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MTH vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes (MTH) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTH and PHM are prominent U.S. homebuilders navigating elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure, but their scale, product mix, and balance-sheet strength diverge considerably.
- PHM (PulteGroup) is the nation's third-largest homebuilder with a diversified buyer base and a net debt-to-capital ratio of roughly 3%, while MTH (Meritage Homes) is a smaller, entry-level-focused builder carrying higher leverage.
- Recent quarters show a wider performance gap: MTH posted a double-digit revenue decline and withdrew forward guidance, whereas PHM reported a more contained margin slide alongside growing backlog.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on relative positioning, balance-sheet stability, and trend consistency, the AI would currently favor PHM over MTH.
- For deeper context, explore MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move, as well as PHM Major News and PHM Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently best suited to market conditions, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Homebuilders sit at the intersection of interest rates, consumer confidence, and demographic demand, making direct stock comparisons especially useful for investors tracking the housing cycle. MTH (Meritage Homes) and PHM (PulteGroup) operate in the same cyclical sector yet occupy distinct positions within it. Where Meritage concentrates on entry-level and first move-up buyers across the Sun Belt, PulteGroup spans a broader range of price points and geographies. This comparison is relevant to traders and investors seeking to understand how scale, product strategy, and financial flexibility translate into relative performance when affordability conditions tighten.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation, headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, ranks among the largest public U.S. homebuilders and specializes in energy-efficient, entry-level and first move-up homes. The company operates across roughly a dozen states, concentrated in Sun Belt and Southeastern markets. In recent weeks, MTH has faced notable headwinds. Its most recent quarterly results showed home closing revenue declining 17.9% year over year to about $1.17 billion, missing consensus estimates, while orders fell approximately 15%. Management withdrew forward guidance, citing unpredictable market conditions, and signaled that elevated incentives would persist. Analysts responded by trimming price targets, and shares have traded near the lower end of their 52-week range. Rising incentives, softer absorption, and a shrinking backlog have weighed on sentiment, even as the company maintains a solid cash position and continues returning capital to shareholders.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc., based in Atlanta, Georgia, is the third-largest homebuilder in the United States, with operations spanning more than 45 markets across 26 states. Its brand portfolio—including Pulte Homes, Centex, Del Webb, and DiVosta—serves first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers, a diversification that softens exposure to any single consumer segment. In recent market activity, PHM reported earnings that modestly missed expectations, with home sale revenue around $3.98 billion and a home sale gross margin near 24.8%. Notably, net new orders declined only about 6%, while unit backlog rose 4% to roughly 10,298 homes, providing a degree of revenue visibility. The company holds about $1.4 billion in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio near 3%, reflecting significant financial flexibility. Active share repurchases and a resilient margin profile have supported relative stability in the stock.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a focused selection from a much larger universe of automated trading strategies. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only those best aligned with current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. Each bot operates with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of tickers it trades, so the page highlights strategies with distinctive risk profiles and track records. For traders evaluating names such as MTH and PHM, reviewing the Trending AI Robots section can offer a systematic perspective on which signals are currently generating the strongest relative momentum.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies compete for the same homebuying dollars, their profiles differ sharply. PHM operates at roughly three times the revenue scale of MTH, and its mix skews toward move-up and active-adult buyers who are often less mortgage-rate-sensitive, frequently paying cash. MTH, by contrast, leans heavily on entry-level buyers who are generally more exposed to rising mortgage rates and incentive-driven pricing. On financial strength, PHM stands out with a net debt-to-capital ratio near 3% versus roughly 18.9% for MTH, granting PulteGroup greater room to invest through the cycle. Margin trends also diverge: PHM sustained a home sale gross margin near 24.8%, while MTH reported an adjusted margin closer to 17.9%. Finally, backlog momentum favors PHM, which grew its unit backlog, whereas MTH saw backlog contract. The key trade-off is PulteGroup's scale and stability against Meritage's greater operational leverage to any eventual housing recovery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, balance-sheet resilience, backlog direction, and margin durability, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward PHM as the more favorably positioned of the two tickers. The combination of a stronger net-debt profile, a more diversified buyer base, and a growing backlog suggests relatively greater stability under current market conditions. While MTH may offer higher sensitivity to a cyclical rebound, its recent revenue decline, shrinking backlog, and withdrawn guidance introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects observable positioning rather than a forecast of guaranteed returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Hold and PHM is a StrongBuy.
MTH saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 45 of the 57 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 54 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PHM in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PHM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 61 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 51%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.939) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (13.437) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
MTH | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (75). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (62). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (46). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (11). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 69% | 9 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 5 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +1.93% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+1.66% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| QSU | 3.53 | 0.40 | +12.78% |
| Defiance Daily Target 2X Long QS ETF (QSU) | |||
| DUSL | 74.80 | 7.86 | +11.73% |
| Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3X ETF (DUSL) | |||
| PZT | 21.68 | 0.07 | +0.32% |
| Invesco New York AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF (PZT) | |||
| JHCR | 24.64 | 0.05 | +0.20% |
| John Hancock Core Bond ETF (JHCR) | |||
| SDS | 56.03 | -2.73 | -4.65% |
| ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) | |||