SPY
Price
$749.92Alerts
Change
-$2.77 (-0.37%)
Updated
Nov 10 closing price
Net Assets
775.44B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
TOPT
Price
$33.33Alerts
Change
-$0.25 (-0.74%)
Updated
Nov 10 closing price
Net Assets
686.12M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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SPY vs TOPT

SPY vs TOPT Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 21, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) vs. iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT)

1) Key Takeaways

  • SPY tracks the full S&P 500 Index with roughly 500 holdings, offering broad, diversified large-cap U.S. equity exposure across all 11 sectors.
  • TOPT tracks the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization, concentrating risk in a narrow basket of mega-cap technology and growth names.
  • Cost structure differs meaningfully: SPY charges about 0.09%, while TOPT carries a 0.20% expense ratio — a notable gap for long-term investors.
  • TOPT is far more concentrated, with its top holdings dominating the portfolio and information technology representing over half of assets, versus a more balanced sector mix in SPY.
  • SPY provides broad market beta, while TOPT offers amplified exposure to the largest-cap, highest-momentum stocks, making it more sensitive to sector and single-stock risk.
  • Both are passively managed, but their diversification profiles and volatility characteristics are fundamentally different.

2) Introduction

Investors evaluating U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) often weigh the trade-off between diversification and concentration. SPY and TOPT sit at opposite ends of that spectrum. SPY, the largest and most widely traded ETF in the world, delivers exposure to the entire S&P 500. TOPT, launched in late 2024, narrows the same universe to only the 20 largest companies. While both funds draw from the same underlying index family, they are not direct competitors; rather, they represent alternative approaches to U.S. large-cap investing — one prioritizing breadth and stability, the other prioritizing concentrated mega-cap leadership.

3) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Overview

SPY seeks to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 Index, a market-capitalization-weighted benchmark of approximately 500 of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies. Launched in 1993, it is a passively managed fund structured as a unit investment trust and remains one of the most liquid securities in the world. The fund holds roughly 500 to 505 positions, with its largest weightings in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL — each representing well under 10% of assets. Its sector exposure is diversified, with information technology near 38–40%, followed by financials, communication services, consumer discretionary, health care, and industrials. The expense ratio is approximately 0.09%. SPY's hallmark is breadth: no single stock or sector dominates, which moderates idiosyncratic risk.

4) iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) Overview

TOPT tracks the S&P 500 Top 20 Select Index, composed of the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization within the S&P 500. Launched in October 2024, it is a passively managed fund holding roughly 20 to 25 positions. Concentration is the defining feature: NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT together account for roughly 40% of the portfolio, with additional weight in META, MU, AMZN, AVGO, TSLA, and LLY. Information technology comprises roughly 50% or more of assets, with financials, consumer discretionary, communication services, and health care rounding out the balance. The expense ratio is 0.20%. TOPT is built for investors seeking direct, amplified exposure to the market's largest and most influential companies.

5) Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both funds are heavily shaped by the same macro environment, but to different degrees. The dominance of mega-cap technology — particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductor leaders — has driven much of U.S. equity performance in recent market cycles. Capital flows have favored large-cap growth as investors reward companies with strong earnings momentum and scale advantages. At the same time, concentration risk has drawn regulatory and academic attention, while interest-rate expectations and earnings revisions among the largest names continue to influence broad-market direction. For SPY, this environment translates into meaningful but bounded tech exposure. For TOPT, the same themes are magnified, making the fund highly responsive to shifts in a handful of bellwether stocks.

6) Performance and Positioning Comparison

In recent weeks and months, TOPT's concentrated mega-cap bias has generally amplified both gains and drawdowns relative to SPY. When the largest technology names rally, TOPT tends to outperform; when sentiment toward those stocks cools or broadens toward mid-cap and value segments, SPY's diversification typically cushions the decline. SPY's balanced sector mix provides steadier relative positioning, while TOPT's narrow focus heightens volatility and single-stock sensitivity. Dividend income also differs, with SPY offering a modest yield near 1% versus a lower trailing yield for TOPT. Investors should view SPY as broad market exposure and TOPT as a higher-beta, growth-concentrated vehicle whose returns hinge disproportionately on a small group of industry leaders.

7) AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities far more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your own market research.

8) Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on structural characteristics, Tickeron's AI would likely favor each fund for different objectives rather than issuing a single universal verdict. For investors prioritizing diversification, lower cost, and steadier relative positioning, SPY's breadth and 0.09% expense ratio are compelling. However, in an environment where mega-cap technology leadership and trend consistency remain dominant, TOPT's concentrated exposure to the largest, highest-momentum companies may offer stronger short- to medium-term upside — at the cost of materially higher volatility and concentration risk. The AI's preference would therefore tilt toward TOPT for momentum-oriented positioning, while recognizing SPY as the more structurally resilient, cost-efficient core holding. This is an analytical assessment, not investment advice.

9) Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
SPY vs. TOPT commentary
Nov 11, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SPY is a Buy and TOPT is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for SPY with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

SPY in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026

SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 34 of 37 cases where SPY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 44 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.

Following a +2.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in 291 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In 65 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.

SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.

The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TOPT with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

TOPT in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026

TOPT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 16 of 17 cases where TOPT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TOPT's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 5 of 9 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOPT advanced for three days, in 108 of 132 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TOPT as a result. In 25 of 28 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TOPT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 15 of the 21 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.

TOPT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for TOPT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 3 of 4 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOPT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.

The Aroon Indicator for TOPT entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
SPYTOPT
RSI
ODDS (%)
N/A
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
56%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
89%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
84%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
89%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
71%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
71%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
77%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
78%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
80%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
86%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 3 days ago
82%
Bullish Trend 3 days ago
82%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 10 days ago
76%
Bearish Trend 10 days ago
79%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
82%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
90%
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TOPT and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor tells us that TOPT and JPM have been poorly correlated (+15% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that TOPT and JPM's prices will move in lockstep.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TOPT
1D Price
Change %
TOPT100%
-0.74%
JPM - TOPT
15%
Poorly correlated
-0.00%
COST - TOPT
6%
Poorly correlated
-0.00%
CSCO - TOPT
6%
Poorly correlated
-0.51%
META - TOPT
5%
Poorly correlated
+0.00%
UNH - TOPT
5%
Poorly correlated
+1.89%
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