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SRCE vs TSBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) vs. Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both SRCE and TSBK are regional bank holding companies that have delivered strong 52-week gains, reflecting broad strength in the community banking sector.
- SRCE is significantly larger, with a market capitalization near $2 billion, versus roughly $353 million for TSBK.
- SRCE generates higher profitability metrics, including a return on equity (ROE) of about 13%, compared with roughly 12% for TSBK.
- TSBK offers a notably higher dividend yield (around 2.6%) and trades at a lower price-to-book ratio than SRCE.
- Both names show low beta (a measure of volatility versus the broader market), with TSBK displaying exceptionally low volatility and SRCE offering a more diversified revenue base.
Introduction
Regional banks have been a focal point for traders and investors seeking exposure to rising net interest income, stable deposit franchises, and disciplined capital management. This stock comparison examines SRCE and TSBK, two community-focused lenders with distinct scale and geographic profiles. While both have delivered comparable recent returns, they differ meaningfully in size, diversification, valuation, and income characteristics. Investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning in the banking sector may find this side-by-side review useful, whether their focus is on growth, dividend income, or balance-sheet quality.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
SRCE is 1st Source Corporation, the holding company for 1st Source Bank, headquartered in South Bend, Indiana. The bank provides commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products, and it operates a specialized national equipment-finance business spanning construction equipment, aircraft, and truck leasing. This diversified model differentiates it from many purely deposit-and-lending peers.
In recent weeks, SRCE has traded modestly below its 52-week high after a strong multi-month advance. The stock has gained roughly 47% over the trailing year and about 36% year to date, with a low five-year beta near 0.56. Profitability remains solid, with a return on assets (ROA, measuring profit generated from total assets) near 1.9% and a return on equity near 13%. The shares carry a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 12 and a dividend yield near 2%. Sentiment has been supported by consistent earnings growth and a steady dividend, though valuation now sits modestly above some regional-bank peers.
TSBK Overview and Recent Performance
TSBK is Timberland Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Timberland Bank, based in Hoquiam, Washington. It is a smaller community bank focused on residential, multifamily, commercial real estate, construction, and commercial business lending in the Pacific Northwest. Timberland is known for a conservative, highly liquid balance sheet and historically low loan-loss provisions.
Like its larger peer, TSBK has posted a strong trailing-year performance, advancing roughly 44% and about 27% year to date, with an extremely low five-year beta near 0.30. The stock trades near its 50-day moving average after a period of consolidation below its 52-week high. Profitability is healthy, with an ROA near 1.6% and an ROE near 12%. TSBK offers a higher dividend yield of about 2.6% and trades at a lower price-to-book multiple than SRCE, reflecting its smaller scale and thinner trading liquidity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and diversification. SRCE operates a roughly $2 billion market-cap franchise spanning banking, wealth advisory, insurance, and a nationwide specialty-finance arm, which broadens its revenue sources beyond traditional lending. TSBK, by comparison, is a focused Washington-state community bank with a market cap near $353 million and a heavier reliance on real-estate lending.
On valuation, TSBK trades at a lower price-to-book ratio (about 1.29 versus roughly 1.55) and a slightly lower P/E (about 11.4 versus 12.2), while offering a materially higher dividend yield. SRCE counters with stronger profitability metrics and a more diversified earnings base. Risk profiles differ too: TSBK carries geographic and concentration exposure tied to Pacific Northwest real estate, whereas SRCE faces broader commercial and specialty-finance credit exposure. Both stocks exhibit low volatility, but TSBK's modest average trading volume can amplify short-term price moves.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely show a modest preference for SRCE in the current environment. Its larger scale, diversified revenue streams across banking, insurance, wealth, and specialty finance, and comparatively stronger ROE and ROA suggest greater trend consistency and resilience across market cycles. That said, TSBK presents a more favorable income and valuation profile, with a higher yield and lower price-to-book multiple that may appeal to yield-focused investors. The relative positioning is therefore nuanced: SRCE may be favored for momentum and diversification, while TSBK may hold an edge for income and value. The outcome ultimately depends on the weighting an AI model assigns to growth, stability, and valuation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SRCE is a Buy and TSBK is a Buy.
SRCE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
SRCE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 53 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 64 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 45 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +0.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 103 of 248 cases where SRCE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 42%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.598) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (12.473) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
Momentum Indicator for TSBK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TSBK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TSBK just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TSBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
TSBK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSBK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +0.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSBK advanced for three days, in 184 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 184 of 302 cases where TSBK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TSBK moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 69 cases where TSBK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
TSBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSBK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.365) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (11.960) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.560) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.405) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
SRCE | TSBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSBK's Valuation (74) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (80) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TSBK (18) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TSBK (46) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (42) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (20) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
| SRCE | TSBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 29 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SRCE’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TSBK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SRCE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSBK’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SRCE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- TSBK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SRCE (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.14% price change this week, while TSBK (@Regional Banks) price change was +2.13% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.80%.
Reported Earning Dates
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.23% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with CAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then CAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | -0.16% | ||
| CAC - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | -0.13% | ||
| FMBH - SRCE | 86% Closely correlated | +0.10% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 86% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.42% | ||
More | ||||
TSBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSBK has been closely correlated with THFF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSBK jumps, then THFF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSBK | 100% | -0.72% | ||
| THFF - TSBK | 77% Closely correlated | -0.13% | ||
| IBCP - TSBK | 75% Closely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| SRCE - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | -0.16% | ||
| PCB - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | -1.41% | ||
| FMBH - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +0.10% | ||
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