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SPG vs STAG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Simon Property Group (SPG) vs. STAG Industrial (STAG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SPG (SPG), the largest retail REIT, has outperformed with YTD returns of 10.45% and 1-year returns of 30.17%, driven by strong leasing and redevelopment.
- STAG (STAG), focused on industrial properties, shows YTD returns of 7.11% and 1-year returns of 19.48%, supported by steady acquisitions and leasing spreads.
- Recent REIT sector pressures from rising bond yields impacted both, but SPG's premium mall portfolio demonstrated resilience with near-96% occupancy.
- STAG benefits from industrial demand like e-commerce and data centers, achieving 4.1% same-store cash NOI growth in Q1 2026.
- Dividend yields stand at approximately 4.35% for SPG and 3.98% for STAG, both appealing for income-focused investors.
- AI analysis favors SPG for superior momentum and scale in the current retail recovery environment.
Introduction
Simon Property Group (SPG) and STAG Industrial (STAG) represent contrasting segments within the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector: premier retail malls versus single-tenant industrial warehouses. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders eyeing relative performance in a market sensitive to interest rates and sector rotations, and for long-term investors seeking income stability amid e-commerce growth and retail resurgence. Both stocks offer dividends and exposure to commercial real estate, but differ in growth drivers and risk profiles, aiding decisions on portfolio diversification or sector bets in today's volatile environment.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG), a self-administered REIT, owns and manages over 250 premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use destinations across North America, Europe, and Asia, totaling around 183 million square feet. As the largest retail REIT, it benefits from high-end tenant mixes and redevelopment projects enhancing experiential retail.
In recent market activity, SPG shares have shown resilience, with YTD total returns of 10.45% outperforming the S&P 500's 8.08%, and 1-year returns near 30%. Earlier volatility from rising bond yields pressured valuations, leading to a roughly 9% pullback in late February to March amid broader REIT selling. However, record 2025 real estate funds from operations (REFFO, a key REIT profitability metric excluding depreciation) of $4.8 billion, 96.4% occupancy, and over 17 million square feet leased annually bolstered sentiment. Recent catalysts include a $2 billion buyback, $5 billion credit facility extension, and Q1 2026 REFFO guidance of $13.00–$13.25 per share, supporting a rebound toward 52-week highs near $208.
STAG Overview and Recent Performance
STAG Industrial (STAG), a REIT specializing in single-tenant industrial properties like warehouses and distribution centers, operates a portfolio of about 601 buildings across 41 states, encompassing 120 million rentable square feet. Its strategy emphasizes acquisitions in non-infill markets with longer leases for stable cash flows.
Recent weeks have seen steady performance for STAG, with YTD returns of 7.11% and 1-year gains of 19.48%, trailing the S&P 500 slightly but reflecting industrial sector stability. Q1 2026 core FFO per share rose 6.6% to $0.65, same-store cash NOI (a measure of core property revenue growth) increased 4.1% to $159.3 million, and occupancy held at 95.1% overall (96.0% for operating portfolio). Acquisitions like a 748,833 sq ft building at a 6.1% cap rate (initial yield) and data center leasing momentum offset minor occupancy pressures from lease rolls. A shift to quarterly dividends at $0.3875 per share (annualized ~$1.55, up 4%) underscores balance sheet strength with net debt to EBITDAre at 5.0x.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
SPG (SPG) and STAG (STAG) diverge in business models: SPG's focus on upscale retail malls yields higher sales per square foot (~$736) and redevelopment upside, while STAG's industrial single-tenant leases provide predictable escalators (~2.9%) and e-commerce tailwinds. Growth drivers contrast—SPG leverages premium leasing (99% mall occupancy) and mixed-use expansions; STAG pursues acquisitions at 6%+ cap rates and data center pivots.
Recent momentum favors SPG with stronger YTD/1-year returns, but STAG offers lower volatility (beta ~1.01 vs. 1.36). Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity for both (net debt/EBITDA ~5x), tenant bankruptcies for retail, and lease maturities for industrial. Sector exposure highlights retail recovery versus industrial logistics demand, with market sentiment tilting toward SPG's scale ($65B market cap vs. $7.5B) amid resilient consumer spending.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward SPG due to its trend consistency, higher relative YTD performance, robust catalysts like leasing pipelines and buybacks, and stronger positioning in recovering premium retail versus industrial's maturing cycle. While STAG provides stability, SPG's momentum suggests higher probability of near-term outperformance, though both warrant monitoring amid rate shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SPG is a Buy and STAG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SPG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileSTAG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- STAG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SPG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STAG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STAG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) experienced а +5.70% price change this week, while STAG (@Miscellaneous Manufacturing) price change was +4.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +4.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.06%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry was +3.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
SPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
STAG is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+4.43% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
@Miscellaneous Manufacturing (+3.86% weekly)Miscellaneous manufacturing refers to a diverse range of products that cannot readily be categorized into other specific sectors of manufacturing. Major U.S. players in this industry include AMETEK, Inc.( analytical instruments, precision components and specialty materials), Dover Corporation (solutions for efficiency and safety of extracting oil and gas, e.g. rod lifts, progressing cavity pumps, gas lifts etc.; solutions for the transportation/transformation of solid waste; products for safe handling of critical fluids for various industries; systems for commercial-refrigeration, heating and cooling, and food and beverage packaging), and Carlisle Companies Incorporated (niche markets including commercial roofing, energy, lawn and garden, mining and construction equipment, aerospace and electronics, dining and food delivery, and healthcare), among others.
| SPG | STAG | SPG / STAG | |
| Capitalization | 69B | 7.26B | 950% |
| EBITDA | 8.23B | 691M | 1,191% |
| Gain YTD | 17.572 | 4.468 | 393% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.80 | 29.45 | 50% |
| Revenue | 6.65B | 864M | 770% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 8.86M | - |
| Total Debt | 29B | 3.23B | 898% |
SPG | STAG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 67 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
STAG's Valuation (8) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for SPG (96). This means that STAG’s stock grew significantly faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STAG (67). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than STAG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for STAG (81). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than STAG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (22) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STAG (56). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than STAG’s over the last 12 months.
STAG's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (90). This means that STAG’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| SPG | STAG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 7 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 47% | 9 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 43% |
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SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with FR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then FR could also see price increases.