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CVLG vs ODFL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) vs. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) has outperformed Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) year-to-date with returns around 58% versus 42%.
- ODFL, a less-than-truckload (LTL) leader, boasts superior profitability with an 18.6% profit margin and 24% return on equity (ROE), compared to CVLG's slimmer margins.
- Recent earnings for CVLG showed 14% year-over-year sales growth amid tightening capacity, boosting its stock momentum.
- ODFL maintains a massive market cap of $46 billion versus CVLG's $850 million, offering greater scale but higher valuation at 46 times earnings.
- Technical analysis favors CVLG slightly with more bullish indicators in recent market scans.
- Both stocks benefit from freight sector recovery signals, but CVLG shows higher volatility and growth potential.
Introduction
In the competitive transportation sector, Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) represent distinct approaches to freight hauling. CVLG focuses on truckload and logistics services, while ODFL dominates less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance trends, and key metrics to help momentum traders, value investors, and sector specialists evaluate relative strengths amid recovering freight demand and capacity shifts. With both showing robust year-to-date gains, understanding their contrasts aids informed portfolio decisions in a volatile industrial landscape.
CVLG Overview and Recent Performance
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) provides truckload, expedited, dedicated, brokerage, and warehousing services across the U.S., serving manufacturers, retailers, and food shippers. In recent market activity, the stock has surged, posting year-to-date returns near 58% and one-year gains of about 78%. This momentum accelerated following first-quarter 2026 results, which revealed 14% sales growth year-over-year despite soft volumes, coupled with signs of tightening capacity and building rate momentum. Sentiment has shifted positively on expectations of freight recovery, though high P/E ratio above 200 reflects low recent EPS (trailing twelve months: $0.16). Trading around $34 with a $850 million market cap, CVLG exhibits beta of 1.16, indicating moderate volatility relative to the market.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is a leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier offering regional, inter-regional, and national services, plus expedited and brokerage options, with a fleet exceeding 10,000 tractors. Recent performance includes year-to-date gains of approximately 42% and one-year returns around 52%, trading near $222 with a $46 billion market cap. Strong fundamentals shine through 18.6% profit margins, 24% ROE, and EPS of $4.84 (TTM), though analysts note valuation risks ahead of upcoming quarterly earnings. Market sentiment remains bullish on operational efficiency and network density, but shares have moderated after sharp gains, with beta around 1.23 signaling slightly higher sensitivity to sector swings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CVLG and ODFL both thrive in ground transportation but differ in models: CVLG emphasizes full truckload and diversified logistics, exposing it more to spot market freight volatility, while ODFL leverages LTL network efficiency for premium pricing and resilience. Growth drivers include freight rebound and capacity constraints favoring both, yet ODFL's scale yields better margins and lower debt/equity (3% vs. 84%). Recent momentum tilts to CVLG with stronger returns, but ODFL offers stability amid economic uncertainty. Risks for CVLG include thin profitability; for ODFL, elevated multiples. Sector exposure aligns on industrials, with sentiment buoyed by rate hikes but tempered by fuel costs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor CVLG over ODFL for traders eyeing momentum, given its superior year-to-date and one-year returns, recent earnings catalysts, and edge in technical bullish signals (TA Score: 4 vs. 3). However, ODFL appeals for long-term stability with unmatched profitability and scale, suggesting a probabilistic tilt toward CVLG in trending conditions while monitoring freight cycles.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVLG is a Buy and ODFL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVLG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileODFL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVLG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ODFL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVLG’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ODFL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVLG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ODFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CVLG (@Trucking) experienced а -3.30% price change this week, while ODFL (@Trucking) price change was -7.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -5.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVLG is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-5.41% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| CVLG | ODFL | CVLG / ODFL | |
| Capitalization | 1.09B | 45.7B | 2% |
| EBITDA | 111M | 1.71B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 97.395 | 40.373 | 241% |
| P/E Ratio | 481.44 | 45.83 | 1,051% |
| Revenue | 1.2B | 5.46B | 22% |
| Total Cash | 11.2M | 288M | 4% |
| Total Debt | 292M | 40M | 730% |
CVLG | ODFL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 86 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 15 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 35 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ODFL's Valuation (93) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as CVLG (94) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to CVLG’s over the last 12 months.
CVLG's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ODFL (53) in the Trucking industry. This means that CVLG’s stock grew somewhat faster than ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (41) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVLG (91) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVLG’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as CVLG (36) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to CVLG’s over the last 12 months.
CVLG's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the null industry is in the same range as ODFL (19) in the Trucking industry. This means that CVLG’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
| CVLG | ODFL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 14 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 75% |
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