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ITW vs TKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. The Timken Company (TKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Business focus: ITW is a diversified, multi-industrial manufacturer with seven segments, while TKR is a focused leader in engineered bearings and industrial motion.
- Profitability gap: ITW consistently posts an operating margin in the mid-to-high 20% range, materially above TKR's low-to-mid-teens margin, reflecting a more defensive business model.
- Momentum and sentiment: ITW has held up more steadily amid soft industrial demand, while TKR has faced earnings misses, guidance cuts, and a CEO transition that have pressured relative performance.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Illinois Tool Works (ITW) — the AI currently favors ITW based on trend consistency, margin stability, and stronger relative positioning.
- Income profile: ITW is a Dividend King with more than 60 consecutive years of dividend increases, whereas TKR offers a smaller, more cyclical payout.
- For more detail on each name, explore ITW Major News and ITW Today's Price Move, as well as TKR Major News and TKR Today's Price Move.
- To see which names AI is favoring right now, explore the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the industrial sector often weigh diversified manufacturers against more specialized players. ITW, Illinois Tool Works, spans seven end markets from automotive to food equipment, while TKR, The Timken Company, concentrates on engineered bearings and industrial motion. This stock comparison is relevant for investors seeking to understand how breadth, margin quality, and cyclical exposure shape relative performance and market positioning in a mixed manufacturing environment.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works is a Fortune 300, multi-industrial manufacturer that applies a decentralized, margin-focused business model across segments including Automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer), Food Equipment, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products. In recent quarters, ITW has generated only modest organic growth as soft North American and European demand weighed on several segments, but it has sustained exceptional profitability, with operating margins in the 26%–27% range.
Recent market activity has favored stability over expansion. Management has highlighted enterprise initiatives contributing more than 100 basis points to operating margin, record operating income, and free cash flow conversion above 100% of adjusted net income. ITW has continued returning cash to shareholders, raising its dividend and repurchasing shares, which has helped anchor sentiment even as some sell-side analysts adopted a more cautious stance on near-term growth.
TKR Overview and Recent Performance
The Timken Company is a 125-year-old global technology leader in engineered bearings and industrial motion, operating through Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments that serve markets such as rail, aerospace, off-highway, and industrial distribution. In recent quarters, TKR has faced weaker end-market demand, particularly in Europe and China, leading to year-over-year sales and earnings declines.
The company missed adjusted earnings expectations, trimmed its full-year outlook, and underwent a CEO transition as Tarak Mehta succeeded Richard Kyle. At the same time, TKR has pursued growth through acquisitions, including CGI, Inc., which expands its precision drive systems for medical robotics. This has positioned the company for a cyclical recovery, but near-term profitability and free cash flow have been more constrained than ITW's, contributing to underperformance relative to the broader market.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor thousands of tickers across different strategies, timeframes, and risk profiles. Only a select group earns a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section, where the platform highlights the bots best suited to current market conditions. These automated systems differ in trading style, holding period, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they trade, giving users a range of approaches to evaluate. Readers interested in seeing which names AI is currently favoring can explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the latest performance data and strategy summaries.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between ITW and TKR is diversification versus specialization. ITW's seven-segment portfolio spreads risk across many end markets, which supports more stable margins and cash flow but limits upside when any single market accelerates. TKR's concentrated exposure to bearings and industrial motion offers greater operating leverage to an industrial recovery, but also leaves it more vulnerable to cyclical downturns.
On growth drivers, TKR leans on secular demand in aerospace, rail, and renewable energy, plus acquisitions, while ITW emphasizes customer-back innovation and enterprise initiatives. On risk factors, TKR carries higher balance-sheet leverage and more pronounced end-market cyclicality, whereas ITW faces foreign-exchange exposure and pockets of segment-level weakness. In terms of market sentiment, ITW's consistency contrasts with TKR's estimate-revision pressure, making the relative performance gap a question of defensiveness versus recovery potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor Illinois Tool Works (ITW). The assessment rests on ITW's more consistent trend, structurally higher and more stable operating margins, strong free cash flow conversion, and disciplined capital returns, which together suggest greater resilience in the current environment. TKR's cyclical leverage and ongoing turnaround efforts could improve its standing if an industrial recovery materializes, but the AI's probabilistic read presently leans toward ITW for its stability and relative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITW is a Buy and TKR is a Hold.
ITW in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ITW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 49 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
ITW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 162 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 88 of 217 cases where ITW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 41%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ITW moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 10 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 26%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 26 of 61 cases where ITW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
ITW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (27.648) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.805). P/E Ratio (25.402) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.482). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
TKR's Stochastic Oscillator descending into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for TKR moved into oversold territory on November 06, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TKR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +4.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TKR advanced for three days, in 193 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
TKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TKR as a result. In 57 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TKR turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
The 50-day moving average for TKR moved below the 200-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for TKR entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TKR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.213) is normal, around the industry mean (3.143). P/E Ratio (27.427) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.467). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.272) is also within normal values, averaging (1.020). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.720) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
ITW | TKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TKR's Valuation (81) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (96) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (47) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TKR (76) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than TKR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (60) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (36) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
| ITW | TKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 26% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 50% | 6 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TKR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TKR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITW’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TKR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TKR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ITW (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +0.86% price change this week, while TKR (@Tools & Hardware) price change was -8.00% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -2.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -22.45%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was -2.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITW is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
TKR is expected to report earnings on Feb 08, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-2.81% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (-2.53% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
TKR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TKR has been closely correlated with RBC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TKR jumps, then RBC could also see price increases.
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