Deere & Company (DE) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Deere & Company (DE) is scheduled to report fiscal 2026 third-quarter results on Thursday, August 20, before U.S. markets open; the quarter ended July 26, 2026.
• Wall Street consensus projects diluted earnings per share (EPS) of about $4.85, up roughly 2% from $4.75 in the year-ago period, on revenue near $10.8 billion.
• Deere has topped Wall Street EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters, including a fiscal Q2 2026 result of $6.55 versus expectations near $5.70.
• Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 net income guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, while tariffs remain a roughly $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion headwind.
• Investors will focus on Production & Precision Ag demand, Construction & Forestry momentum, Small Ag & Turf growth, and any update to full-year guidance.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Deere is a bellwether for global farm equipment, construction, and forestry markets, and its fiscal third quarter captures a key stretch of the North American growing and construction season. The report arrives while crop prices and farm income remain under pressure, tariff policy adds cost uncertainty, and interest rates continue to shape equipment financing decisions. The year-ago quarter showed a 9% decline in net sales and a 26% drop in net income, making this release a test of whether conditions are stabilizing. Fiscal Q2 2026 was stronger, with revenue of $13.37 billion and EPS of $6.55, though results were partly helped by a one-time tariff refund. Investors will watch whether core operating performance remains solid without that benefit.

Earnings Expectations

Consensus estimates call for diluted EPS of approximately $4.85, up about 2.1% from $4.75 in the prior-year quarter, on revenue near $10.8 billion, up about 4.3% year over year. Consensus figures have drifted modestly lower over the past 30 days, and some aggregators cluster EPS estimates closer to $4.71–$4.82 with revenue around $10.8 billion.

For comparison, Deere reported total net sales and revenues of $12.018 billion and net income of $1.289 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with equipment operations net sales of $10.357 billion.

Company guidance remains a central reference point. Deere has maintained fiscal 2026 net income guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, an effective tax rate of 24%–26%, and equipment operations cash flow of $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion. Segment outlooks from the fiscal Q2 call include: Production & Precision Ag sales down 5%–10% with an 11%–13% operating margin; Small Ag & Turf sales up about 15% with a 13.5%–15% margin; and Construction & Forestry sales up about 20% with a 10%–12% margin. Key metrics to watch include equipment operating margin, price realization, dealer inventory levels, order trends, and Financial Services net income.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into the report is cautiously optimistic but mixed. Deere’s fiscal Q2 beat supported confidence, yet tariff uncertainty and soft conditions in large agriculture equipment keep expectations in check. The stock has historically moved sharply around earnings: after last year’s fiscal Q3 report, Deere shares fell roughly 7% in premarket trading as sales declined. With consensus now projecting modest growth and estimates edging slightly lower in recent weeks, a revenue or margin shortfall could pressure the stock. In contrast, maintained or improved full-year guidance, continued Construction & Forestry strength, and solid Small Ag & Turf results could be received positively. Key risk factors include the company’s estimated $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion tariff exposure, weaker large-agriculture demand in Brazil, and elevated input costs.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

The most important signal after the release will be whether Deere maintains, narrows, or adjusts its fiscal 2026 net income guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion. That range reflects management’s baseline for the full year, and any change will likely drive the market’s interpretation of demand trends into late 2026.

Production & Precision Ag remains the segment to watch. Deere has said large-agriculture new-equipment inventory is down more than 50% from the mid-2024 peak, with used tractor and combine inventories also lower. Investors will look for continued progress on dealer inventory discipline and any signs of improving order activity in North America and Brazil.

Tariff policy is another swing factor. Deere has quantified its exposure at roughly $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion, equivalent to about a 3% margin headwind, and the fiscal Q2 report benefited from a $272 million one-time tariff refund. That makes Q3 a more difficult sequential comparison and raises the importance of underlying margin performance.

Finally, investors should monitor Construction & Forestry momentum, Small Ag & Turf growth, price realization, Financial Services credit quality, and equipment operations cash flow, which management has guided to $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion for fiscal 2026.

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