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ITW vs TKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. The Timken Company (TKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ITW is a diversified, high-margin multi-industrial manufacturer, while TKR is a specialized maker of engineered bearings and industrial motion products.
- Both companies posted solid recent quarters, but TKR delivered faster organic growth and raised its 2026 guidance.
- ITW operates at roughly $16 billion in revenue with best-in-class operating margins near 26%, versus TKR's roughly $4.6 billion and improving, lower margins.
- TKR has shown stronger relative price momentum over the past year, while ITW offers steadier, margin-driven returns.
- The two names carry different risk profiles: ITW is diversified across seven segments, while TKR is more exposed to industrial cycles and portfolio reshaping.
Introduction
Investors comparing ITW and TKR are weighing two very different industrial plays. Illinois Tool Works is a sprawling, diversified manufacturer prized for its disciplined "business model" and exceptional profitability, while The Timken Company is a focused engineered-bearings and industrial-motion specialist in the midst of an aggressive margin-improvement and portfolio-simplification program. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors deciding between stable, quality compounding and a more cyclically sensitive turnaround story with higher momentum. Understanding each company's relative performance, market positioning, and catalysts can help clarify which profile better matches a given risk tolerance and outlook.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
ITW, or Illinois Tool Works, is a Fortune 300 multi-industrial manufacturer with roughly $16 billion in annual revenue across seven segments, including Automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer), Food Equipment, Welding, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Construction Products, Specialty Products, and Polymers & Fluids. The company's decentralized structure and continuous-improvement initiatives have produced consistently high margins; recent quarters saw a record operating margin near 26.5%.
In recent market activity, ITW reported fourth-quarter revenue up about 4% and GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share of $2.72, beating analyst estimates on resilient automotive parts demand and effective tariff mitigation. Management initiated 2026 guidance calling for earnings of roughly $11.00 to $11.40 per share and organic growth of 1% to 3%. The company also extended its dividend increase streak to 62 consecutive years and signaled about $1.5 billion in planned share repurchases. Sentiment has been supported by margin expansion and capital-expenditure-driven demand, though softer consumer-facing and construction end markets remain a headwind.
TKR Overview and Recent Performance
TKR, The Timken Company, is a global technology leader in engineered bearings and industrial motion, generating about $4.6 billion in annual sales and operating across roughly 45 countries. Its two reporting segments—Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion—serve mission-critical applications in aerospace, automation, robotics, off-highway, wind, and industrial markets.
Recent performance has been notably strong. Timken's first-quarter 2026 sales rose about 8% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.67, prompting management to raise its full-year outlook to adjusted EPS of $5.75 to $6.25 and midpoint revenue growth of about 5%. The company's Investor Day introduced an "Elevate to Outperform" strategy targeting roughly $5.0 to $5.2 billion in 2028 sales and adjusted EPS near $8.50. Portfolio moves—including the CGI and Bijur Delimon acquisitions and the divestiture of its belts business—underscore a focus on higher-margin motion technology. These catalysts have driven TKR shares to recent highs and meaningful outperformance over the past year.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and business model. ITW is a diversified compounder whose seven segments smooth out cyclicality and sustain operating margins near 26%—roughly double the level typical of a conventional industrial. TKR is smaller and more concentrated, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins in the upper teens to low twenties, but it is improving those margins through an "80/20" portfolio-discipline program and mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
On growth, TKR has delivered stronger recent organic momentum—first-quarter organic sales rose over 4%—while ITW's organic growth has been more modest in the low single digits. On profitability and cash generation, ITW is decisively ahead, converting more than 100% of net income into free cash flow. Risk profiles differ as well: ITW's diversification and pricing power provide resilience, whereas TKR carries greater cyclical exposure to industrial end markets and tariff volatility, alongside the execution risk of its turnaround strategy. Market sentiment has favored TKR's momentum recently, while ITW is viewed as the steadier, quality-oriented holding.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TKR in the current environment, given its stronger relative price momentum, accelerating organic growth, and a clearly defined margin-expansion and portfolio-simplification catalyst path. That said, ITW retains advantages in stability, margin quality, and free-cash-flow consistency, which may appeal to models prioritizing lower volatility and proven earnings consistency. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive: TKR offers a more momentum-driven profile with higher upside potential, while ITW presents a steadier, lower-risk quality alternative. The appropriate weighting depends on the model's timeframe, risk parameters, and the specific bots matched to each ticker.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITW is a Hold and TKR is a Hold.
ITW in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 30, 2026
ITW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 21 of 32 cases where ITW's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ITW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 56 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +1.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 168 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for ITW entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (26.954) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.342). P/E Ratio (24.803) is within average values for comparable stocks, (66.065). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TKR sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
TKR saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 14, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TKR as a result. In 56 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
TKR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TKR entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TKR advanced for three days, in 192 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TKR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.532) is normal, around the industry mean (3.191). P/E Ratio (31.640) is within average values for comparable stocks, (26.798). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.272) is also within normal values, averaging (1.020). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.720) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ITW | TKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TKR's Valuation (72) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (83) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TKR (76) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than TKR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TKR (49) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to TKR’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (31) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
| ITW | TKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 16 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TKR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITW’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TKR’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TKR’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ITW (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +3.09% price change this week, while TKR (@Tools & Hardware) price change was -3.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -9.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.46%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +0.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TKR is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-9.26% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (+0.33% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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TKR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TKR has been closely correlated with ITT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TKR jumps, then ITT could also see price increases.