VDC
Price
$242.57
Change
-$4.29 (-1.74%)
Updated
Nov 3, 04:14 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
7.97B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
XLP
Price
$89.17
Change
-$1.66 (-1.83%)
Updated
Nov 3, 04:15 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
14.81B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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VDC vs XLP

VDC vs XLP Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 30, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) vs. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Key Takeaways

  • VDC and XLP both deliver low-cost, defensive exposure to U.S. consumer staples, but they differ sharply in breadth: VDC holds roughly 100+ names while XLP holds about 37.
  • VDC tracks the broader MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Staples Index, while XLP tracks the narrower Consumer Staples Select Sector Index drawn exclusively from the S&P 500.
  • Costs are nearly identical — VDC charges a 0.09% expense ratio versus 0.08% for XLP — making fees a marginal differentiator.
  • XLP offers a higher dividend yield and greater trading liquidity, while VDC provides wider diversification and slightly stronger long-term total returns.
  • Both funds are heavily weighted toward mega-cap staples leaders such as Walmart, Costco, Procter & Gamble, and Coca-Cola.
  • Tickeron AI Verdict: VDC — the broader diversification profile and marginally stronger long-term total returns give VDC a slight structural edge despite XLP's lower cost and higher yield.

Introduction

Consumer staples have long been a cornerstone of defensive investing, offering essential-goods companies whose revenues tend to hold up through economic slowdowns. In the current market environment — marked by periodic volatility and shifting sector rotation — investors are revisiting these funds as ballast for diversified portfolios. VDC and XLP are two of the most prominent ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in this space, and while they compete directly for the same investor dollars, they pursue that goal through different index construction. Understanding their structural differences is essential for making an informed allocation decision.

Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) Overview

VDC is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Staples Index, a broad benchmark covering large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. consumer staples companies. This index approach gives VDC one of the widest portfolios in its category, holding roughly 100 to 107 stocks. Its top positions include WMT (Walmart), COST (Costco), PG (Procter & Gamble), KO (Coca-Cola), and PM (Philip Morris International), with additional weight in PEP (PepsiCo), MO (Altria), and MDLZ (Mondelez).

Consumer defensive names account for roughly 98% of the portfolio, with a small residual allocation to consumer cyclical and other sectors. The fund carries a 0.09% expense ratio and uses a full-replication, market-cap-weighted methodology. Its defining trait is breadth: by extending beyond the S&P 500 into mid- and small-cap names, VDC offers more comprehensive sector coverage than its large-cap-only peers.

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) Overview

XLP is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index, which is limited to consumer staples stocks within the S&P 500. This produces a far more concentrated portfolio of roughly 37 to 39 holdings. Its top positions mirror VDC's leaders but at different weights, including WMT, COST, PG, KO, and PM, alongside MO, CL (Colgate-Palmolive), TGT (Target), MDLZ, and PEP.

The fund is essentially 100% consumer defensive, with a market-cap-weighted structure and quarterly index rebalancing. XLP charges a 0.08% expense ratio, marginally below VDC, and is one of the most heavily traded staples ETFs on the market, supported by substantially larger assets under management (AUM) and daily volume. Its concentration in S&P 500 giants gives it a purer large-cap, high-liquidity profile but less breadth.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both funds operate within the same macro environment. Consumer staples benefit from defensive positioning when growth concerns, inflation worries, or geopolitical uncertainty push investors toward stable, dividend-paying businesses. Demand for essential food, beverage, household, and personal-care products is relatively inelastic, which supports revenue stability across the cycle. At the same time, the sector faces headwinds from input-cost inflation, retailer pricing pressure, and the rise of discount and private-label competition. Regulatory scrutiny of tobacco and shifting consumer preferences toward healthier products also create long-term risk. These dynamics affect both ETFs similarly, but the funds' differing breadth means they respond to them with slightly different intensity.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Over recent months and market cycles, VDC and XLP have tracked each other closely, reflecting their shared mega-cap leadership. VDC has delivered slightly stronger long-term total returns over trailing multi-year periods, while XLP has at times posted marginally better near-term performance and a higher dividend yield. Both funds exhibit low beta relative to the broad market and comparable maximum drawdowns, underscoring their defensive character. The principal relative-positioning difference lies in concentration: XLP's smaller roster amplifies the influence of its top names, whereas VDC's wider net spreads exposure across more companies. In environments favoring large-cap quality, XLP's liquidity and yield may appeal; in environments rewarding diversification, VDC's breadth tends to carry a modest advantage.

AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool designed to help traders and investors filter the market using technical patterns, fundamentals, trend strength, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters covering industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, making it easier to identify trade ideas, trending securities, and breakout candidates far more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to build a data-driven view of the market.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Weighing structural strength, cost efficiency, diversification, trend consistency, sector momentum, and risk exposure, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VDC. While XLP holds a narrow edge on expense ratio and offers a higher dividend yield and superior liquidity, VDC's materially broader portfolio reduces single-name concentration risk and has been associated with slightly stronger long-term total returns. The cost difference of a single basis point is unlikely to offset that diversification benefit. The verdict is probabilistic rather than decisive — the two funds are closely matched — but on a structural basis, VDC's wider sector coverage gives it a marginal advantage as a core staples allocation.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
VDC vs. XLP commentary
Nov 03, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is VDC is a Hold and XLP is a StrongBuy.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VDC with price predictions
Nov 02, 2026

VDC in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026

The 10-day moving average for VDC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VDC as a result. In 81 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VDC just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where VDC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.

VDC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a +3.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VDC advanced for three days, in 252 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 212 of 299 cases where VDC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VDC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.

VDC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for XLP with price predictions
Nov 02, 2026

XLP's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLP turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where XLP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 43 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLP as a result. In 76 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.

XLP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for XLP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.

Following a +3.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLP advanced for three days, in 254 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 239 of 309 cases where XLP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.

XLP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
VDCXLP
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
76%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
81%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
74%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
76%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
80%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
79%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
87%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
79%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
81%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
76%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
79%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
77%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
81%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 7 days ago
76%
Bearish Trend 7 days ago
76%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
83%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
84%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
71%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
77%
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VDC
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
XLP
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
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VDC and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VDC has been closely correlated with CL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VDC jumps, then CL could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To VDC
1D Price
Change %
VDC100%
+1.87%
CL - VDC
74%
Closely correlated
+2.25%
PG - VDC
73%
Closely correlated
+1.23%
CAG - VDC
64%
Loosely correlated
+1.51%
MO - VDC
60%
Loosely correlated
-1.10%
GIS - VDC
60%
Loosely correlated
+1.34%
More

XLP and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XLP has been closely correlated with CL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XLP jumps, then CL could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To XLP
1D Price
Change %
XLP100%
+1.58%
CL - XLP
77%
Closely correlated
+2.25%
PG - XLP
74%
Closely correlated
+1.23%
CAG - XLP
66%
Closely correlated
+1.51%
GIS - XLP
64%
Loosely correlated
+1.34%
HSY - XLP
62%
Loosely correlated
+3.41%
More
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