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PSX vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PSX and VLO have benefited from expanded refining margins in recent market activity, driven by geopolitical tensions and favorable crude differentials.
- VLO has shown stronger year-to-date gains of approximately 45-52%, outperforming PSX's 25-28% rise.
- Recent weeks have seen volatility for both stocks, with PSX experiencing a modest pullback amid broader sector pressures, while VLO maintains upward momentum.
- PSX benefits from diversification into midstream and chemicals, contrasting VLO's pure-play refining focus.
- Analyst upgrades highlight PSX's attractive valuation relative to peers like VLO.
- Upcoming earnings for both could influence sentiment, with refining crack spreads remaining a key driver.
Introduction
Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) are leading players in the oil refining sector, processing crude into fuels and petrochemicals amid volatile energy markets. This comparison is relevant for traders seeking relative performance insights and investors evaluating exposure to downstream energy operations. Both stocks have navigated recent refining margin expansions from geopolitical events and supply dynamics, offering a lens into sector resilience. With refining crack spreads (the difference between crude and product prices) elevated, understanding their business models, momentum, and risk profiles aids in assessing market positioning in the current environment.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 (PSX) operates a diversified energy business, including refining, midstream logistics, chemicals, and renewables. In recent market activity, PSX shares have advanced approximately 25-28% year-to-date, supported by refining margins that more than doubled to around $12.48 per barrel in the prior quarter. Sentiment has been bolstered by analyst upgrades, such as Morgan Stanley's emphasis on chemicals upside and heavy crude advantages, amid near-term U.S. margin strength. However, shares experienced a 5.4% pullback over recent weeks, reflecting broader sector volatility despite outperformance against the S&P 500 in some sessions.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy (VLO) is a pure-play refiner with large-scale operations across the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., focusing on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production. Recent performance has been robust, with shares gaining about 20% over the past 30 days and 45-52% year-to-date, fueled by wide crack spreads and strong cash generation. Key developments include a dividend increase to $1.20 per share and positive analyst revisions tied to refining outlook. While recent sessions showed dips amid market upticks, VLO has outperformed the sector, with shares trading near $238-251, reflecting sustained investor confidence in its operational efficiency.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, PSX offers broader exposure through midstream (pipelines) and chemicals, reducing reliance on refining cycles, while VLO emphasizes high-volume refining for higher margin capture during crack spread expansions. Growth drivers align on elevated refining throughput, but VLO shows superior 12-month returns of 101% versus PSX's 54%. Recent momentum favors VLO with stronger YTD gains, though both face risks from crude price swings and regulatory shifts in renewables. Sector exposure is identical in oils-energy, but PSX's diversification tempers volatility. Market sentiment leans toward VLO for pure-play upside, balanced by PSX's relative valuation appeal.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor VLO over PSX, citing superior trend consistency, year-to-date momentum exceeding 45%, and robust refining catalysts amid sustained crack spreads. While PSX exhibits stability through diversification, VLO's relative positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in the near term, subject to energy market evolution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PSX is a StrongBuy and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PSX’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PSX’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PSX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +0.88% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +1.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
PSX is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+0.39% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PSX | VLO | PSX / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 67.6B | 72B | 94% |
| EBITDA | 9.2B | 9.51B | 97% |
| Gain YTD | 32.719 | 50.545 | 65% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.64 | 17.81 | 93% |
| Revenue | 134B | 125B | 107% |
| Total Cash | 5.15B | 5.73B | 90% |
| Total Debt | 27.1B | 11.5B | 236% |
PSX | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (42) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (82). This means that PSX’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (35). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (58). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (47). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (97). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PSX | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 23 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 61% | 1 day ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 71% |
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PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PSX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | 100% | -1.00% | ||
| MPC - PSX | 84% Closely correlated | -0.81% | ||
| VLO - PSX | 83% Closely correlated | -0.51% | ||
| DINO - PSX | 76% Closely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| PBF - PSX | 72% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| PARR - PSX | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.10% | ||
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -0.51% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 86% Closely correlated | -0.81% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 83% Closely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 76% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 72% Closely correlated | +1.10% | ||
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