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ITW vs TKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. Timken (TKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TKR has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD) performance at approximately 30%, outpacing ITW's 10% gain amid recent market activity.
- ITW provides a higher dividend yield of 2.4%, appealing to income-focused investors, compared to TKR's 1.3%.
- Both stocks operate in the industrials sector, with ITW boasting a larger market capitalization of $78 billion versus TKR's $7.6 billion.
- Recent catalysts include ITW's 7% dividend increase and upcoming Q1 earnings, while TKR announced an acquisition and analyst price target raises.
- TKR exhibits higher recent momentum, though ITW offers greater stability through diversification.
- Trailing P/E ratios (price-to-earnings) are similar around 26 for both, reflecting comparable valuations.
Introduction
In the industrials sector, ITW and TKR represent key players in manufacturing and engineered components, making them relevant for traders navigating sector rotation and investors seeking exposure to industrial cycles. This comparison highlights their recent stock behavior, business drivers, and relative positioning in a market influenced by economic resilience and upcoming earnings seasons. With both showing distinct momentum patterns in recent weeks, value-oriented and growth-focused market participants can assess trade-offs in stability versus upside potential, aiding decisions in diversified portfolios or targeted trades.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is a diversified global manufacturer specializing in engineered fasteners, welding equipment, automotive components, and food processing machinery across seven segments. Its decentralized model fosters operational agility. In recent market activity, ITW shares have traded around $270, reflecting resilience despite broader industrial pressures. Key influences include a 7% dividend hike, signaling strong cash flow generation, and anticipation for Q1 earnings on April 30, with projected revenue near $4 billion and EPS (earnings per share) of $2.55. Analysts like JP Morgan maintained an Overweight rating, though price targets adjusted lower amid softer volumes in construction and test segments. YTD gains of 10% underscore steady performance, supported by margin discipline.
TKR Overview and Recent Performance
The Timken Company (TKR) is a leader in engineered bearings, power transmission products, and lubrication systems, serving industries like aerospace, automotive, and renewables. Recent weeks have seen TKR shares hover near $109, buoyed by robust momentum. Notable developments include the acquisition of Bijur Delimon to bolster lubrication capabilities and recognition as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for the 15th time. Q1 earnings are slated for May 6, with analysts such as Oppenheimer raising price targets to $117 on an Outperform rating. YTD performance exceeds 29%, driven by organic growth resumption and sector tailwinds, though a recent pullback offers entry points per market commentary.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ITW's diversified business model spans multiple end-markets, reducing cyclical risks compared to TKR's focused exposure to bearings and motion control, which ties closely to industrial production and autos. Growth drivers differ: TKR benefits from acquisitions and renewables demand, fueling superior recent momentum, while ITW emphasizes organic margin expansion. Risk profiles show similar betas around 1.15, but ITW's scale offers lower volatility. Sector-wise, both align with industrials recovery, yet TKR garners hotter sentiment via YTD outperformance and upgrades, versus ITW's defensive appeal through dividends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI leans toward TKR in the current environment, given its trend consistency, superior YTD returns, fresh catalysts like the acquisition, and positive analyst revisions signaling relative strength. While ITW provides stability and income reliability, TKR's momentum and growth positioning suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance amid industrial upticks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITW is a Buy and TKR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TKR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITW’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TKR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TKR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ITW (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +1.86% price change this week, while TKR (@Tools & Hardware) price change was +3.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.30%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +3.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITW is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
TKR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.88% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (+3.28% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
| ITW | TKR | ITW / TKR | |
| Capitalization | 74.1B | 9.53B | 778% |
| EBITDA | 4.74B | 783M | 605% |
| Gain YTD | 5.180 | 63.969 | 8% |
| P/E Ratio | 23.90 | 31.15 | 77% |
| Revenue | 16.2B | 4.67B | 347% |
| Total Cash | 827M | 345M | 240% |
| Total Debt | 9.15B | 2.2B | 415% |
ITW | TKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 12 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 23 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ITW's Valuation (19) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TKR (79) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than TKR’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (59) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (12) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TKR (72) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than TKR’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (55) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
TKR's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as ITW (43) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TKR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
| ITW | TKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 5 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 41% | 17 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 57% |
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with AOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then AOS could also see price increases.
TKR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TKR has been closely correlated with SWK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TKR jumps, then SWK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TKR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR | 100% | -0.25% | ||
| SWK - TKR | 74% Closely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| ITT - TKR | 69% Closely correlated | +2.23% | ||
| HLIO - TKR | 68% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| LECO - TKR | 67% Closely correlated | +0.26% | ||
| ITW - TKR | 67% Closely correlated | +1.17% | ||
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