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BLDR or LII or WMS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Builders FirstSource (BLDR) vs. Lennox International (LII) vs. Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BLDR reported softer Q1 2026 results with a net loss and reduced full-year guidance amid lower housing starts and commodity price deflation.
- LII delivered stronger-than-expected Q1 results and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook, reflecting resilience in its HVAC end markets.
- WMS maintains a constructive long-term positioning in infrastructure and water management, with analysts maintaining Buy ratings ahead of its late-May earnings.
- Relative performance shows BLDR experiencing sharper recent declines compared with more stable trading in LII and WMS.
- Sector exposure differs: BLDR is most sensitive to residential construction cycles, while LII and WMS benefit from broader replacement and infrastructure demand.
- Valuation multiples have compressed across the group, with varying degrees of analyst optimism tied to earnings visibility.
Introduction
This comparison examines three building-products and infrastructure-related stocks—BLDR, LII, and WMS—that operate at different points along the residential and commercial construction value chain. Traders and investors focused on sector rotation, earnings momentum, and relative valuation may find the analysis useful for assessing positioning within the broader industrials and materials space. The review highlights observable differences in recent business trends, margin profiles, and market sentiment without forecasting future price movements.
BLDR Overview and Recent Performance
Builders FirstSource supplies building materials and services primarily to residential homebuilders. In recent market activity, the stock has faced pressure following its first-quarter 2026 earnings release, which showed net sales of $3.3 billion, down 10.1 percent year over year due to softer housing starts and commodity deflation. The company recorded a net loss and lowered full-year guidance, prompting analysts to trim estimates. Share repurchases continued, yet sentiment has remained cautious amid broader housing-market uncertainty.
LII Overview and Recent Performance
Lennox International manufactures heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning equipment for residential and commercial markets. Recent performance benefited from first-quarter 2026 results that exceeded revenue and earnings expectations. Management raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to approximately 8 percent while reaffirming adjusted earnings guidance. The stock has traded with relatively greater stability compared with peers in the building-products group during the same period.
WMS Overview and Recent Performance
Advanced Drainage Systems produces engineered water-management and drainage products used in infrastructure and construction projects. In recent market activity the shares have experienced moderate volatility ahead of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, scheduled for late May. Analysts continue to assign Buy ratings with price targets well above current levels, citing long-term exposure to infrastructure spending and water-management demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ meaningfully: BLDR operates as a distributor and manufacturer serving new-home construction, exposing it directly to housing-start fluctuations. LII focuses on climate-control systems with a larger replacement component that provides steadier demand. WMS serves infrastructure and civil-engineering markets, benefiting from longer-cycle public and private projects.
Recent momentum has favored LII following its earnings beat and raised outlook, while BLDR has seen the steepest near-term price decline. Risk factors include commodity price swings for BLDR, input-cost inflation for LII, and execution on upcoming earnings for WMS. Valuation sensitivity appears highest for BLDR given its earnings miss, whereas WMS retains premium multiples supported by growth narratives in water infrastructure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI currently assigns the highest probabilistic favorability to LII. The company’s ability to beat estimates and raise guidance provides clearer near-term visibility than peers facing housing or pre-earnings uncertainty. This assessment reflects statistical patterns in the data rather than any guarantee of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BLDR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLII’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and WMS’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- BLDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LII’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BLDR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LII’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMS’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BLDR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LII’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- WMS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BLDR (@Building Products) experienced а +10.61% price change this week, while LII (@Building Products) price change was +5.91% , and WMS (@Building Products) price fluctuated +5.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -0.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
BLDR is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
LII is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
WMS is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-0.50% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| BLDR | LII | WMS | |
| Capitalization | 9.59B | 19.6B | 11.8B |
| EBITDA | 1.21B | 1.15B | 870M |
| Gain YTD | -13.364 | 16.464 | 6.943 |
| P/E Ratio | 29.52 | 23.81 | 25.94 |
| Revenue | 14.8B | 5.26B | 3.05B |
| Total Cash | 98.3M | 50.2M | 223M |
| Total Debt | 5.29B | 1.96B | 1.79B |
BLDR | LII | WMS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 22 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 49 Fair valued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 49 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 81 | 15 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 43 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 57 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 48 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LII's Valuation (49) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as WMS (56) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry, and is in the same range as BLDR (57) in the Building Products industry. This means that LII's stock grew similarly to WMS’s and similarly to BLDR’s over the last 12 months.
LII's Profit vs Risk Rating (49) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as WMS (68) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry, and is in the same range as BLDR (80) in the Building Products industry. This means that LII's stock grew similarly to WMS’s and similarly to BLDR’s over the last 12 months.
LII's SMR Rating (15) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as WMS (40) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for BLDR (81) in the Building Products industry. This means that LII's stock grew similarly to WMS’s and significantly faster than BLDR’s over the last 12 months.
LII's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as WMS (44) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry, and is in the same range as BLDR (50) in the Building Products industry. This means that LII's stock grew similarly to WMS’s and similarly to BLDR’s over the last 12 months.
BLDR's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as WMS (30) in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for LII (57) in the Building Products industry. This means that BLDR's stock grew similarly to WMS’s and somewhat faster than LII’s over the last 12 months.
| BLDR | LII | WMS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | N/A | 4 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 66% |
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BLDR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BLDR has been closely correlated with FBIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BLDR jumps, then FBIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BLDR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLDR | 100% | +0.47% | ||
| FBIN - BLDR | 78% Closely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| BXC - BLDR | 76% Closely correlated | +3.52% | ||
| LPX - BLDR | 75% Closely correlated | +0.96% | ||
| MAS - BLDR | 73% Closely correlated | +0.31% | ||
| OC - BLDR | 73% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
More | ||||
LII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LII has been closely correlated with CARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LII jumps, then CARR could also see price increases.