Performance
Match Group (MTCH) operates a portfolio of dating platforms including Tinder and Hinge, generating revenue from subscriptions and in-app purchases across global markets. In recent market activity, shares have climbed 21% YTD to around $38.67, approaching the 52-week high of $39.20. This momentum stems from Q4 2025 results showing 2% revenue growth to $878 million and 14% Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rise to $370 million, alongside a strategic $100 million investment in Sniffies to expand into niche segments. Sentiment benefits from analyst expectations of EPS growth ahead of Q1 earnings, though user engagement challenges persist in a mature sector.
SMWB Overview and Recent Performance
Similarweb (SMWB) offers web and app intelligence platforms for benchmarking, audience analysis, and sales leads, serving enterprises in retail, finance, and media. Shares have surged 58% YTD to $3.14, reflecting volatility from a 52-week range of $2.22 to $10.75. Recent weeks feature product innovations like the Unified Retail Intelligence Suite with Amazon integration and a new board chairman, boosting visibility despite ongoing losses. Q4 2025 EPS turned positive at $0.03, but revenue growth trailed guidance due to deal delays. Upcoming Q1 results may clarify trajectory in a competitive analytics landscape.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MTCH’s consumer subscription model contrasts SMWB’s B2B SaaS analytics, with MTCH’s $3.49B revenue dwarfing SMWB’s $283M. Growth drivers differ: MTCH leverages user scale and acquisitions, while SMWB bets on AI-enhanced data tools amid high churn risks. Recent momentum favors SMWB’s percentage gains but MTCH shows steadier price action near highs. Risk profiles highlight MTCH’s beta of 1.3 and debt load versus SMWB’s 1.12 beta and cash position, though SMWB’s negative EBITDA signals profitability hurdles. Sector exposure ties both to digital shifts, but sentiment tilts toward MTCH’s track record versus SMWB’s speculative upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward MTCH for its trend consistency near 52-week highs, positive EPS, and catalysts like the Sniffies investment and earnings outlook. While SMWB exhibits stronger relative YTD momentum, its losses and volatility suggest higher uncertainty. This positioning favors MTCH in stable conditions, though shifts could occur post-earnings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTCH is a Hold and SMWB is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTCH’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileSMWB’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MTCH’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SMWB’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTCH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SMWB’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTCH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SMWB’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTCH (@Internet Software/Services) experienced а -1.95% price change this week, while SMWB (@Packaged Software) price change was -2.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Software/Services industry was -1.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.67%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.58%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTCH is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
SMWB is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Internet Software/Services (-1.19% weekly)Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.
@Packaged Software (-1.58% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
| MTCH | SMWB | MTCH / SMWB | |
| Capitalization | 8.22B | 449M | 1,831% |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | -9.73M | -10,735% |
| Gain YTD | 10.466 | -31.509 | -33% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.45 | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 3.52B | 289M | 1,218% |
| Total Cash | 1.02B | 65.3M | 1,567% |
| Total Debt | 3.97B | 39.4M | 10,086% |
MTCH | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| MTCH | SMWB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 77% | 7 days ago 85% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 90% |
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MTCH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTCH has been loosely correlated with CARG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MTCH jumps, then CARG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTCH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 100% | -0.59% | ||
| CARG - MTCH | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| Z - MTCH | 49% Loosely correlated | -5.64% | ||
| ZG - MTCH | 48% Loosely correlated | -6.28% | ||
| PPLI - MTCH | 45% Loosely correlated | -2.86% | ||
| SMWB - MTCH | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.81% | ||
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SMWB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMWB has been loosely correlated with TDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SMWB jumps, then TDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SMWB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMWB | 100% | +2.81% | ||
| TDC - SMWB | 50% Loosely correlated | -3.92% | ||
| DCBO - SMWB | 46% Loosely correlated | -2.67% | ||
| TWLO - SMWB | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.36% | ||
| DASH - SMWB | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| CPAY - SMWB | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.55% | ||
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