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PSX vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PSX and VLO have benefited from tight global refining capacity, low fuel inventories, and unusually strong refining margins in recent quarters.
- VLO is a more concentrated refining pure-play, while PSX carries a more diversified mix of refining, midstream, chemicals, and renewables.
- Recent results show VLO capturing wider realized refining margins, while PSX draws stability from fee-based midstream and chemicals cash flows.
- Both names have returned substantial cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, but valuation and momentum differ across the two stocks.
- Get more detail on these names by visiting PSX Major News and PSX Today's Price Move, as well as VLO Major News and VLO Today's Price Move.
- For automated, data-driven signals across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) are two of the largest publicly traded downstream energy companies in the United States, making this stock comparison especially relevant for investors tracking the refining cycle, commodity margins, and energy-sector cash returns. Both have delivered sharp share-price gains over the past year as constrained refining capacity and low product inventories supported unusually wide refining margins. Yet the two companies are structured differently: one is an integrated downstream operator with diversified earnings streams, while the other is a concentrated refiner with scale advantages. Traders and long-term investors weighing relative performance and market positioning against risk will find the contrast between these two leaders instructive.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 is an integrated downstream energy provider headquartered in Houston, Texas, operating across Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels segments. This diversification distinguishes PSX from many peers, because fee-based midstream and chemicals earnings can partially offset the volatility of refining margins. In recent quarters, the company reported strong refining results, with realized refining margins rising materially versus the prior year and crude utilization in the mid-to-high 90% range. Management has emphasized structural cost reductions, organic midstream growth, and a goal of returning more than 50% of net operating cash flow to shareholders. Recent market activity has also focused on labor developments at one refinery and planned leadership changes, factors that have added operational and governance considerations to an otherwise strong earnings narrative.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon transportation fuels, operating 14 refineries with combined throughput capacity of roughly 3.0 million barrels per day across the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. VLO is generally viewed as a refining-focused business, complemented by renewable diesel and ethanol operations. In its most recent reported quarter, the company delivered a sharp year-over-year increase in net income and earnings per share, driven by substantially wider refining margins and near-record utilization. Valero's Gulf Coast footprint and access to discounted heavy crude feedstocks are frequently cited as competitive advantages. The company has maintained strong cash generation, repaid maturing debt, and returned a significant share of adjusted operating cash flow to shareholders through dividends and repurchases.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core trade-off between these two stocks lies in concentration versus diversification. VLO offers greater direct exposure to refining margins and heavy-crude feedstock economics, which can amplify earnings when margins widen but also increase sensitivity to a downturn in the refining cycle. PSX tempers that exposure through midstream, chemicals, and renewables, which may smooth earnings but can dilute the upside in a strong refining market. On valuation, both names trade at a premium to the refining industry average on enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA), reflecting strong investor sentiment. In terms of momentum, VLO has outperformed over the trailing year, while PSX carries its own catalyst in midstream expansion and cost initiatives. Risk factors include crude-price swings, potential demand destruction from higher fuel prices, and refinery turnaround or labor disruptions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward VLO in the current environment. The company's wider realized refining margins, strong cash generation, favorable Gulf Coast feedstock access, and consistent upward momentum present a compelling near-term profile. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: PSX's diversified earnings base and midstream growth may offer greater stability if refining conditions normalize. The relative balance could shift as margin trends evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PSX is a Hold and VLO is a Buy.
PSX sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
PSX saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 22, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PSX moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PSX as a result. In 47 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSX advanced for three days, in 272 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
PSX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 240 of 332 cases where PSX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.465) is normal, around the industry mean (4.758). P/E Ratio (15.564) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.045). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.811) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.704) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
VLO's Stochastic Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 5 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
VLO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 252 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 36 of the 52 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 48 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
VLO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.429) is normal, around the industry mean (4.758). P/E Ratio (16.030) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.045). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PSX | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 40 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 91 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (69) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (88). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (8). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (40). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (36). This means that PSX’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (91). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PSX | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 76% | 9 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 57% | 7 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PSX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PSX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -3.87% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -9.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -5.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was +22.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
PSX is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-5.32% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -1.01% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 88% Closely correlated | -1.87% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 85% Closely correlated | -0.05% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 81% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | +3.08% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -0.65% | ||
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