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TSM vs TSMX
Which ETF would AI Choose? Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM) vs. Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares (TSMX)
Key Takeaways
- TSM is a sponsored ADR (American Depositary Receipt) representing a single equity security, while TSMX is a leveraged single-stock ETF that seeks 200% (2x) of TSM's daily return.
- The two vehicles differ sharply in cost structure: TSM carries no fund-level expense ratio, whereas TSMX charges a net expense ratio of roughly 0.99%.
- TSMX is built for short-term, single-day trading and is exposed to volatility decay (compounding effects) over longer holding periods.
- Both are concentrated in one issuer and provide no portfolio diversification beyond Taiwan Semiconductor's own operations.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: The AI would favor TSM for its structural simplicity, lower cost, and absence of leveraged decay.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to the global semiconductor foundry leader often confront two instruments with the same underlying driver but very different mechanics: TSM and TSMX. One is a direct equity stake, while the other is a leveraged wrapper that amplifies daily moves. This ETF comparison matters right now because artificial-intelligence-driven demand for advanced chips has elevated semiconductor equities to a central role in portfolio construction. Understanding the structural differences, cost profiles, and risk characteristics of these two tickers helps investors match their chosen vehicle to their time horizon and risk tolerance.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM) Overview
TSM is the NYSE-listed sponsored ADR of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry. Rather than a diversified fund, TSM is a single equity security, meaning it holds no portfolio of stocks and offers no sector diversification. Its exposure is concentrated entirely in the company's operations, which span advanced logic chip manufacturing across leading-edge nodes used in smartphones, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence accelerators.
Because it is an equity instrument rather than a fund, TSM carries no fund-level expense ratio; investors incur only minimal ADR depositary fees. Its revenue base is tied to major customers including NVDA (Nvidia), AMD, AAPL (Apple), QCOM (Qualcomm), and AVGO (Broadcom). As a single-company position, its risk profile is defined by semiconductor cyclicality, manufacturing execution, and geopolitical concentration in Taiwan.
Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares (TSMX) Overview
TSMX is the Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares, a leveraged single-stock ETF launched in October 2024. The fund seeks daily investment results of 200% of the daily percentage change in TSM, before fees and expenses. To achieve this, TSMX invests at least 80% of its net assets in the securities of TSM and in financial instruments such as swap agreements and options that, in combination, deliver the targeted leverage.
The fund is non-diversified and effectively actively managed through its use of derivatives. It carries a net expense ratio of approximately 0.99% and had assets under management (AUM) of roughly $600 million in recent reports. Critically, TSMX is designed for single-day holding periods; its 2x target resets daily, so returns over multiple days can diverge materially from two times the underlying's cumulative return due to compounding and volatility decay.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
Both instruments sit at the center of the artificial-intelligence infrastructure cycle. Surging demand for advanced chips, high-bandwidth memory, and data-center accelerators has driven semiconductor foundries to run near full capacity on leading-edge nodes. Capital flows into AI hardware and the broader information-technology complex have supported the sector in recent market cycles, while the U.S. CHIPS Act and similar industrial policies have incentivized onshoring and capacity expansion.
At the same time, the theme carries concentrated risks. Taiwan's geopolitical status remains a key supply-chain consideration, and semiconductor demand is historically cyclical. For TSM, these factors shape earnings directly; for TSMX, the same forces are amplified on a daily basis, magnifying both upside momentum and downside drawdowns.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Because TSMX tracks TSM at 2x daily leverage, the two instruments move in the same direction over any single session, but their relative positioning differs meaningfully over time. In recent weeks and months of strong AI-driven semiconductor momentum, TSMX has delivered outsized gains relative to TSM. However, in choppy or range-bound periods, the leveraged fund's daily reset mechanism can erode returns through volatility decay, even when the underlying is flat over the full period.
From a risk standpoint, TSM offers a lower-volatility, lower-cost core exposure to the foundry leader, while TSMX functions as a tactical tool for traders with short horizons and higher risk tolerance. The fund performance of each is ultimately governed by the same earnings cycle and sector rotation, but their structural profiles produce very different long-term outcomes.
AI Screener
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market using technical patterns, fundamentals, trend strength, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of securities with customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, making it easier to surface trade ideas, trending names, and breakout candidates than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to build a more systematic approach to your own market research.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TSM over TSMX as the more durable vehicle. TSM offers direct exposure to the world's leading foundry with no fund-level expense ratio and no leveraged decay, making it better suited to a wider range of investors and time horizons. While TSMX may capture amplified momentum during strong uptrends, its daily reset, higher cost, and compounding risk make it a specialized trading instrument rather than a core holding. On a risk-adjusted, structural basis, the AI's probabilistic preference points to TSM.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TSM is a StrongBuy and TSMX is a Buy.
TSM sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for TSM moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 49 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TSM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +6.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 234 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
TSM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 61 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for TSM entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.303) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (0.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TSMX's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for TSMX moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 5 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 5 of the 5 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 24 of 24 cases where TSMX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +12.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSMX advanced for three days, in 140 of 146 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
TSMX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSMX as a result. In 37 of 38 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSMX turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 22 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
TSMX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSMX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 6 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSMX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Aroon Indicator for TSMX entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
TSM | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| TSM | TSMX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 88% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TSM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while .
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TSM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
TSM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +4.45% price change this weekfor the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+6.05% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +4.25% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +5.24% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +6.05% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | +6.60% | ||
More | ||||
TSMX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that TSMX and TSM have been poorly correlated (+-8% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that TSMX and TSM's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSMX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMX | 100% | +8.12% | ||
| TSM - TSMX | -8% Poorly correlated | +4.25% |