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AGQ or SHNY or UGL
Which ETF would AI Choose? ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) vs. MicroSectors Gold 3X Leveraged ETNs (SHNY) vs. ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL)
Key Takeaways
- AGQ, SHNY, and UGL all provide leveraged daily exposure to precious metals but differ in underlying asset (silver versus gold), leverage multiple, and product structure.
- AGQ and UGL are 2x leveraged exchange-traded products tracking silver and gold futures indexes respectively, while SHNY offers 3x leveraged exposure to gold via an exchange-traded note (ETN) structure.
- Expense ratios are identical at 0.95% across all three, though SHNY’s ETN format introduces issuer credit risk absent in the ETF structures of AGQ and UGL.
- SHNY’s higher leverage amplifies both potential gains and losses relative to the 2x products, resulting in greater volatility and a design suited primarily for short-term tactical use.
- AGQ and UGL operate as commodities pools using futures and swaps with limited holdings concentrated in derivatives, while SHNY provides synthetic exposure without direct holdings.
- These products share sensitivity to precious metals prices, macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates, and are positioned for investors seeking amplified short-term commodity exposure rather than long-term buy-and-hold strategies.
Introduction
AGQ, SHNY, and UGL represent distinct leveraged approaches to precious metals exposure within the commodities sector. While AGQ targets silver and the other two focus on gold, all three seek daily multiples of their respective benchmarks rather than long-term holding returns. They compete as tactical tools for investors seeking amplified exposure to gold or silver price movements, offering tiered risk profiles through different leverage levels and product structures. This comparison highlights how structural variations influence risk, cost, and suitability in the current market environment.
ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) Overview
ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the Bloomberg Silver Subindex. The fund employs futures contracts and swaps to achieve this objective and is structured as a commodities pool. It maintains a small number of holdings primarily consisting of silver futures and related swaps. The expense ratio stands at 0.95%. AGQ does not hold physical silver and follows a rolling futures methodology. Its design emphasizes daily leveraged exposure to silver price movements.
MicroSectors Gold 3X Leveraged ETNs (SHNY) Overview
MicroSectors Gold 3X Leveraged ETNs (SHNY) provide three times (3x) the daily performance of the LBMA Gold Price PM, with exposure achieved through an exchange-traded note (ETN) issued by Bank of Montreal. As an ETN, SHNY represents a senior unsecured debt obligation rather than a fund holding assets directly. It tracks gold via reference to the performance of SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD). The expense ratio is 0.95%. SHNY contains no traditional holdings and carries issuer credit risk. The product targets short-term daily results and is not intended for extended holding periods.
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) Overview
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the Bloomberg Gold Subindex. Like AGQ, UGL uses futures and swaps within a commodities pool structure. Holdings are limited and centered on gold futures contracts and related derivatives. The expense ratio is 0.95%. UGL does not invest directly in physical gold and employs a rolling futures approach. The fund is constructed for daily leveraged gold exposure.
Industry and Thematic Landscape
The precious metals sector remains influenced by macroeconomic drivers including inflation expectations, real interest rates, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments. Gold and silver often serve as stores of value during periods of economic uncertainty or currency volatility. Capital flows into the sector can reflect broader risk sentiment, with gold typically attracting defensive interest and silver exhibiting greater industrial demand sensitivity. Regulatory considerations for leveraged products emphasize their short-term nature, while supply dynamics and mining sector trends affect underlying price movements. These factors collectively shape the environment for leveraged precious metals products.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
In recent market cycles, the higher 3x leverage of SHNY has produced greater volatility and larger drawdowns compared with the 2x products during periods of adverse precious metals price movements. AGQ’s silver focus introduces additional volatility relative to the gold-oriented UGL and SHNY due to silver’s historically higher price swings. Performance differences arise from leverage multiples, the distinct price behaviors of gold versus silver, and structural elements such as futures roll costs. Over recent months, relative positioning has reflected varying sensitivities to interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand, with leveraged structures amplifying benchmark moves in both directions.
AI Screener
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener for advanced market insights.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural characteristics, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic preference to ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) among the three. Its 2x leverage offers a balance of amplification and relative stability compared with SHNY’s higher 3x exposure and associated volatility, while the gold focus provides broader liquidity and lower concentration risk than AGQ’s silver emphasis. Cost efficiency is equivalent across the group, yet UGL’s ETF structure avoids ETN credit considerations. This positioning reflects emphasis on risk-adjusted durability within the leveraged precious metals category.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
AGQ sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
AGQ saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 23, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AGQ as a result. In 73 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
AGQ moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AGQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGQ entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGQ advanced for three days, in 275 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
AGQ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
SHNY's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for SHNY entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 110 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 93 of the 110 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHNY as a result. In 56 of 68 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHNY turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 33 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
SHNY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SHNY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 8 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHNY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for SHNY's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +6.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHNY advanced for three days, in 218 of 245 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
SHNY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
UGL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for UGL entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 138 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 114 of the 138 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UGL as a result. In 69 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UGL turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
UGL moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UGL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UGL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for UGL's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +4.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UGL advanced for three days, in 289 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
UGL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
| AGQ | SHNY | UGL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 16 days ago 89% | 16 days ago 88% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 83% |
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