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CARR or JCI or SPXC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carrier Global (CARR) vs. Johnson Controls International (JCI) vs. SPX Technologies (SPXC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CARR beat Q1 estimates with strong data center cooling demand driving revenue growth, though residential HVAC softness persists.
- JCI approaches Q2 earnings with robust backlog and service growth, supported by consistent beats and data center exposure.
- SPXC reported Q1 revenue up 17% and raised full-year guidance amid HVAC and detection segment strength.
- All three benefit from rising data center HVAC needs, but JCI leads YTD performance at ~21%, followed by CARR (~24%) and SPXC (~4%).
- SPXC shows superior margins and ROIC (return on invested capital), while JCI offers scale with higher market cap.
- Recent tariff changes pose short-term headwinds, particularly for HVAC imports.
Introduction
This comparison examines CARR, JCI, and SPXC, key players in the HVAC and building technologies sector amid surging data center and infrastructure demand. These stocks appeal to investors tracking industrial growth, energy efficiency trends, and AI-driven cooling needs. Traders focused on relative performance and momentum in recent market activity will find value in their contrasting profiles: global scale versus niche specialization. With broader economic shifts influencing sentiment, this analysis highlights objective metrics for informed stock comparison.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC-R) solutions for residential, commercial, and industrial applications. In recent weeks, shares rose following a Q1 earnings beat, with revenue up 2.4% year-over-year to $5.34 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.57 exceeding estimates by 12.1%. Surging data center orders offset residential market weakness and inventory normalization, boosting sentiment. Management reiterated full-year adjusted EPS guidance around $2.80, signaling confidence despite tariff pressures. YTD gains near 24% reflect improved momentum, though 52-week performance lags peers amid broader sector volatility.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) specializes in building efficiency technologies, including HVAC systems, fire/security solutions, and energy management. Approaching Q2 earnings, analysts anticipate $6.1 billion in revenue and $1.12 adjusted EPS, up 36.6% year-over-year, backed by a consistent beat history. Recent market activity highlights strong backlog growth to $18.2 billion, fueled by data centers and life sciences projects, alongside margin gains from new chiller platforms. Shares have advanced ~21% YTD and ~63% over one year, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by service demand and regional strength despite rising costs.
SPXC Overview and Recent Performance
SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC) supplies specialized infrastructure equipment, focusing on HVAC cooling towers and detection/measurement tools for industrial markets. Q1 results showed revenue up 17.4% to $566.8 million and adjusted EPS of $1.69, surpassing estimates; full-year guidance rose to $2.58-$2.65 billion revenue and $7.95 adjusted EPS midpoint. HVAC organic growth of 9.6% and data center expansions supported performance, tempered by startup costs and Section 232 tariff changes. YTD returns around 4% follow strong multi-year gains, with shares reflecting niche positioning amid capacity buildouts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CARR ($55B market cap), JCI ($88B), and SPXC ($10B) operate in HVAC/building tech but differ in scale and focus. CARR emphasizes residential/commercial HVAC-R with global reach; JCI integrates fire/security services (40% revenue); SPXC niches in cooling towers/detection. Growth drivers include shared data center tailwinds, but SPXC posts highest organic revenue gains (~10% CAGR). Recent momentum favors JCI (63% 1Y return) over CARR (-6%) and SPXC (41%). Valuation: P/E ratios ~43x (CARR), ~49x (JCI), 40x (SPXC); SPXC leads margins (~22% adj. EBITDA) and ROIC (~18%), JCI ROE (23%). Risks: tariffs hit imports; CARR/SPXC more exposed. Sentiment tilts positive on SPXC analyst upgrades.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors SPXC due to consistent trend strength, superior margins, raised guidance, and data center catalysts positioning it ahead in relative performance. JCI’s scale and backlog offer stability, while CARR shows recovery potential; however, SPXC’s niche efficiency edges it probabilistically in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CARR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileJCI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and SPXC’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CARR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- JCI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SPXC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CARR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JCI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and SPXC’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- JCI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SPXC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CARR (@Building Products) experienced а -3.23% price change this week, while JCI (@Building Products) price change was +2.55% , and SPXC (@Building Products) price fluctuated -0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -1.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
CARR is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
JCI is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
SPXC is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-1.29% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| CARR | JCI | SPXC | |
| Capitalization | 53.7B | 87.3B | 10.1B |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 3.52B | 506M |
| Gain YTD | 23.351 | 19.851 | 0.465 |
| P/E Ratio | 43.11 | 43.76 | 38.43 |
| Revenue | 21.9B | 24.4B | 2.35B |
| Total Cash | 1.37B | 698M | 156M |
| Total Debt | 12.6B | 9.52B | 674M |
CARR | JCI | SPXC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 86 | 69 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 64 Fair valued | 81 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 14 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 40 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 33 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 18 | 40 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (64) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (81) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry, and is in the same range as SPXC (85) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that CARR's stock grew similarly to JCI’s and similarly to SPXC’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as SPXC (19) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (54) in the null industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to SPXC’s and somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's SMR Rating (40) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as SPXC (60) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is in the same range as CARR (71) in the null industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to SPXC’s and similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Price Growth Rating (33) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as CARR (48) in the null industry, and is in the same range as SPXC (60) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to CARR’s and similarly to SPXC’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as SPXC (40) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (62) in the null industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to SPXC’s and somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
| CARR | JCI | SPXC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 64% | 12 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 49% |
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| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EAOM | 31.10 | N/A | N/A |
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| FAB | 95.19 | -1.04 | -1.08% |
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| GSLC | 140.00 | -1.67 | -1.18% |
| Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® US LgCp Eq ETF | |||
| DWM | 72.90 | -1.17 | -1.58% |
| WisdomTree International Equity ETF | |||
| JHAI | 32.61 | -0.92 | -2.73% |
| Janus Henderson Global Artfcl Intlgc ETF | |||
CARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CARR has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CARR jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARR | 100% | -3.09% | ||
| IR - CARR | 76% Closely correlated | -2.05% | ||
| LII - CARR | 74% Closely correlated | -2.80% | ||
| TT - CARR | 60% Loosely correlated | -3.13% | ||
| BXC - CARR | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.20% | ||
| JCI - CARR | 55% Loosely correlated | -1.34% | ||
More | ||||
JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | -1.34% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | -2.05% | ||
| TT - JCI | 64% Loosely correlated | -3.13% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 55% Loosely correlated | -3.09% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.23% | ||
| TREX - JCI | 44% Loosely correlated | -2.98% | ||
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SPXC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPXC has been loosely correlated with MWA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SPXC jumps, then MWA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SPXC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPXC | 100% | -1.23% | ||
| MWA - SPXC | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.35% | ||
| ITT - SPXC | 64% Loosely correlated | -4.08% | ||
| PH - SPXC | 64% Loosely correlated | -2.01% | ||
| IR - SPXC | 62% Loosely correlated | -2.05% | ||
| AME - SPXC | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.83% | ||
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