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GRBK vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GRBK (Green Brick Partners) delivered a year-over-year increase in net new home orders and sustained industry-leading gross margins in its latest quarter, while MTH (Meritage Homes) reported a double-digit revenue decline and withdrew its forward guidance.
- Both companies operate in the rate-sensitive U.S. homebuilding sector, but their geographic footprints and business models differ meaningfully, shaping divergent relative performance in recent weeks.
- Green Brick Partners carries a notably lower leverage profile and growing book value per share, while Meritage Homes remains larger by revenue and market capitalization.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, margin resilience, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor GRBK over MTH.
- You can find additional details on each company's GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move, as well as MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move.
- Explore curated Trending AI Robots to see which automated trading strategies are currently favored for the market environment.
Introduction
Green Brick Partners and Meritage Homes are two publicly traded U.S. homebuilders confronting the same macroeconomic backdrop: elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and cautious buyer sentiment. Because the companies pursue different land strategies and serve different regional markets, their recent results and share-price paths have diverged. This stock comparison is relevant for investors evaluating relative performance within the homebuilding sector, as well as for traders monitoring market positioning shifts driven by earnings releases and analyst revisions. Reviewing the two side by side helps clarify which operator is better navigating the current housing cycle and where the more durable fundamentals currently reside.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners is a diversified homebuilder and land developer concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, with a model built around owning and self-developing land in infill and infill-adjacent submarkets. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted net new home orders up year over year, along with a modest increase in new home deliveries. Homebuilding gross margin of 28.0% remained among the highest in the industry, supported by disciplined lot-cost management and a growing mortgage business. Book value per share rose 14% year over year, and net homebuilding debt to total capital stayed near single digits, reflecting an investment-grade-style balance sheet. These factors have helped GRBK maintain steadier relative momentum even as affordability challenges persist.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes is one of the largest U.S. public homebuilders, specializing in energy-efficient, entry-level and first move-up homes across a dozen Sun Belt and Southeast states. Recent results showed a 17.9% year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue, which missed analyst estimates, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit allocated to each share) also came in slightly below consensus. The company pulled back on land investment and withdrew its guidance for all metrics, citing unpredictable market conditions, which added uncertainty and prompted several firms to lower their price targets. Shares of MTH have traded with negative momentum over recent weeks, reflecting softer demand, higher incentives, and reduced forward visibility.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of automated trading strategies from a broader library of hundreds of AI-powered bots that trade thousands of different tickers. Because market conditions change, only the bots best suited to the current environment earn a place in this section. The featured bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they monitor, giving users a range of approaches to review. Traders can compare these quantitative signals alongside their own research to gauge how AI interprets momentum and positioning. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which strategies are currently favored.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two builders contrast sharply on several dimensions. GRBK is smaller by revenue and market capitalization but leans on a land-ownership model that supports stronger gross margins and a leaner balance sheet. MTH is larger and more geographically diversified, yet it faces greater exposure to entry-level affordability and has relied on higher incentives to sustain sales pace. Growth drivers also differ: Green Brick benefits from self-developed communities and rising mortgage capture, while Meritage emphasizes cost reductions and capital returns through buybacks and dividends. On recent momentum, Green Brick has shown positive order growth, whereas Meritage's revenue contraction and withdrawn guidance weigh on sentiment. Risk factors are broadly shared—higher rates and inflation—but relative positioning currently favors the operator with steadier trends and clearer visibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, leverage, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward GRBK over MTH. Green Brick's positive order trajectory, industry-leading gross margins, and low debt profile suggest greater resilience in a soft housing market, while Meritage's revenue decline and withdrawn guidance introduce more uncertainty. The verdict reflects probabilistic assessment rather than certainty, as the sector remains sensitive to interest-rate shifts that could alter both names' trajectories. Investors should view this as one quantitative input within a broader decision framework.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Buy and MTH is a Hold.
GRBK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRBK as a result. In 58 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
GRBK moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 65 cases where GRBK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
GRBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.446) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (9.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
MTH saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 45 of the 57 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 54 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
GRBK | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 62 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (47). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (62). This means that GRBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (57). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (23). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 19 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 5 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.36% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+1.66% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +2.61% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +3.37% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 85% Closely correlated | +2.56% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | +2.47% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | +2.19% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 81% Closely correlated | +2.58% | ||
More | ||||
MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| QSU | 3.53 | 0.40 | +12.78% |
| Defiance Daily Target 2X Long QS ETF (QSU) | |||
| DUSL | 74.80 | 7.86 | +11.73% |
| Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3X ETF (DUSL) | |||
| PZT | 21.68 | 0.07 | +0.32% |
| Invesco New York AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF (PZT) | |||
| JHCR | 24.64 | 0.05 | +0.20% |
| John Hancock Core Bond ETF (JHCR) | |||
| SDS | 56.03 | -2.73 | -4.65% |
| ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) | |||