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HRL or HSY or TR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Hormel Foods (HRL) vs. Hershey (HSY) vs. Tootsie Roll (TR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HRL trades near multi-year lows amid broader sector pressures and modest organic sales growth in recent quarters, with upcoming earnings drawing investor focus.
- HSY delivered strong first-quarter results with double-digit sales gains and beat estimates, supporting relative outperformance within consumer staples.
- TR shows steady year-to-date gains and consistent dividend history, reflecting defensive characteristics typical of smaller confectionery peers.
- Business models overlap in packaged foods but differ in scale, brand diversification, and exposure to commodity costs such as cocoa and meat proteins.
- Valuation metrics and recent momentum favor HSY among the trio, while HRL offers higher yield potential at compressed prices.
- Market sentiment remains cautious across the group due to inflation sensitivity and shifting consumer preferences in the packaged foods sector.
Introduction
Investors and traders seeking exposure to the consumer staples sector often evaluate packaged food and confectionery companies for their defensive qualities during economic uncertainty. HRL, HSY, and TR represent established players in this space, each with distinct product portfolios ranging from meat products to chocolate and candy. This comparison examines their recent stock behavior, operational developments, and relative positioning to assist market participants in assessing trade-offs in stability, growth potential, and valuation within the current environment.
HRL Overview and Recent Performance
Hormel Foods Corporation produces a range of meat, poultry, and other food products under well-known brands. In recent market activity, HRL shares have traded near the lower end of their 52-week range, reflecting pressure from elevated input costs and tempered consumer demand. The company reported modest organic net sales growth in its most recent quarter and maintains a focus on operational efficiency. Sentiment has been influenced by analyst adjustments ahead of the upcoming earnings release, with the stock exhibiting lower volatility compared to broader market indices but limited upward momentum in recent weeks.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company manufactures and markets chocolate, confectionery, and related products globally. HSY reported robust first-quarter results, including double-digit net sales growth and earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by strength in core brands. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, contributing to positive market reception. Recent performance shows outperformance relative to sector peers, supported by effective pricing and volume gains despite ongoing commodity headwinds. Broader sentiment benefits from demonstrated resilience in non-seasonal categories.
TR Overview and Recent Performance
Tootsie Roll Industries focuses on the production and sale of candy and confectionery items. TR has delivered positive year-to-date returns amid a defensive sector rotation, with shares maintaining stability typical of its smaller market capitalization. Limited major catalysts have emerged in recent periods, though the company continues its long-standing dividend payments. Performance reflects steady operations in a competitive candy segment, with sentiment remaining neutral as investors monitor broader consumer spending trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three companies operate in overlapping consumer staples categories but differ in scale and drivers. HSY benefits from strong brand momentum and international expansion, contrasting with HRL’s greater exposure to protein costs and TR’s narrower focus on traditional candies. Recent momentum favors HSY following earnings beats, while HRL faces headwinds from valuation compression and TR offers relative stability at a smaller size. Risk factors include commodity inflation for all, though HSY shows better pricing power. Valuation sensitivity appears higher for HRL near cycle lows, with market sentiment tilting toward established growth narratives in confectionery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including earnings consistency, relative price momentum, and sector positioning in recent periods, Tickeron’s AI models may currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term behavior to HSY. This assessment reflects stronger reported results and resilience indicators compared with the more compressed profile of HRL and the steadier but less dynamic path of TR. Outcomes remain subject to evolving market conditions and company-specific developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HRL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileHSY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TR’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- HRL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HRL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HRL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HRL (@Food: Major Diversified) experienced а +1.68% price change this week, while HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -4.87% , and TR (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price fluctuated +1.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Major Diversified industry was -3.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.97%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -7.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
HRL is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
TR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Major Diversified (-3.34% weekly)Companies in this industry usually make a diverse range of agricultural and/or processed food. Some prominent names in this segment are Mondelez International, which makes chocolates, biscuits, cookies etc. The Kraft Heinz Company specializes in ketchups, sauces, fruit drink pouches and many more. General Mills, Inc. sells flour and cereal. Kellogg is famous for its snacks and breakfast cereal. And so on down the line. As more and more consumers are looking for healthier options in food in recent years, several legacy food companies have responded by revamping brands to include organic and no-added-sugar versions, and/or acquiring healthy food firms, and even streamlining operations.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-7.32% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| HRL | HSY | TR | |
| Capitalization | 12.8B | 37.4B | 2.91B |
| EBITDA | 1.02B | 2.23B | 157M |
| Gain YTD | 2.368 | 2.880 | 8.174 |
| P/E Ratio | 27.79 | 34.37 | 28.86 |
| Revenue | 12.1B | 12B | 736M |
| Total Cash | 901M | N/A | 170M |
| Total Debt | 2.86B | 5.68B | 13.6M |
HRL | HSY | TR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 74 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 12 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 79 | 52 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 42 | 69 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 58 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 14 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HRL's Valuation (12) in the Food Meat Or Fish Or Dairy industry is in the same range as HSY (28) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TR (72) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that HRL's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than TR’s over the last 12 months.
TR's Profit vs Risk Rating (52) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as HSY (79) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HRL (100) in the Food Meat Or Fish Or Dairy industry. This means that TR's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than HRL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's SMR Rating (42) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as TR (69) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HRL (84) in the Food Meat Or Fish Or Dairy industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to TR’s and somewhat faster than HRL’s over the last 12 months.
HRL's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Food Meat Or Fish Or Dairy industry is in the same range as HSY (58) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as TR (60) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that HRL's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to TR’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as HRL (32) in the Food Meat Or Fish Or Dairy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TR (51) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to HRL’s and somewhat faster than TR’s over the last 12 months.
| HRL | HSY | TR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 53% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 19 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 40% |
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HRL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HRL has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HRL jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.
TR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TR has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TR jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.