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SHOO vs VFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) vs. VF Corporation (VFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SHOO posted a robust 18% revenue jump to $653 million in Q1 2026, while VFC’s Q3 2026 revenue was essentially flat, highlighting divergent growth momentum.
- SHOO’s direct‑to‑consumer (DTC) sales surged 84% YoY, whereas VFC is relying on a turnaround program (“Reinvent”) to revive its flagship brands and improve margins.
- Both companies announced dividend increases (SHOO $0.21, VFC $0.09) and are focused on balance‑sheet strength, but VFC reduced net debt by $1.5 billion in its latest quarter.
- VFC’s portfolio (The North Face®, Timberland®, Vans®, etc.) offers broader diversification, while SHOO remains a pure‑play footwear and accessories brand.
- AI‑driven analysis on Tickeron suggests VFC’s upside may hinge on successful execution of its restructuring, whereas SHOO’s upside is tied to continued DTC expansion.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to consumer apparel often compare Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) and VF Corporation (VFC) because both operate well‑known footwear and accessories brands but differ markedly in scale, brand mix, and strategic direction. This comparison is relevant for growth‑oriented traders looking for momentum opportunities and for income‑focused investors evaluating dividend sustainability in a changing retail landscape.
SHOO Overview and Recent Performance
Steven Madden reported first‑quarter 2026 results on May 6 2026. Revenue climbed 18% to $653.1 million, driven by a record $206 million increase in DTC sales (up 84% YoY) and higher gross margins (54.7% versus 40.9% a year earlier). Operating income reached $98.7 million (15.1% of revenue) and net income rose to $71.8 million, or $1.00 per diluted share. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21, payable in June 2026.
Management raised full‑year revenue guidance to a 10‑12% increase and introduced adjusted EPS guidance of $2.00‑$2.10. Growth drivers include the continued popularity of the Steve Madden and Kurt Geiger brands, strong product assortments, and expanding e‑commerce capabilities across eight owned websites. Risks revolve around fashion‑trend volatility, wholesale exposure to a concentrated retail base, and potential tariff impacts on imported goods.
VFC Overview and Recent Performance
VF Corporation’s most recent disclosed quarter is Q3 2026 (ended December 27 2025) with supplemental Q2 2026 data (ended September 27 2025). Q3 2026 revenue was essentially flat to +2% on a constant‑currency basis, while adjusted operating income stood at $330 million, delivering an 11.8% adjusted operating margin—up from 10.1% a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was $0.52, and the company paid a $0.09 dividend.
Q2 2026 showed $2.8 billion in revenue (+2% YoY) and operating margin of 11.2% (adjusted 11.8%). Net debt, excluding lease liabilities, fell $1.5 billion (‑21% YoY), reflecting ongoing deleveraging. The firm is executing the “Reinvent” transformation, targeting cost reductions, brand‑building, and a strategic focus on outdoor (The North Face®) and active (Timberland®, Vans®) segments. A key catalyst is the pending $600 million sale of the Dickies® brand, expected to free capital for investment and further debt reduction.
Challenges include a soft Vans® business (mid‑single‑digit revenue decline), inflation‑driven consumer restraint, and exposure to foreign‑currency and tariff headwinds. Nonetheless, the outperformance of The North Face® (+8% YoY) and Timberland® (+8% YoY) signals momentum in higher‑margin categories.
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Head‑to‑Head Comparison
| Dimension | Steven Madden (SHOO) | VF Corporation (VFC) |
|---|---|---|
| Core Business | Footwear, accessories, and limited apparel under proprietary and licensed brands. | Multi‑brand portfolio spanning outdoor (The North Face®), active (Vans®, Timberland®), workwear (Dickies®, formerly), and ancillary brands. |
| Revenue (FY 2025) | ≈ $653 million (Q1 2026) – ~10% of VFC. | ≈ $7.3 billion (Q3 2026), >10× SHOO. |
| Growth Drivers | DTC expansion, strong product assortments, brand‑licensing (Anne Klein). | Reinvent turnaround, North Face & Timberland growth, Dickies divestiture, pricing & cost‑control. |
| Margin Profile | Gross margin 54.7%; operating margin 15.1% (Q1 2026). | Adjusted gross margin ~52%; adjusted operating margin 11.8% (Q3 2026). |
| Risk Factors | Fashion‑trend mis‑steps, wholesale concentration, tariff exposure. | Vans underperformance, macro‑inflation pressure, execution risk of Reinvent, foreign‑currency volatility. |
| Capital Returns | Dividend $0.21, quarterly; modest share buybacks. | Dividend $0.09, quarterly; ongoing debt reduction, potential share repurchases post‑Dickies. |
| Valuation (Forward P/E) | ≈ 14.5× (FY 2026 guidance). | ≈ 14.5× (industry average), slightly below textile‑apparel median. |
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable fundamentals, Tickeron’s AI currently favors VF Corporation for investors seeking a blend of upside and defensive characteristics. The company’s sizable revenue base, diversified brand mix, and clear turnaround milestones (e.g., Dickies divestiture, Reinvent cost cuts) provide multiple catalysts that could lift earnings consistency. However, the AI also assigns a notable probability to Steven Madden outperforming on a relative basis, especially if DTC momentum sustains and the FY 2026 revenue guidance is met. In probabilistic terms, the AI estimates roughly a 58% chance that VFC will generate stronger relative performance over the next 12 months, with a 42% chance that SHOO’s high‑margin DTC growth could outpace VFC’s slower top‑line expansion.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SHOO is a StrongBuy and VFC is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SHOO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileVFC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SHOO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VFC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SHOO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VFC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SHOO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VFC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
SHOO (@Wholesale Distributors) experienced а -5.92% price change this week, while VFC (@Apparel/Footwear) price change was -5.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was -6.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.20%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear industry was -1.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.64%.
Reported Earning Dates
SHOO is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
VFC is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Wholesale Distributors (-6.70% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
@Apparel/Footwear (-1.13% weekly)Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.
| SHOO | VFC | SHOO / VFC | |
| Capitalization | 3.12B | 6.68B | 47% |
| EBITDA | 177M | 789M | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 3.740 | -4.810 | -78% |
| P/E Ratio | 40.31 | 26.61 | 151% |
| Revenue | 2.63B | 9.61B | 27% |
| Total Cash | 123M | 613M | 20% |
| Total Debt | 540M | 4.98B | 11% |
SHOO | VFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 23 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SHOO's Valuation (23) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as VFC (28). This means that SHOO’s stock grew similarly to VFC’s over the last 12 months.
SHOO's Profit vs Risk Rating (84) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as VFC (100). This means that SHOO’s stock grew similarly to VFC’s over the last 12 months.
VFC's SMR Rating (56) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as SHOO (77). This means that VFC’s stock grew similarly to SHOO’s over the last 12 months.
SHOO's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as VFC (48). This means that SHOO’s stock grew similarly to VFC’s over the last 12 months.
SHOO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is significantly better than the same rating for VFC (96). This means that SHOO’s stock grew significantly faster than VFC’s over the last 12 months.
| SHOO | VFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 69% | 9 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 7 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 78% |
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SHOO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHOO has been loosely correlated with OXM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SHOO jumps, then OXM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SHOO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 100% | -3.30% | ||
| OXM - SHOO | 64% Loosely correlated | +4.09% | ||
| KTB - SHOO | 64% Loosely correlated | -2.60% | ||
| COLM - SHOO | 63% Loosely correlated | -2.51% | ||
| LEVI - SHOO | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.38% | ||
| CAL - SHOO | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
More | ||||
VFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VFC has been loosely correlated with SHOO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if VFC jumps, then SHOO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VFC | 100% | -1.73% | ||
| SHOO - VFC | 63% Loosely correlated | -3.30% | ||
| COLM - VFC | 58% Loosely correlated | -2.51% | ||
| WWW - VFC | 57% Loosely correlated | -1.59% | ||
| NKE - VFC | 57% Loosely correlated | -4.45% | ||
| DECK - VFC | 56% Loosely correlated | -3.24% | ||
More | ||||