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MTH vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTH has shown stronger recent price momentum than PHM, with an approximate 14% gain compared to 8% over recent weeks amid broader homebuilder sector recovery.
- Both companies operate in the residential construction sector as major U.S. homebuilders, with PHM maintaining a significantly larger market capitalization of approximately $24 billion versus MTH's roughly $5 billion.
- PHM benefits from greater scale, diversified geographic presence, and an expanded share repurchase authorization, while MTH has focused on credit facility enhancements and operational adjustments in a challenging interest-rate environment.
- Upcoming second-quarter earnings for PHM, scheduled for July 22, 2026, represent a key near-term catalyst that could influence relative sentiment.
- Sector exposure remains similar for both, with performance closely tied to housing demand, mortgage rates, and macroeconomic conditions affecting buyer affordability.
- Market positioning highlights a contrast between MTH's recent outperformance and PHM's established scale and capital-return initiatives.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) are two prominent publicly traded homebuilders whose stocks offer investors exposure to the U.S. residential construction sector. This comparison examines their recent performance, business profiles, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating relative opportunities within the homebuilding industry. The analysis is particularly relevant for those focused on sector rotation, housing market trends, or constructing diversified portfolios that include cyclical stocks sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand. Both equities trade on major exchanges and reflect broader economic indicators such as mortgage affordability and new-home sales data.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder by closings, focusing on entry-level and move-up single-family homes across multiple Sun Belt and Western markets. In recent market activity, MTH shares have exhibited stronger momentum relative to peers, posting gains of approximately 14% amid improving homebuilder sentiment. Key influences include operational updates such as the amendment of its credit facility to $980 million with an accordion feature, completed in late June 2026, which enhances financial flexibility. Earlier quarterly results reflected pressure from lower closing volumes and incentives, yet the company has maintained emphasis on land portfolio optimization and cost management in the prevailing higher-rate environment.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, offering homes across a wide price spectrum through brands including Pulte Homes, Centex, and Del Webb. In recent market activity, PHM shares have advanced approximately 8%, supported by its scale and capital allocation strategies. The company expanded its share repurchase authorization to $2.1 billion remaining capacity following first-quarter activity. Upcoming second-quarter 2026 earnings, set for release on July 22, 2026, are anticipated to provide updated visibility into closings, margins, and buyer demand. Performance has been shaped by ongoing focus on share buybacks, geographic diversification, and adaptation to interest-rate dynamics affecting housing affordability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, both MTH and PHM focus on single-family home construction, yet PHM operates at greater scale with a broader brand portfolio and national footprint. Growth drivers for each center on housing starts, buyer incentives, and land acquisition, though MTH has emphasized credit enhancements while PHM has prioritized share repurchases. Recent momentum favors MTH on a relative price basis, contrasting with PHM’s steadier profile tied to earnings visibility and capital returns. Risk factors include interest-rate sensitivity and inventory management for both, with PHM benefiting from lower debt-to-capital metrics. Sector exposure is nearly identical, but market sentiment has recently highlighted MTH’s outperformance against PHM’s larger capitalization and upcoming earnings event.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent trend consistency and relative price momentum, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic weighting to MTH over PHM in the near term. MTH’s stronger recent gains and credit facility adjustments suggest greater near-term alignment with prevailing sentiment in the homebuilder space, while PHM offers stability through scale and buyback activity ahead of its earnings release. This assessment reflects current positioning rather than any guarantee of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a StrongBuy and PHM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -3.77% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was -1.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.97% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | PHM | MTH / PHM | |
| Capitalization | 4.58B | 24.1B | 19% |
| EBITDA | 522M | 2.79B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | 8.204 | 8.314 | 99% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.63 | 12.92 | 113% |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 16.8B | 33% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 2.28B | 84% |
MTH | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (6) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PHM (63). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (64). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (79). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (58). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (17). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 1 day ago 57% |
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.