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PH vs TKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Parker-Hannifin (PH) vs. Timken (TKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Parker-Hannifin (PH) is a $120-billion industrial giant with a rapidly growing aerospace segment, record order backlogs, and expanding margins, while Timken (TKR) is a $6.7-billion engineered bearings and industrial motion specialist navigating a turnaround under new leadership.
- PH recently posted back-to-back quarters of record sales and high-single-digit organic growth, driven largely by 13%+ aerospace expansion, whereas TKR has faced margin compression and modest organic revenue declines in recent periods.
- Both companies are exposed to tariff-related headwinds and cyclical industrial demand, but PH has demonstrated stronger pricing power and cost discipline in offsetting these pressures.
- PH trades at a premium valuation of roughly 35 times trailing earnings, reflecting its transformed portfolio and growth trajectory, while TKR trades at a considerably lower multiple, offering a different risk-reward profile.
- Capital allocation strategies differ markedly: PH is actively pursuing large-scale acquisitions, including the $9.25 billion Filtration Group deal, while TKR is focused on debt reduction, operational efficiency, and organic improvement.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to the industrial sector often encounter two names that, while operating in adjacent spaces, represent very different investment propositions. Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) is a sprawling motion-and-control technologies powerhouse with a market capitalization exceeding $120 billion. The Timken Company (TKR) is a more focused engineered bearings and industrial motion specialist valued at roughly $6.7 billion. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative strength, growth momentum, and risk exposure within the industrial manufacturing landscape at a time when both companies are navigating tariff uncertainty, evolving end-market demand, and distinct strategic transitions.
PH Overview and Recent Performance
Parker-Hannifin is a Fortune 250 global leader in motion and control technologies, serving diversified industrial and aerospace end markets. The company has undergone a deliberate portfolio transformation in recent years, shifting its revenue mix toward longer-cycle, secular, and aftermarket streams—now projected to account for approximately 85% of total revenue. In recent months, PH has delivered a series of record-breaking quarters. For the fiscal second quarter ended December 2025, the company reported sales of $5.2 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with organic sales growth of 6.6%. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 17% to a record $7.65. The Aerospace Systems segment has been the standout performer, posting 13.5% organic growth in the most recent quarter and building a record backlog of $8 billion. Meanwhile, the Diversified Industrial segment returned to positive organic growth, driven by improvement in in-plant and industrial end markets, off-highway, and aerospace and defense. Total company order rates accelerated to 9%, and the overall backlog reached a record $11.7 billion. Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $30.40 to $31.00, reflecting confidence in sustained momentum. The stock recently traded near $953 per share, with a 52-week range of approximately $692 to $1,035.
TKR Overview and Recent Performance
The Timken Company is a global technology leader in engineered bearings and industrial motion products, serving sectors including renewable energy, manufacturing, aerospace, and rail. The company is navigating a leadership transition, with Lucian Boldea having taken over as president and chief executive officer. Under his direction, TKR has emphasized an "80/20 mindset" aimed at structurally improving margins, accelerating growth in the most profitable verticals, and creating shareholder value. For full-year 2025, Timken reported sales of $4.6 billion, up just 0.2% from the prior year, while organic sales declined 1%. Adjusted EPS for the year came in at $5.33, down from $5.79 in 2024. However, the fourth quarter showed signs of stabilization, with sales rising 3.5% to $1.11 billion and organic growth turning modestly positive at 1.3%. Free cash flow was a bright spot, reaching $406 million for the full year—a 32.8% improvement—and the company reduced net debt by approximately $132 million. Timken marked its twelfth consecutive year of dividend increases in 2025. Looking ahead, management provided an initial 2026 adjusted EPS outlook of $5.50 to $6.00, with revenue expected to grow 2% to 4%. The stock has traded in the mid-to-upper $90s range in recent months.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Despite both operating in the industrial technology space, PH and TKR differ dramatically in scale, diversification, and recent momentum. Parker-Hannifin's $120 billion market capitalization and $20-billion-plus revenue base give it substantial advantages in pricing power, acquisition capacity, and investor visibility. Timken, at $6.7 billion in market cap and $4.6 billion in annual sales, is more narrowly focused and inherently more sensitive to cyclical swings in its core bearing and motion end markets.
A critical differentiator is aerospace exposure. PH now generates roughly one-third of revenue from aerospace systems, a segment benefiting from robust commercial aftermarket demand, growing defense budgets, and multiyear backlog visibility. Timken has no comparable aerospace tailwind; its Engineered Bearings segment leans on renewable energy and general industrial demand, which have been less consistent. This divergence shows clearly in recent organic growth rates: PH posted 6.6% organic growth in its latest quarter, while TKR generated 1.3% organic growth in its most recent reported quarter.
On the margin front, Parker-Hannifin's adjusted segment operating margin reached 27.1% in the most recent quarter, reflecting the success of its "Win Strategy" operating system and favorable mix shift toward aftermarket revenue. Timken's adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin stood at 17.4% for full-year 2025, down 110 basis points from the prior year, as tariff costs and lower production volumes weighed on profitability.
Risk profiles also vary. Both companies face tariff-related cost pressures, but PH has demonstrated greater ability to pass through price increases and maintain margin expansion even amid uneven demand. Timken, under new CEO Boldea, is in the earlier stages of implementing structural margin improvement initiatives, and execution risk remains a key consideration. On the other hand, Timken's lower valuation could appeal to value-oriented investors, while Parker-Hannifin's premium multiple reflects higher expectations that must be sustained.
Capital allocation presents another contrast. Parker-Hannifin has been an aggressive acquirer—its recently announced $9.25 billion agreement to acquire Filtration Group expands its aftermarket portfolio into life sciences, HVAC/R (heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration), and in-plant industrial verticals. The company also repurchased $1.6 billion in shares during fiscal 2025. Timken, by comparison, has prioritized debt reduction, returning $155.7 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks while paying down $140.7 million in total debt.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and structural positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor PH in the current environment. The stock's pattern of accelerating organic growth, record order backlogs, expanding margins, and upward earnings revisions provides a more statistically robust trend profile than what TKR currently exhibits. Parker-Hannifin's transformed portfolio—with 85% of revenue now tied to longer-cycle, secular, and aftermarket streams—offers greater earnings visibility, which AI models tend to weigh favorably when assessing trend durability. That said, Timken's improving free cash flow, disciplined capital management, and mean-reversion potential could register more favorably if its operational turnaround gains traction in coming quarters. The AI verdict is probabilistic, not absolute, and reflects the weight of evidence as it stands today.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PH is a Buy and TKR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TKR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TKR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TKR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
PH (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +1.87% price change this week, while TKR (@Tools & Hardware) price change was +1.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -2.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.12%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was -2.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
PH is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
TKR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-2.15% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (-2.79% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
| PH | TKR | PH / TKR | |
| Capitalization | 122B | 9.84B | 1,239% |
| EBITDA | 5.63B | 783M | 719% |
| Gain YTD | 10.901 | 69.448 | 16% |
| P/E Ratio | 35.82 | 32.19 | 111% |
| Revenue | 21B | 4.67B | 449% |
| Total Cash | 476M | 345M | 138% |
| Total Debt | 9.58B | 2.2B | 435% |
PH | TKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 5 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PH's Valuation (78) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (82) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that PH’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
PH's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (23) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that PH’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
PH's SMR Rating (100) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (100) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that PH’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
PH's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (38) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that PH’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as PH (26) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to PH’s over the last 12 months.
| PH | TKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 46% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 8 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 58% |
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PH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PH has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PH jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
TKR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TKR has been closely correlated with SWK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TKR jumps, then SWK could also see price increases.