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MTH vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTH and PHM are U.S. homebuilders facing the same macro pressures: elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and rising buyer incentives.
- PHM is the larger, more diversified operator across roughly 45 markets, while MTH is a mid-cap specialist concentrated in entry-level and first move-up homes across the Sun Belt and Southeast.
- Recent order trends have diverged: PHM has reported growing net new orders, while MTH has seen orders decline amid softer demand.
- Both companies are returning capital aggressively through buybacks and dividends, but PHM carries a notably lower debt-to-capital ratio and a more option-heavy land strategy.
- Analyst sentiment skews constructive on both names, though estimates have been trimmed across the sector as margins compress under higher incentives.
Introduction
Homebuilders occupy a unique position in today's market: structural housing undersupply supports a long-term growth story, while near-term affordability pressure weighs on demand and margins. Comparing MTH and PHM offers investors a clear contrast between a focused, entry-level builder and a diversified national homebuilder. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors seeking to gauge how scale, buyer mix, balance-sheet strength, and market positioning translate into relative performance during a soft housing cycle.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is the fifth-largest public U.S. homebuilder by closings, specializing in energy-efficient, entry-level and first move-up homes. The company operates across 12 states, concentrated in Sun Belt and Southeastern markets such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Carolinas.
In recent weeks, MTH has reflected the sector's affordability headwinds. Its most recent quarterly results showed home closing revenue declining roughly 14% year over year, with earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit divided by shares outstanding) falling about a third. Management has cited softer demand, higher mortgage rates, and elevated incentives as key pressures, while noting operational discipline through sub-110-day build cycles, improved direct costs, and a 9% increase in active community count. Orders have declined and absorption rates have softened in select markets, prompting several analysts to lower price targets. Sentiment remains cautious, with the stock trading below levels seen earlier in the year.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), based in Atlanta, is one of America's largest homebuilders, operating in more than 45 markets through brands including Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. This brand portfolio allows the company to serve first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers simultaneously.
Recent market activity for PHM has shown a mixed but comparatively resilient picture. Quarterly revenue and earnings declined year over year as closings and average selling prices softened, yet the company beat consensus estimates and reported growing net new orders, including strength in Florida and active-adult segments. Gross margin has compressed on higher incentives but remains above that of many peers, and the company has continued aggressive share repurchases while maintaining a low debt-to-capital ratio. This balance of capital returns, order growth, and financial flexibility has kept investor sentiment broadly supportive, even as estimates for 2026 earnings have been trimmed.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most defining contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification. PHM generates substantially higher revenue across a broader geographic footprint and buyer mix, which tends to smooth volatility relative to a more concentrated operator. MTH, by comparison, is more heavily levered to the entry-level buyer and Sun Belt demand, making it more sensitive to mortgage-rate swings and incentive competition.
Order momentum currently favors PHM, which has reported net new order growth, whereas MTH has posted order declines and softer absorption. Both face the same core risk factor: if mortgage rates stay elevated, incentives could rise further and compress margins. Balance-sheet positioning also differs—PHM operates with a lower debt-to-capital ratio and holds much of its land through option agreements, while MTH carries more land on its balance sheet, exposing it to land-cost headwinds in the near term.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, order momentum, balance-sheet strength, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward PHM in the current environment. The company's growing orders, diversified buyer base, lower leverage, and steadier capital-return profile suggest more consistent trend stability than MTH, whose results have shown greater sensitivity to affordability and incentive pressures. That said, MTH's entry-level focus and operational efficiency could offer comparatively greater torque if rates ease and demand recovers. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, data-driven view of relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Buy and PHM is a Hold.
MTH's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for MTH moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 61 cases where MTH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +0.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 206 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
MTH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTH as a result. In 59 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The 50-day moving average for MTH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.776) is normal, around the industry mean (1.621). P/E Ratio (12.470) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.857). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MTH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PHM's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 16 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 13 of the 16 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 58 cases where PHM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +3.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
PHM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PHM as a result. In 59 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.676) is normal, around the industry mean (1.621). P/E Ratio (11.616) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.857). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
MTH | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 82 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (72). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (77). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (73). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (20). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 10 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.40% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.11% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.