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APO or KKR or TPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. KKR & Co. (KKR) vs. TPG (TPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap is stark: APO manages roughly $1.05 trillion in assets, KKR about $758 billion, and TPG about $327 billion — three very different franchises.
- Business models diverge: Apollo is credit- and retirement-heavy, KKR is a diversified private equity, credit, infrastructure and insurance platform, while TPG leans toward private equity, growth equity and AI-linked strategies.
- Recent momentum varies: TPG has lagged sharply, while KKR and Apollo have shown mixed but more resilient relative performance through recent market activity.
- Sentiment drivers differ: Apollo has faced private credit redemption headlines, KKR has traded on fee-margin strength, and TPG on fundraising and deployment momentum.
- Valuation sensitivity: All three carry premium multiples typical of asset managers, making them sensitive to earnings revisions and rate expectations.
Introduction
Apollo Global Management (APO), KKR & Co. (KKR) and TPG Inc. (TPG) are three of the most closely followed publicly traded alternative asset managers. Though all three sit in the same industry, they differ meaningfully in scale, strategy mix and growth drivers. This stock comparison is relevant to traders tracking relative performance in financials, as well as investors weighing how different alternative-manager models respond to the same macro backdrop of shifting interest rates, private credit scrutiny and the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Understanding each firm's market positioning helps explain why their share prices can diverge even when headlines appear similar.
APO Overview and Recent Performance
Apollo Global Management is a high-growth, global alternative asset manager with a heavy emphasis on credit and retirement services, anchored by its Athene insurance platform. The firm crossed a notable threshold in recent quarters, reporting assets under management (AUM) — the total market value of investments it oversees — above $1 trillion, a scale milestone few peers have reached. Fee-related earnings (FRE), the recurring management-fee income that excludes investment performance, hit record levels, supported by strong origination in investment-grade private credit.
Recent market activity has nonetheless pressured sentiment. Apollo's flagship private credit vehicle faced elevated investor withdrawal requests earlier in the year, and the stock pulled back from recent highs even as redemption queues began to ease. The credit-heavy model gives Apollo outsized exposure to how retail and institutional investors view private lending risks, making APO a more direct read on the private credit cycle than its peers. Relative performance has been choppy, reflecting both record earnings momentum and lingering concern around the wealth-channel business.
KKR Overview and Recent Performance
KKR & Co. operates a diversified platform spanning private equity, real assets, credit, insurance and strategic holdings. This breadth has helped the firm generate increasingly recurring earnings, with recent quarters showing FRE margins around 70% and management fees growing roughly 30% year over year. AUM climbed to about $758 billion, with balanced contributions across private equity, real assets and credit strategies.
Recent developments include the closing of the acquisition of Arctos Partners, an investor in professional sports franchise stakes, which added approximately $16 billion in AUM and expanded KKR's footprint into sports investing. The firm also participated in a large-scale infrastructure transaction tied to Kuwait's energy sector. On sentiment, KKR shares have shown resilience but not immunity to market volatility; management tempered its full-year adjusted net income (ANI) — a measure of total distributable earnings — outlook amid a slower monetization environment. Investors appear focused on the durability of KKR's fee engine versus the timing of performance income.
TPG Overview and Recent Performance
TPG Inc., founded in San Francisco in 1992, is the smallest of the three by AUM but has been growing rapidly. Its platform spans private equity, growth equity, credit, real estate and market solutions. TPG reported AUM of about $327 billion, up roughly 25% year over year, and has posted strong fundraising and deployment, including record trailing-12-month capital invested. The firm has leaned into AI-linked opportunities, with direct investments in large language model companies and participation in a major AI transformation platform.
Despite solid operating results, TPG has underperformed the broader market meaningfully over recent months, with its stock trading well below year-to-date highs even as the S&P 500 advanced. Fee-related revenue and earnings have grown at a strong clip, and the firm maintains a sizable pool of uninvested capital. Sentiment reflects a mix of enthusiasm about TPG's growth trajectory and caution around its smaller scale and the still-early contribution of newer strategies such as perpetual private equity and asset-based finance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three firms differ most sharply in strategy concentration. Apollo is a credit-first franchise whose retirement-services arm and investment-grade private credit origination drive fee growth, but this concentration ties its stock closely to private credit sentiment. KKR offers the most diversified earnings mix, with roughly equal fee contributions from private equity, real assets and credit, plus growing insurance and strategic-holdings income — a profile that smooths volatility but depends on monetizations for performance income. TPG is the growth-oriented underdog, leveraging smaller scale for faster percentage growth and an outsized AI-related narrative, but with less recurring-earnings ballast.
On recent momentum, KKR and Apollo have shown firmer relative performance than TPG, which has lagged considerably. Risk profiles also differ: Apollo carries wealth-channel redemption risk, KKR faces monetization-timing risk, and TPG faces scale and concentration risk within newer strategies. All three are sensitive to valuation, with premium multiples that leave little room for earnings disappointments in a rate-sensitive environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability and catalysts, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor KKR at this juncture. KKR's diversified, increasingly recurring fee engine and record fee margins provide a comparatively stable trend profile, while catalysts such as the Arctos integration and infrastructure deal flow support its market positioning. Apollo's scale and credit leadership remain formidable, but its private credit concentration introduces greater drawdown sensitivity. TPG offers compelling growth and an AI-forward story, yet its weaker recent relative performance and smaller base temper the probabilistic case. This assessment reflects relative positioning rather than any absolute prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
APO's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for APO moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 27 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 61 cases where APO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APO just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where APO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +3.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APO advanced for three days, in 247 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
APO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APO as a result. In 49 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The 10-day moving average for APO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for APO entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.398) is normal, around the industry mean (2.409). P/E Ratio (39.729) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.173). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.446) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.062) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
KKR in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
KKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 33 of 39 cases where KKR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KKR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KKR as a result. In 61 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KKR just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where KKR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +4.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KKR advanced for three days, in 234 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for KKR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for KKR entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KKR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KKR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.876) is normal, around the industry mean (2.409). P/E Ratio (27.266) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.173). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.398) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.382) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TPG turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TPG saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 63 of the 80 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for TPG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for TPG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TPG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TPG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where TPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The 50-day moving average for TPG moved above the 200-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TPG advanced for three days, in 232 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TPG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.021) is normal, around the industry mean (2.409). P/E Ratio (38.154) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.173). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.053) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.203) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TPG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
APO | KKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 7 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 90 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
APO's Valuation (83) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as KKR (83). This means that APO’s stock grew similarly to KKR’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as KKR (73). This means that APO’s stock grew similarly to KKR’s over the last 12 months.
KKR's SMR Rating (67) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (88). This means that KKR’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Price Growth Rating (70) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as KKR (71). This means that APO’s stock grew similarly to KKR’s over the last 12 months.
APO's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Investment Managers industry is significantly better than the same rating for KKR (90). This means that APO’s stock grew significantly faster than KKR’s over the last 12 months.
| APO | KKR | TPG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 71% | 5 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 11 days ago 68% | 11 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KKR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and TPG’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- APO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KKR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TPG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KKR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TPG’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KKR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TPG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
APO (@Investment Managers) experienced а +1.85% price change this week, while KKR (@Investment Managers) price change was +5.95% , and TPG (@Investment Managers) price fluctuated +4.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -0.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
APO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
KKR is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
TPG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-0.72% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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