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ASML or KLAC or NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. KLA Corporation (KLAC) vs. Nova (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML, KLAC, and NVMI all supply critical equipment for semiconductor manufacturing but occupy different niches within the value chain.
- ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography, while KLAC and Nova compete more directly in process control and metrology.
- KLAC recently reported a record quarter and raised its wafer fab equipment (WFE) market outlook, signaling accelerating demand tied to AI infrastructure.
- Nova has posted record revenue and market-share gains in metrology, with particular strength in advanced DRAM and advanced packaging.
- ASML's relative performance has been shaped by export-control headwinds and softer near-term bookings, even as its long-term EUV position remains intact.
- The three names carry distinct risk profiles, from ASML's China exposure to Nova's smaller scale and higher valuation sensitivity.
Introduction
The semiconductor equipment sector sits at the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout, making it a focal point for investors seeking exposure to advanced chip manufacturing. This stock comparison examines three publicly traded equipment suppliers: ASML Holding, the Dutch leader in lithography systems; KLA Corporation, a dominant force in process control; and Nova Ltd., an Israel-based specialist in metrology. Although they share a common industry, their business models, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. Traders and long-term investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning may find the contrast useful when assessing how these companies are positioned for the current demand cycle in leading-edge logic, memory, and advanced packaging.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding is the world's largest semiconductor equipment company by market value and the sole supplier of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing the most advanced logic and memory chips. Its high numerical aperture (High-NA) systems are central to next-generation chip production, giving the company a structural advantage that competitors have been unable to replicate.
In recent market activity, however, ASML's relative performance has been tempered by factors outside its core technology leadership. Export restrictions limiting sales of certain advanced equipment to China have weighed on sentiment, and the company's order intake has shown periods of softness as some customers recalibrate capacity plans. Broader commentary around memory-related spending and the pace of leading-edge fab investment has also influenced the stock. While ASML remains a bellwether for the industry's long-term trajectory, its near-term momentum has been more uneven than that of some process-control peers.
KLAC Overview and Recent Performance
KLA Corporation is the leader in semiconductor process control, providing inspection and metrology tools that help chipmakers detect defects and improve manufacturing yields. Its dominant market position — management has noted its process-control share is roughly seven times larger than its nearest competitor — supports a highly profitable business model with a substantial recurring services revenue stream.
Recent quarters have been notably strong. KLA reported record revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, completed a ten-for-one stock split, and raised its calendar 2026 outlook for the wafer fab equipment market to roughly the low $150 billion range. Management pointed to accelerating investment in AI infrastructure, leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced packaging as key demand drivers, with advanced-packaging process-control revenue expected to grow more than 70% year over year. This momentum, combined with disciplined capital returns, has positioned KLA favorably among large-cap semiconductor equipment names.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. is an Israel-based provider of material, optical, and chemical metrology solutions used in semiconductor process control. Although far smaller than ASML or KLA, Nova has carved out a growing position in advanced metrology, particularly in film and critical-dimension measurement, where it recently reported a market-share gain of roughly 400 basis points to become the second-largest vendor in that segment.
Recent financial results have been record-setting. Nova reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue, driven by robust demand for advanced DRAM, strength in advanced packaging, and broad customer engagement across logic and memory. The company has guided for continued growth and is working toward a longer-term revenue target of approximately $1 billion by 2027. That said, Nova's smaller scale and richer valuation multiple relative to its own earnings mean the stock can be more sensitive to shifts in sentiment and to the pace of customer capital spending.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among the three is scale and market role. ASML is a de facto monopoly in EUV lithography but carries outsized sensitivity to export controls and to the capital-spending decisions of a small number of leading-edge customers. KLAC offers broad-based process-control exposure with a highly profitable services franchise and a strong balance sheet, giving it a comparatively stable earnings profile. Nova is a faster-growing but smaller player whose fortunes are more closely tied to specific technology inflections in metrology, DRAM, and advanced packaging.
On recent momentum, KLAC and Nova have delivered stronger sequential financial results and more constructive guidance, while ASML's sentiment has been weighed down by regulatory and booking concerns. On valuation sensitivity, Nova trades on a higher multiple of its smaller earnings base, making it more vulnerable to sentiment shifts, whereas KLAC and ASML benefit from greater scale and recurring revenue. Risk profiles also diverge: all three face China exposure and cyclicality, but ASML's dependence on EUV demand and KLAC's memory-related margin pressures represent distinct near-term considerations.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and recent catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor KLA Corporation among the three. KLAC combines a durable competitive moat in process control, record-level financial results, an upwardly revised industry outlook, and a sizable recurring services base — factors that tend to support more consistent trend behavior. Nova offers compelling growth and share gains but carries higher valuation sensitivity and smaller scale, while ASML's long-term franchise strength is currently offset by softer near-term momentum and regulatory headwinds. These assessments are probabilistic rather than definitive and reflect the AI's reading of current conditions rather than a forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for ASML turns negative, indicating new downward trend
ASML saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 66 of the 89 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 190 of 243 cases where ASML Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (27.397) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.078). P/E Ratio (61.273) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.623). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for KLAC turns negative, indicating new downward trend
KLAC saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 70 of the 100 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KLAC turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
KLAC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KLAC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for KLAC entered a downward trend on September 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for KLAC's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for KLAC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +6.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KLAC advanced for three days, in 265 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
KLAC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KLAC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: KLAC's P/B Ratio (38.911) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.078). P/E Ratio (51.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.623). KLAC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.809) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.260) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
NVMI in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NVMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVMI as a result. In 66 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVMI turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
NVMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVMI advanced for three days, in 243 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NVMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 210 of 275 cases where NVMI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.039) is normal, around the industry mean (8.078). P/E Ratio (46.142) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.623). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.300) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
ASML | KLAC | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 83 | 94 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 42 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 15 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 42 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 13 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (62) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (84) and is in the same range as KLAC (88). This means that NVMI's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to KLAC’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as KLAC (42) and is in the same range as NVMI (53). This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to KLAC’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
KLAC's SMR Rating (15) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (20) and is in the same range as NVMI (45). This means that KLAC's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as KLAC (42) and is in the same range as NVMI (63). This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to KLAC’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as KLAC (13) and is in the same range as NVMI (31). This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to KLAC’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | KLAC | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 72% | 14 days ago 77% | 14 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while KLAC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and NVMI’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- KLAC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KLAC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVMI’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KLAC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -6.35% price change this week, while KLAC (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -11.32% , and NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price fluctuated -7.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -13.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
KLAC is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-13.49% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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