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PSX vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PSX and VLO operate as major independent refiners in the U.S. energy sector, benefiting from recent strength in refining margins amid favorable crude and product price dynamics.
- VLO reported record net income of $3.7 billion for Q2 2026, driving a sharp stock response and highlighting operational leverage in refining and renewables.
- PSX has maintained consistent shareholder returns through dividends and an expanded share repurchase authorization announced in late July 2026, supporting its diversified midstream and chemical operations.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks trading near multi-year highs, with VLO exhibiting stronger near-term momentum following its earnings release compared to PSX ahead of its upcoming report.
- Valuation metrics reflect sector-wide strength, though VLO trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than PSX on a trailing basis amid elevated earnings.
- Sector exposure to downstream refining exposes both to similar risks from crude volatility and demand shifts, with relative performance hinging on execution and capital allocation strategies.
Introduction
Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) represent two leading independent refiners within the energy sector. This comparison examines their business profiles, recent stock behavior, and key operational metrics to assist investors and traders evaluating relative positioning in the refining space. Market participants focused on downstream energy exposure, dividend income, or sector rotation may find the analysis relevant when assessing opportunities amid evolving crude prices and product demand.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company with significant refining, midstream, and chemicals businesses. In recent weeks, PSX shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range, closing around $211.68 on July 31, 2026, after reaching a high of $216.08. The stock has delivered substantial year-to-date gains, supported by broad strength in U.S. refining margins. Recent market activity reflects investor attention to an additional share repurchase authorization announced in late July 2026 alongside a quarterly dividend of $1.27 per share. Sentiment has remained constructive ahead of the company’s Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for August 5, 2026, with analysts projecting solid results amid favorable industry conditions.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy focuses primarily on refining with additional exposure to renewable diesel and ethanol. The company reported standout Q2 2026 results on July 30, 2026, posting record net income attributable to stockholders of $3.7 billion, or $12.62 per share. Shares responded positively, trading near $312.90–$316.37 in late July and early August sessions and approaching the 52-week high of $320.24. Recent performance has outpaced broader market moves, driven by robust refining margins and operational execution. Valero also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share, underscoring its strong cash generation and commitment to returns amid elevated earnings levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Phillips 66 (PSX) maintains broader diversification through midstream and chemicals segments, offering some insulation from pure refining cycles compared with Valero Energy’s (VLO) more concentrated refining focus. Growth drivers for both center on refining utilization and crack spreads, yet VLO benefited from a more immediate earnings catalyst in Q2 2026. Recent momentum favors VLO following its record results, while PSX emphasizes capital returns via buybacks and dividends. Risk factors include commodity price volatility and regulatory pressures on emissions for both, though VLO’s renewable initiatives provide a modest differentiator. Market sentiment reflects sector tailwinds, with VLO showing tighter valuation multiples relative to trailing earnings and PSX trading at a premium amid its diversified earnings base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent earnings momentum, trend consistency, and relative positioning within the refining sector, Tickeron’s AI analysis would likely assign a modest probabilistic edge to VLO in the near term. The company’s record Q2 results and subsequent price response provide clearer near-term catalysts compared with PSX, which awaits its own earnings release. That said, PSX’s diversification and ongoing capital return programs could support more stable performance under varying market regimes. The AI would weigh these elements probabilistically rather than as a definitive ranking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PSX is a Buy and VLO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PSX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PSX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PSX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -2.41% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -2.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -8.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.28%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
PSX is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-8.53% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PSX | VLO | PSX / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 80.8B | 87.1B | 93% |
| EBITDA | 9.2B | 13.7B | 67% |
| Gain YTD | 61.744 | 88.879 | 69% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.73 | 12.64 | 93% |
| Revenue | 134B | 139B | 96% |
| Total Cash | 5.15B | 7.87B | 65% |
| Total Debt | 27.1B | 11.3B | 240% |
PSX | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (48) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (78). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (24). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (59). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (5). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's P/E Growth Rating (97) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (99). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PSX | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 74% | 8 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 15 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 71% |
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PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | +0.20% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 86% Closely correlated | +0.50% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 82% Closely correlated | +1.47% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -1.40% | ||
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