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ITW vs TKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. The Timken Company (TKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is a large-cap diversified industrial manufacturer with seven operating segments and a market capitalization exceeding $81 billion, while The Timken Company (TKR) focuses on engineered bearings and industrial motion products with a market capitalization near $9.8 billion.
- Over the year to date through July 24, 2026, TKR delivered significantly stronger returns of approximately 69% compared to ITW's 16%, reflecting differing momentum profiles amid broader industrial sector activity.
- ITW exhibits higher profitability margins and return metrics, with a trailing profit margin near 19% and return on equity above 96%, versus TKR's lower corresponding figures around 7% and 10%.
- Both companies operate in the industrials sector and face upcoming quarterly earnings releases in late July and early August 2026, providing near-term catalysts for performance evaluation.
- ITW maintains a higher valuation multiple with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 26, while TKR trades at a comparable trailing multiple near 32 amid its recent outperformance.
- Market positioning highlights a contrast between ITW's scale and diversification and TKR's specialized exposure to motion technology end markets such as wind energy and automation.
Introduction
This comparison examines Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and The Timken Company (TKR), two industrials-sector equities with distinct business models and performance trajectories. The analysis focuses on observable factors including recent price behavior, financial characteristics, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating relative opportunities. Portfolio managers, sector specialists, and those monitoring industrial cyclical exposure may find the side-by-side assessment useful for understanding trade-offs between scale-driven stability and specialized growth dynamics in the current environment.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) operates as a diversified manufacturer of industrial products and equipment across seven segments, including Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Welding, and Construction Products. The company serves global markets with a focus on engineered solutions for automotive, commercial food, and general industrial applications. In recent market activity, ITW shares have shown measured gains, including a reported 7.33% advance over the past month through late July 2026, supported by steady institutional interest and analyst commentary ahead of its July 28 earnings release. Broader sentiment reflects attention to organic sales trends and margin discipline within its diversified portfolio, with the stock maintaining a market capitalization above $81 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 26.
TKR Overview and Recent Performance
The Timken Company (TKR) designs and manufactures engineered bearings and industrial motion products, operating through Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments that serve end markets including wind energy, agriculture, aerospace, and automation. In recent market activity, TKR shares have posted substantial gains, contributing to year-to-date returns near 69% and one-year returns near 78% as of July 24, 2026. Sentiment has been influenced by operational execution and positioning in growth-oriented sectors, with the stock carrying a market capitalization near $9.8 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 32 ahead of its August 4 earnings announcement.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and The Timken Company (TKR) both operate within the industrials sector yet differ markedly in scale and focus. ITW’s diversified seven-segment model provides broad exposure across automotive, construction, and food equipment markets, supporting higher profit margins near 19% and elevated return on equity. TKR concentrates on bearings and motion products, delivering specialized exposure to sectors such as wind energy and automation that have contributed to its stronger recent momentum. Valuation metrics show ITW trading at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 26 with a larger market capitalization exceeding $81 billion, while TKR trades at a higher multiple near 32 with a market capitalization near $9.8 billion. Risk considerations include ITW’s greater sensitivity to global manufacturing cycles versus TKR’s leverage to specific industrial motion trends. Recent performance contrasts highlight TKR’s outsized gains against ITW’s more moderate trajectory, underscoring trade-offs between diversification and concentrated growth drivers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic preference toward The Timken Company (TKR) given its stronger recent momentum and sector-specific catalysts, while recognizing Illinois Tool Works (ITW) for its scale and margin stability. The assessment remains conditional on forthcoming earnings data and broader market conditions rather than a definitive ranking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITW is a StrongBuy and TKR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TKR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITW’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TKR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TKR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ITW (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -1.62% price change this week, while TKR (@Tools & Hardware) price change was -0.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.02%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was -1.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TKR is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.26% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (-1.39% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
| ITW | TKR | ITW / TKR | |
| Capitalization | 82.9B | 9.1B | 911% |
| EBITDA | 4.74B | 783M | 605% |
| Gain YTD | 20.236 | 55.822 | 36% |
| P/E Ratio | 26.36 | 35.58 | 74% |
| Revenue | 16.2B | 4.67B | 347% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 345M | - |
| Total Debt | 9.15B | 2.2B | 415% |
ITW | TKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TKR's Valuation (80) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (88) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (36) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TKR (72) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than TKR’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (46) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (33) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
| ITW | TKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 9 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 51% |
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with AOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then AOS could also see price increases.
TKR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TKR has been closely correlated with SWK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TKR jumps, then SWK could also see price increases.