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CVLG vs ODFL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) vs. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVLG and ODFL operate in the same freight ecosystem but at very different scales, business models, and margin profiles.
- CVLG has shown strong recent price momentum but carries pressured margins and an elevated valuation.
- ODFL pairs best-in-class less-than-truckload (LTL) profitability with a debt-light balance sheet, even as near-term volume concerns weigh on sentiment.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, the AI currently favors ODFL over CVLG.
- For more detail on each name, explore CVLG Major News and CVLG Today's Price Move, along with ODFL Major News and ODFL Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading systems are positioning across the market, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors comparing CVLG and ODFL are effectively weighing two distinct corners of the U.S. freight market. Covenant Logistics Group operates a diversified truckload, dedicated contract, and managed freight business, while Old Dominion Freight Line is a large-cap less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier recognized for industry-leading service and margins. Both companies are sensitive to the same cyclical forces, yet their scale, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ materially. This stock comparison is relevant for traders tracking relative momentum and for longer-term investors assessing market positioning across the transportation sector during a period of recovering freight pricing and still-uneven shipment volumes.
CVLG Overview and Recent Performance
CVLG, or Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based transportation and logistics provider spanning expedited truckload, dedicated contract carriage, managed freight (brokerage), and warehousing. In recent market activity, the company has leaned into a strategic shift toward multiyear committed-capacity contracts, with roughly 80% of fleet assets running under long-term agreements by the end of the latest reported quarter.
Recent results reflect this transition. Revenue expanded sharply, aided by a brokerage acquisition within Managed Freight, while the company posted its first sequential and year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) since 2022. Still, profitability has been uneven: operating margins remain thin, and insurance claims, driver costs, and fleet-repositioning expenses have pressured segment-level results. Shares have posted strong gains over the past year but still trade well below earlier highs, and the trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple remains elevated relative to the company's modest recent earnings base.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
ODFL, or Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., is a Thomasville, North Carolina-based less-than-truckload carrier operating a single, union-free network across North America. It is widely regarded as a quality leader in the LTL segment, with 99% on-time service and a cargo claims ratio near 0.1%.
In recent weeks, ODFL has demonstrated pricing discipline even as freight volumes remain uneven. Its latest quarterly report showed revenue up roughly 13% year over year and EPS up roughly 29%, with the operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue) improving about 280 basis points to 71.5%. Notably, LTL revenue per hundredweight rose double digits, offsetting essentially flat tonnage. Despite the strong earnings, the stock declined after the report, reflecting investor caution about softer volumes, rising benefit costs, and a valuation that embeds meaningful future growth. The company maintains a conservative balance sheet with no long-term debt and continues returning cash through dividends and buybacks.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of AI trading bots drawn from a much larger universe of automated systems trading thousands of different tickers. Because not every bot suits every market environment, Tickeron surfaces only those whose strategies, timeframes, and recent performance statistics align with current conditions. These bots vary widely in approach, trading style, and the specific securities they follow, so the featured list gives traders a focused view of what is working right now. Investors comparing names like CVLG and ODFL can browse the Trending AI Robots to see how automated strategies are currently positioned across the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is scale and business model. ODFL is a large-cap LTL specialist whose profitability stems from dense network operations, disciplined yield management, and a fortress-like balance sheet. CVLG is a small-cap, diversified truckload and logistics operator whose results hinge more on contract mix, insurance costs, and the success of its brokerage integration.
On growth drivers, ODFL leans on pricing power and market-share capture as freight demand recovers, while CVLG leans on shifting capacity into dedicated contracts and scaling its managed freight segment. On risk, CVLG faces thinner margins, higher cyclical earnings volatility, and a fuller valuation on a trailing basis, whereas ODFL faces the risk that weak industrial volumes and rising employee benefit costs temper its premium multiple. Market sentiment has favored CVLG's momentum recently, while ODFL's stock has lagged over the past quarter despite stronger fundamental execution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet strength, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward ODFL over CVLG. Old Dominion's combination of best-in-class operating ratios, consistent profitability, disciplined pricing, and a debt-free balance sheet represents a more durable foundation than Covenant's still-developing margin recovery. While CVLG has delivered stronger recent price momentum and an encouraging return to earnings growth, its thinner margins and elevated trailing valuation introduce greater sensitivity to any setback. The AI's preference is expressed in probabilistic terms: ODFL currently appears better positioned on stability and catalysts, though the gap between the two can shift with freight-cycle developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVLG is a Buy and ODFL is a StrongBuy.
CVLG in +3.77% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 10, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where CVLG advanced for three days, in 239 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CVLG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVLG as a result. In 64 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVLG just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVLG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
CVLG moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 67 cases where CVLG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The 50-day moving average for CVLG moved below the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVLG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
CVLG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CVLG entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVLG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.939) is normal, around the industry mean (2.749). CVLG has a moderately high P/E Ratio (175.278) as compared to the industry average of (43.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.310) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.737) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).
ODFL's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 2 days
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ODFL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +1.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ODFL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
ODFL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 147 of 201 cases where ODFL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ODFL as a result. In 60 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ODFL turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
ODFL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ODFL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ODFL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ODFL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ODFL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ODFL's P/B Ratio (7.520) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.749). P/E Ratio (31.594) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.154) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. ODFL's P/S Ratio (6.527) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.068).
CVLG | ODFL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 39 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ODFL's Valuation (93) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as CVLG (98) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to CVLG’s over the last 12 months.
CVLG's Profit vs Risk Rating (49) in the null industry is in the same range as ODFL (79) in the Trucking industry. This means that CVLG’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (39) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVLG (89) in the null industry. This means that ODFL’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVLG’s over the last 12 months.
CVLG's Price Growth Rating (44) in the null industry is in the same range as ODFL (60) in the Trucking industry. This means that CVLG’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
CVLG's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the null industry is in the same range as ODFL (28) in the Trucking industry. This means that CVLG’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
| CVLG | ODFL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 8 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVLG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ODFL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVLG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ODFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVLG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ODFL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVLG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ODFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVLG (@Trucking) experienced а -2.27% price change this week, while ODFL (@Trucking) price change was -5.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -2.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.76%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVLG is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-2.51% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
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CVLG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVLG has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVLG jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVLG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVLG | 100% | +0.28% | ||
| SAIA - CVLG | 71% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| MRTN - CVLG | 71% Closely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| ARCB - CVLG | 70% Closely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| SNDR - CVLG | 70% Closely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| ODFL - CVLG | 70% Closely correlated | -1.68% | ||
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ODFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ODFL has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ODFL jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ODFL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 100% | -1.68% | ||
| SAIA - ODFL | 82% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| ARCB - ODFL | 77% Closely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| KNX - ODFL | 74% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| SNDR - ODFL | 73% Closely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| CVLG - ODFL | 70% Closely correlated | +0.28% | ||
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