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PSX vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PSX and VLO are integrated downstream energy companies that have surged on sharply higher refining margins, but their business mixes differ materially.
- VLO has posted stronger recent relative performance, gaining roughly 140% in 2026 versus a large but smaller advance for PSX.
- PSX offers broader diversification through midstream, chemicals, marketing, and renewable fuels; VLO is a larger, more concentrated refiner with renewable diesel and ethanol platforms.
- VLO carries a stronger balance sheet and lower forward price-to-earnings multiple, while PSX trades at a higher earnings multiple relative to peers.
- Both names face cyclical and policy risks, including potential diesel export restrictions and the eventual normalization of refining margins.
Introduction
Phillips 66 and Valero Energy are two of the largest names in U.S. energy refining, and both have been notable beneficiaries of a favorable refining environment in recent quarters. Traders and investors frequently compare them because they sit in the same sector yet pursue different strategies for growth, diversification, and capital returns. This stock comparison examines each company's business model, recent momentum, relative performance, and market positioning to help readers evaluate the trade-offs between a more diversified downstream operator and a larger, refinery-centric competitor. The analysis is grounded in recent filings, earnings reports, and observable market data rather than forward-looking predictions.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 operates an integrated downstream portfolio spanning Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. In recent weeks, PSX shares have advanced significantly, extending a rally that has produced a roughly 90% one-year total return. The move followed a sharp improvement in second-quarter results, when adjusted earnings rose to $9.41 per share from $2.38 a year earlier, supported by worldwide realized refining margins that climbed to roughly $24 per barrel from about $11.25.
Beyond refining, midstream operations contributed record fractionation volumes and record liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) export levels, while chemicals and renewable fuels each rebounded. Management has also expanded its share repurchase authorization to approximately $23 billion and advanced midstream growth projects. These factors have strengthened sentiment, though the stock's higher forward valuation and cyclical earnings exposure are frequently cited as areas of caution.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy is among the largest independent petroleum refiners globally, operating 14 refineries with combined throughput capacity of roughly 3 million barrels per day, alongside renewable diesel and ethanol businesses. Recent market activity has been strong for VLO, which has rallied roughly 140% in 2026 and outperformed the broader refining industry over the past year.
The advance has been driven by a broad-based earnings beat: adjusted second-quarter earnings reached $12.54 per share, with refining operating income rising to about $4.47 billion from $1.27 billion a year earlier. Renewable diesel swung to an operating profit from a prior-year loss, and ethanol margins improved sharply. Valero's heavy-crude feedstock flexibility and Gulf Coast scale have reinforced its positioning, and the company returned roughly 59% of adjusted operating cash flow to shareholders. A net debt-to-capitalization ratio near 11% reflects a notably strong balance sheet, though the stock's extended run has prompted some analysts to flag valuation risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is breadth versus scale and concentration. Phillips 66's diversified mix of midstream, chemicals, and marketing provides earnings that are less dependent on refining spreads alone, while Valero's larger refining system and heavy-crude advantage amplify its exposure to strong crack spreads (the difference between refined product prices and crude costs).
On momentum, VLO has led in 2026, but its more concentrated model means its results swing more with refining margins. PSX offers broader cash-flow sources and is executing on fee-based midstream growth, though it carries a larger absolute debt load and a higher forward earnings multiple. Both companies face shared risks: geopolitical supply disruptions have supported margins but also add volatility, and policy uncertainty—including a reported potential U.S. diesel export restriction—has pressured refiners in recent trading. In terms of market positioning, Valero's scale and balance sheet favor cyclical upside, while Phillips 66's diversification may appeal to investors seeking steadier exposure across the downstream value chain.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, balance-sheet strength, and the breadth of recent earnings beats, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward VLO in the current environment. Valero has demonstrated stronger relative performance, a cleaner balance sheet, and a lower forward earnings multiple, while its renewable diesel and ethanol segments add additional earnings engines. That said, the AI framework would also weigh Valero's extended valuation after a steep rally and the shared cyclical risks facing the sector. The preference is probabilistic rather than definitive: VLO currently presents a stronger momentum and stability profile, but PSX remains a credible alternative for investors prioritizing diversification and long-term midstream growth.
Disclaimer
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PSX is a Buy and VLO is a StrongBuy.
PSX | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 93 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 40 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 11 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (48) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (73). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (7). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (40). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (11) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (13). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's P/E Growth Rating (94) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (99). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PSX | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 57% | 10 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PSX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PSX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +5.14% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +6.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +42.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
PSX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.79% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.