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MTH vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTH has outperformed PHM in recent weeks with a roughly 14% gain compared to PHM's 8%, amid a rebound in homebuilder sentiment.
- PHM boasts a larger market capitalization of about $24.5 billion versus MTH's $4.6 billion, offering greater scale and diversification in the homebuilding sector.
- Year-to-date, PHM leads with approximately 9% returns compared to MTH's 5.5%, reflecting stronger longer-term momentum.
- Both stocks face upcoming Q1 2026 earnings on April 23, with PHM anticipating declines in EPS (earnings per share) and revenue amid housing market pressures.
- Analyst price targets suggest modest upside for MTH around $70-80, while PHM averages over $135 with more Buy ratings.
- P/E ratios are similar (MTH 11x, PHM 11.5x), indicating comparable valuations in a cyclical industry sensitive to interest rates.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) are prominent players in the U.S. homebuilding sector, focusing on single-family homes amid fluctuating housing demand. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors tracking residential construction trends, interest rate impacts, and sector rotation opportunities. Traders may find value in their relative performance divergences, as both navigate affordability challenges and potential policy shifts. With recent market rebounds lifting homebuilders, understanding their business models, momentum, and risk profiles aids informed positioning in this volatile group.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) designs and builds single-family homes, emphasizing energy-efficient features primarily in high-growth Sunbelt markets like Texas, Arizona, and Florida. In recent market activity, MTH shares have surged about 14% over the past month, rebounding from earlier pressures to trade near $69. This uptick follows a year-to-date gain of roughly 5.5% and contrasts with a modest 2% annual return, influenced by housing affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Key developments include a 12% quarterly dividend increase to $0.48 per share and an upcoming Q1 2026 earnings call on April 23. Analyst adjustments, such as lowered price targets to $69-80, reflect caution, yet sentiment has improved with broader homebuilder strength.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, operates nationwide, delivering entry-level to luxury single-family homes and townhomes through brands like Pulte Homes and Del Webb. Recent weeks have seen PHM advance around 8%, trading near $127, supported by year-to-date returns of about 9% and 26-35% over the past year. Performance reflects resilience despite anticipated Q1 EPS and revenue dips, with catalysts including analyst upgrades and sector tailwinds like potential rate stabilization. Price targets average $135+, with recent tweaks to $140 Buy ratings. Dividend stands at $0.26 quarterly, underscoring steady shareholder returns amid cyclical headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, PHM benefits from national scale and brand diversity versus MTH’s Sunbelt concentration, providing PHM broader exposure but similar sensitivity to housing cycles. Growth drivers differ: PHM’s historical EPS expansion (10.9% annually) outpaces MTH’s (0.5%), tied to larger order backlogs. Recent momentum favors MTH’s sharper monthly rebound, while PHM holds superior YTD and one-year gains. Risk factors include interest rates and affordability for both, though MTH’s smaller size amplifies volatility (beta 1.17 vs. PHM 1.12). Sector exposure is identical (homebuilding), but market sentiment tilts to PHM via stronger analyst conviction and higher targets, positioning it for relative outperformance in stabilizing conditions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward PHM based on its scale advantages, consistent trend strength, positive analyst momentum, and better relative positioning despite near-term earnings hurdles. MTH shows short-term upside potential, but PHM’s stability and catalysts suggest higher probability of sustained gains in the prevailing homebuilder environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Hold and PHM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.36% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +19.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.24% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | PHM | MTH / PHM | |
| Capitalization | 5.05B | 24.2B | 21% |
| EBITDA | 522M | 2.79B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | 11.672 | 4.383 | 266% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.82 | 12.28 | 113% |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 16.8B | 33% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 2.28B | 84% |
MTH | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 33 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (7) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PHM (67). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (64). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (33) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (42). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (13). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 70% | 15 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 71% | 5 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% |
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.
PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.