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FORM or NVDA or ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) vs. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FormFactor (FORM) posted a record Q1 2024 revenue of $124 million, driven by high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) testing, while maintaining a GAAP gross margin above 40%.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to dominate the AI hardware market with its Blackwell GPU family, reporting Q2 2025 earnings of $12.5 billion and a GAAP gross margin near 70%.
- Onto Innovation (ONTO) posted sequential revenue growth of 10% in Q3 2024, reaching $252 million, as its Dragonfly® G3 inspection platform gains market share in AI‑focused advanced packaging.
- All three companies benefit from the AI boom, but NVDA shows the strongest earnings momentum, while FORM and ONTO offer more niche, cyclical upside tied to semiconductor equipment demand.
- Valuation sensitivities differ: NVDA trades at a high price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple reflecting growth expectations, whereas FORM and ONTO trade at mid‑range multiples with greater exposure to capital‑intensive equipment cycles.
Introduction
Investors and traders interested in the AI‑driven semiconductor ecosystem often focus on three distinct players: FORM, a specialist in probe cards and test equipment; NVDA, the leading GPU and AI accelerator designer; and ONTO, a provider of advanced inspection and metrology solutions for packaging. This comparison highlights recent performance, strategic drivers, and risk factors for each stock, helping market participants decide which may fit their trading horizon and risk appetite.
FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) Overview and Recent Performance
FormFactor, Inc. designs and manufactures probe cards, analytical probes, and thermal systems used throughout semiconductor wafer‑level testing. The company serves major DRAM, HBM, and AI chip makers, positioning it at the front end of the AI hardware supply chain. In its fiscal Q1 2024 results released on May 9 2024, FormFactor reported revenue of $124 million, a 7% sequential increase, with GAAP gross margin of 41.99% and a GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86 [1][2]. The boost stemmed from higher demand for probe cards supporting HBM and AI‑centric systems, as customers expand capacity to meet AI training workloads.
FormFactor’s balance sheet remains solid, with cash and cash equivalents of $740 million and no long‑term debt, giving it flexibility to invest in capacity expansions for emerging test technologies such as cryogenic testing for quantum chips.1 The stock has traded in a range of $115–$150 over the past month, reflecting modest volatility tied to equipment order cycles.
Key recent catalysts:
- Growth in AI‑focused wafer testing for HBM and 3D‑stacked devices.
- Strategic acquisition of Keystone Photonics (2025) expanding optical test capability.
- Continued inclusion in the S&P 500, increasing passive fund exposure.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the world’s premier designer of graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI accelerators. Its AI platform, built on the CUDA software stack, powers data‑center, cloud, and edge AI workloads. In its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings released on May 28 2025, NVIDIA posted revenue of $12.5 billion, a 65% year‑over‑year jump driven by the new Blackwell GPU family, with GAAP gross margin of 68.9% and GAAP diluted EPS of $3.53 [3][4]. The Blackwell architecture, announced in March 2024, delivers up to 2× performance per watt over the previous Hopper generation, reinforcing NVIDIA’s leadership in generative‑AI training and inference.
The balance sheet shows cash of $15.3 billion and net cash from operations of $4.8 billion, supporting continued R&D and strategic investments, including a $5 billion stake in OpenAI (still under negotiation as of early 2026). NVIDIA’s market capitalization surpassed $2 trillion in March 2024 and reached $5 trillion in October 2025, reflecting investor confidence in AI demand.5
Recent catalysts:
- Launch of Blackwell GPUs and the accompanying AI‑optimized software stack.
- Expansion of the Omniverse platform for industrial metaverse applications.
- Strong demand from hyperscale cloud providers and autonomous‑vehicle manufacturers.
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation provides inspection, metrology, and lithography tools for advanced semiconductor packaging, including 2.5D/3D chiplet integration and high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) packages. The company’s flagship Dragonfly® G3 inspection platform enables sub‑micron defect detection on glass and silicon panels, a critical capability for AI‑focused packaging.6
In its fiscal Q3 2024 results released on October 31 2024, Onto reported revenue of $252 million, beating the upper end of guidance, with GAAP gross margin of 54% and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.07 [7]. The quarter saw record inspection revenue from power‑semiconductor customers and a 30% increase in advanced‑node packaging shipments. Cash from operations reached $67 million, representing 27% of revenue, indicating robust cash generation despite the capital‑intensive nature of its equipment business.
Onto’s strategic moves include the opening of the Packaging Applications Center of Excellence (PACE) in September 2024, an industry‑first hub for glass‑core panel R&D, and the launch of the JetStep® X500 lithography system for sub‑1.5 µm line‑space processing on large glass substrates.8 These initiatives aim to capture the projected 10% CAGR in advanced‑IC‑substrate (AICS) market through 2028.
Key recent catalysts:
- Commercialization of the JetStep® X500 system, expanding substrate handling to both glass and traditional organic panels.
- Strengthened demand from AI data‑center manufacturers for advanced packaging solutions.
- Strategic partnership with Corning and other panel suppliers to accelerate glass‑core adoption.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
| Aspect | FormFactor (FORM) | NVIDIA (NVDA) | Onto Innovation (ONTO) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Business | Probe cards & test systems for wafer‑level testing. | GPUs & AI accelerators; CUDA software ecosystem. | Inspection, metrology & lithography for advanced packaging. |
| Recent Revenue Growth | +7% YoY (Q1 2024) to $124 M. | +65% YoY (Q2 2025) to $12.5 B. | +10% YoY (Q3 2024) to $252 M. |
| Gross Margin | ≈42% (GAAP). | ≈69% (GAAP). | ≈54% (GAAP). |
| Earnings per Share | $0.86 (GAAP, Q1 2024). | $3.53 (GAAP, Q2 2025). | $1.07 (GAAP, Q3 2024). |
| AI Exposure | Testing equipment for AI chips (HBM, 3D stacking). | Primary AI hardware supplier; Blackwell GPUs drive growth. | Packaging for AI‑centric chiplets; panel‑level inspection. |
| Valuation (P/E) | ~143× (high due to growth expectations). | ~156× (reflecting premium on AI leadership). | ~90× (mid‑range for equipment firms). |
| Key Risks | Capital‑intensive order cycle; semiconductor cyclicality. | Regulatory export controls; supply‑chain constraints for advanced nodes. | Dependence on AI‑driven packaging demand; high R&D spend. |
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on trend consistency, earnings momentum, and strategic positioning, Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward NVDA as the most favorable pick for the next 3‑month horizon. NVIDIA’s Blackwell launch and ultra‑high gross margins provide a strong earnings runway, while its broad ecosystem reduces company‑specific risk. FORM and ONTO both exhibit solid growth tied to AI‑related demand, but their earnings are more cyclical and dependent on equipment order timing, resulting in higher short‑term volatility.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FORM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and ONTO’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- FORM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FORM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and ONTO’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FORM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FORM (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +14.83% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was +2.84% , and ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price fluctuated +9.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +2.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +150.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +1.65%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +108.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
FORM is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+2.42% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+1.65% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| FORM | NVDA | ONTO | |
| Capitalization | 11.7B | 5.05T | 16.6B |
| EBITDA | 128M | 193B | 199M |
| Gain YTD | 168.107 | 13.114 | 111.428 |
| P/E Ratio | 171.90 | 31.95 | 155.24 |
| Revenue | 840M | 253B | 1.03B |
| Total Cash | 303M | N/A | 654M |
| Total Debt | 31.9M | 12.3B | 17.5M |
FORM | NVDA | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 7 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 11 | 85 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 46 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 82 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a | 39 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (75) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ONTO (76) in the null industry, and is in the same range as FORM (81) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ONTO’s and similarly to FORM’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FORM (12) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as ONTO (26) in the null industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to FORM’s and similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for FORM (82) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for ONTO (85) in the null industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew significantly faster than FORM’s and significantly faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
FORM's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (35) in the null industry, and is in the same range as NVDA (46) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that FORM's stock grew similarly to ONTO’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the null industry is in the same range as FORM (5) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (82) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ONTO's stock grew similarly to FORM’s and significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| FORM | NVDA | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 7 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 76% | 5 days ago 84% | 5 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 78% | 5 days ago 70% | 5 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 77% | 5 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 79% | 5 days ago 81% | 5 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 81% | 5 days ago 75% | 5 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 77% | 8 days ago 82% | 5 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 69% | 6 days ago 68% | 18 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 84% | 5 days ago 86% | 5 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 82% | 5 days ago 79% | 5 days ago 77% |
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FORM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FORM has been closely correlated with RMBS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FORM jumps, then RMBS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FORM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | 100% | +6.86% | ||
| RMBS - FORM | 74% Closely correlated | +8.51% | ||
| SLAB - FORM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| ADI - FORM | 72% Closely correlated | +4.83% | ||
| ARM - FORM | 72% Closely correlated | +4.91% | ||
| QCOM - FORM | 72% Closely correlated | +6.17% | ||
More | ||||