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MPC or PSX or VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are leading U.S. refining and marketing companies that have delivered strong year-to-date returns amid favorable refining margins.
- Recent weeks have seen elevated analyst price target increases across all three, reflecting robust crack spreads and operational execution in a tightening fuel market.
- Capital return programs remain central, with each company expanding share repurchase authorizations and maintaining competitive dividends.
- Valero Energy (VLO) reported record Q2 net income, while Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX) continue to highlight high utilization rates and margin capture.
- Valuation differences persist, with Marathon Petroleum (MPC) often cited for relatively attractive forward multiples compared to peers.
- Sector exposure to refining margins and crude differentials provides similar cyclical drivers, though portfolio diversification varies slightly among the three.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) represent core holdings in the U.S. downstream energy sector. These refining-focused companies process crude oil into fuels and petrochemicals, making their performance closely tied to crack spreads, utilization rates, and broader energy demand. Investors and traders seeking exposure to refining margins, capital return strategies, and relative value within the energy complex may find this comparison relevant for assessing positioning in the current market environment.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, with significant midstream assets through its MPLX subsidiary. In recent market activity, the stock has benefited from strong refining margins and high utilization rates near 97 percent. Analysts have raised price targets substantially, citing tightening fuel markets and expected earnings growth ahead of the upcoming Q2 report. The company has continued its focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, supported by solid cash flow generation in recent weeks.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 (PSX) maintains an integrated portfolio that includes refining, midstream, chemicals, and marketing operations. Recent performance reflects additional share repurchase authorizations and steady dividend payments. The company has highlighted reliable operations and margin capture amid favorable industry conditions. Price targets have been adjusted higher by several firms, consistent with peer trends driven by refining strength, while the diversified earnings base provides a measure of stability relative to pure-play refiners.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy (VLO) focuses on refining with a complex asset base that benefits from processing a range of crude grades. Recent weeks featured standout Q2 results, including record net income and an earnings per share beat that exceeded consensus estimates. Multiple analyst firms raised price targets following the report, reflecting confidence in refining and renewable diesel operations. The company has also expanded its share repurchase program, underscoring strong free cash flow in the current environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three companies share exposure to refining margins and crude differentials, yet differ in portfolio composition. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) maintain higher concentrations in refining assets, while Phillips 66 (PSX) offers greater midstream and chemical diversification that can moderate earnings volatility. Recent momentum has been strong across the group, supported by elevated crack spreads, though Valero Energy (VLO) posted particularly robust Q2 results. Risk factors include sensitivity to seasonal demand shifts, regulatory changes, and potential margin compression. Valuation metrics show Marathon Petroleum (MPC) often trading at a relatively lower forward price-to-earnings multiple, while all three maintain active capital return programs that appeal to income-oriented investors. Market sentiment remains constructive, with analysts emphasizing operational reliability and balance sheet strength as key differentiators.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative valuation, operational execution, and capital return capacity, Tickeron’s AI analysis would likely view Marathon Petroleum (MPC) as the most compelling near-term candidate among the three. The combination of attractive forward multiples, sustained refining utilization, and substantial remaining buyback authorization creates a profile that algorithmic models tend to favor. Valero Energy (VLO) presents a strong alternative given its balance sheet quality and recent earnings momentum, while Phillips 66 (PSX) offers diversification advantages that could appeal under different weighting priorities. This assessment reflects probabilistic pattern recognition rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePSX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and VLO’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSX’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and VLO’s TA Score reflects 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PSX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -5.77% price change this week, while PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -3.67% , and VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price fluctuated -4.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -8.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.28%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PSX is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-8.53% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PSX | VLO | |
| Capitalization | 83.7B | 81.4B | 85.9B |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 9.2B | 13.7B |
| Gain YTD | 85.635 | 61.744 | 88.879 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.34 | 11.64 | 12.44 |
| Revenue | 135B | 134B | 139B |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 5.15B | 7.87B |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 27.1B | 11.3B |
MPC | PSX | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 78 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 50 Fair valued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 24 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 59 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 97 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (58) and is in the same range as VLO (79). This means that PSX's stock grew similarly to MPC’s and similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (14) and is in the same range as PSX (24). This means that VLO's stock grew similarly to MPC’s and similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (36) and is in the same range as PSX (59). This means that VLO's stock grew similarly to MPC’s and similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (4) and is in the same range as PSX (6). This means that VLO's stock grew similarly to MPC’s and similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (97) and is in the same range as VLO (99). This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to PSX’s and similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PSX | VLO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 75% | 9 days ago 74% | 9 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 60% | 16 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 76% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 71% |
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | +0.20% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 86% Closely correlated | +0.50% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 82% Closely correlated | +1.47% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -1.40% | ||
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