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TNL vs VIK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) vs. Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TNL is a vacation ownership and travel club operator with a mature, cash-generative model, while VIK is a fast-growing luxury cruise company still in an early post-IPO expansion phase.
- VIK reported stronger recent revenue growth (full-year 2025 revenue up roughly 22%), whereas TNL delivered more modest but consistent single-digit growth.
- TNL returns significant capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, while VIK currently prioritizes fleet expansion and balance-sheet strength.
- The two names carry contrasting risk profiles: TNL is sensitive to U.S. consumer and credit conditions, while VIK faces geopolitical, fuel, and seasonality exposure.
- Analyst sentiment improved for both in recent months, with upgrades from Barclays (TNL) and Goldman Sachs (VIK).
Introduction
Investors comparing TNL and VIK are effectively weighing two very different ways to gain exposure to leisure travel. Travel + Leisure Co. represents an asset-heavy, recurring-revenue vacation ownership business built on long-term owner relationships, while Viking Holdings Ltd is a premium cruise operator riding a wave of capacity and yield growth following its 2024 initial public offering. This stock comparison is relevant for traders assessing relative performance and market positioning, as well as longer-term investors seeking to balance a steady, income-oriented name against a higher-growth, more volatile story. Understanding the distinct drivers behind each business is essential before choosing between them.
TNL Overview and Recent Performance
Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) is a leading leisure travel company whose portfolio spans vacation ownership (timeshare) brands such as Club Wyndham, WorldMark, and RCI, alongside newer experiential brands including Margaritaville Vacation Club and Sports Illustrated Resorts. In recent weeks the company reported full-year 2025 net revenue of approximately $4.02 billion, with gross vacation ownership interest (VOI) sales up 8% and volume per guest (VPG) rising 6%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached $990 million for the year, and management issued 2026 guidance calling for adjusted EBITDA between $1.03 billion and $1.055 billion. Recent market activity has been shaped by a "Resort Optimization Initiative" that triggered inventory write-downs and impairments but is expected to improve margins beginning in 2026, along with a dividend increase recommendation and a new $750 million share repurchase authorization. Barclays upgraded the stock in late 2025, reflecting gradually improving sentiment.
VIK Overview and Recent Performance
Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) is a global leader in experiential travel, operating a fleet of more than 100 river, ocean, and expedition ships across 21 rivers, five oceans, and all seven continents. In its most recent results, the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of roughly $1.72 billion, up 27.8% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 51.3% to about $463 million and occupancy improving to 95%. For full-year 2025, revenue climbed approximately 22% to $6.5 billion, while adjusted net income grew more than 40% to about $1.2 billion. Sentiment has been supported by capacity expansion, strong advanced bookings, and upgrades from Goldman Sachs and a maintained Buy rating from Citigroup, although the stock has also shown notable volatility, including pullbacks tied to broader cruise-sector concerns ahead of earnings. The company ended the year with about $3.8 billion in cash and $2.1 billion in net debt, providing capacity for its shipbuilding commitments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two companies lies in their business models. TNL generates roughly three-quarters of its revenue from recurring sources such as management fees and financing income tied to its vacation ownership base, creating predictable cash flow but slower growth. VIK, by contrast, depends on expanding fleet capacity and yield, measured in part through passenger cruise days (PCDs) and revenue per PCD, which delivers faster top-line growth but greater capital intensity. Growth drivers differ accordingly: TNL leans on new brand launches and owner upgrades, while VIK leans on new ship deliveries and geographic expansion. Risk profiles also diverge, with TNL exposed to U.S. consumer credit conditions and VIK exposed to fuel costs, seasonality, and geopolitical disruptions. In terms of shareholder returns, TNL returns substantial capital via dividends and buybacks, while VIK has indicated it is not yet prioritizing buybacks or dividends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, growth momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VIK on a momentum-adjusted basis, given its stronger revenue growth, expanding capacity, and rising occupancy and yield metrics. At the same time, TNL would appeal more on stability and capital-return grounds, reflecting its recurring revenue base and disciplined buyback and dividend program. The verdict ultimately depends on the trading timeframe and risk tolerance embedded in each strategy: a momentum-oriented model may tilt toward VIK, while a trend-consistency or income-oriented model could favor TNL. Neither outcome should be read as a definitive prediction, but rather as a probabilistic read of current market positioning and catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TNL is a Buy and VIK is a Hold.
TNL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TNL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TNL as a result. In 63 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
TNL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TNL advanced for three days, in 201 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 155 of 250 cases where TNL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TNL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TNL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
TNL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TNL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-4.542) is normal, around the industry mean (0.364). P/E Ratio (19.874) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.027) is also within normal values, averaging (2.686).
VIK in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for VIK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 6 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VIK as a result. In 30 of 39 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VIK just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where VIK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 16 of 24 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
VIK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VIK advanced for three days, in 128 of 166 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 151 of 210 cases where VIK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VIK moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for VIK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VIK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
VIK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VIK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: VIK's P/B Ratio (23.930) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.364). P/E Ratio (28.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. VIK's P/S Ratio (5.485) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.686).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VIK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
TNL | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| TNL | VIK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 30 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TNL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VIK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- TNL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VIK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TNL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VIK’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- TNL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VIK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
TNL (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а +15.09% price change this week, while VIK (@Consumer Sundries) price change was +2.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was +2.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
TNL is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
VIK is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (+2.18% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
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TNL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TNL has been loosely correlated with NCLH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TNL jumps, then NCLH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TNL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL | 100% | +5.37% | ||
| NCLH - TNL | 57% Loosely correlated | +2.11% | ||
| CCL - TNL | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.23% | ||
| SABR - TNL | 52% Loosely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| RCL - TNL | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.52% | ||
| VIK - TNL | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.47% | ||
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