Advertisement
MPC vs PSX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MPC (Marathon Petroleum) has delivered stronger recent momentum, ranking among the best-performing energy stocks in the S&P 500, while PSX (Phillips 66) offers a more diversified downstream and chemicals footprint.
- Both refiners are riding record refining margins, but MPC has posted a larger year-to-date advance, supported by a 112% refining margin capture rate in recent quarters.
- PSX reported a record quarterly profit with 98% refining utilization and a record 41% distillate yield, while MPC paired refining strength with a 10% dividend increase and growing midstream cash flow through MPLX.
- Risk profiles differ: MPC carries concentrated refining exposure, whereas PSX balances refining with midstream, chemicals, and marketing segments.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: MPC — Marathon Petroleum currently presents the more consistent trend and relative momentum profile of the two.
- For deeper context, explore MPC Major News and MPC Today's Price Move, as well as PSX Major News and PSX Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently favored across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are two of the largest downstream energy companies in the United States, both positioned at the center of a refining cycle that has sharply widened margins between crude oil and finished fuels. This stock comparison is relevant for investors evaluating how concentrated refining leverage stacks up against a more diversified refining, midstream, and chemicals model. Traders focused on relative performance and market positioning will also find value in contrasting these names, as both have surged over the past year on tight global fuel supply, resilient demand, and disciplined capital returns.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the largest independent refiner in the United States, operating an integrated downstream platform across refining and marketing, midstream (largely through its majority interest in MPLX), and renewable diesel. In recent weeks, the company has stood out for both scale and execution. Management reported a refining and marketing margin capture rate of roughly 112% in the second quarter, with first-half capture above 100%, reflecting crude optimization and strong clean-product margins. Gulf Coast utilization reached full capacity during the period.
Sentiment has been reinforced by shareholder-friendly actions, including a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend and a substantial share repurchase program. MPLX adds a steadier, fee-based cash-flow stream that tempers the cyclicality of refining. The stock has been among the strongest in its sector, though recent trading has shown some pullback as investors weigh whether elevated refining economics are fully reflected in the price.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 (PSX) operates a more diversified portfolio spanning midstream, chemicals, refining, marketing and specialties, and renewable fuels. This breadth has allowed the company to capture value across the value chain while pursuing midstream expansion projects such as the Iron Mesa and Zeus gas plants and the Coastal Bend pipeline buildout. In its most recent quarter, PSX reported record earnings with 98% refining utilization and a record 41% distillate yield, supported by wider crack spreads and strong processing volumes.
Management has emphasized disciplined capital allocation, returning $2.8 billion to shareholders in the latest quarter while reducing net debt to roughly $12.7 billion — achieving its 2027 net debt-to-capital target ahead of schedule. The company also announced a second dividend increase this year. These factors have supported a strong year-to-date advance, although recent sessions have been choppier as refining sentiment cooled following a pullback in crude prices.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of automated trading strategies chosen for their suitability to current market conditions. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and universe of symbols. Rather than listing every bot, the platform highlights only the strongest performers most aligned with today's market environment, helping traders filter the noise and focus on strategies with demonstrated relevance. Whether you prefer short-term momentum or longer-horizon trend following, exploring Trending AI Robots can offer a data-driven starting point for your research.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is concentration versus diversification. MPC is a purer play on refining economics, which magnifies its upside when crack spreads widen but also leaves earnings more exposed when margins normalize. PSX spreads its exposure across refining, midstream, chemicals, and marketing, which can smooth volatility but may dilute the pure refining upside in a strong margin environment.
In terms of recent momentum, MPC has outpaced PSX on a year-to-date basis and ranks among the top performers in the broader energy group. PSX, however, has demonstrated strong operational execution, including record distillate yields and early achievement of its balance-sheet targets. Growth drivers also differ: MPC leans on high-return refinery projects and MPLX distributions, while PSX is investing in a multi-year midstream and petrochemical pipeline. On risk, both face commodity-price sensitivity and potential demand softness, but MPC's tighter refining focus represents a more concentrated exposure to those risks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative momentum, and sector positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor MPC over PSX. Marathon Petroleum has exhibited more consistent relative strength and superior year-to-date performance, supported by disciplined capital returns and a large, integrated refining footprint. While PSX offers a compelling diversification story and strong recent operating results, MPC's more pronounced exposure to the current refining upcycle and steadier relative momentum give it the edge in this comparison. As with any probabilistic assessment, this verdict reflects current conditions and may shift as market dynamics evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a StrongBuy and PSX is a StrongBuy.
MPC's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MPC moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 51 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +5.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 298 of 381 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
MPC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 267 of 351 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 42 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
MPC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MPC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.487) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (12.902) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PSX in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
PSX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 33 cases where PSX's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PSX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 52 cases where PSX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +4.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSX advanced for three days, in 278 of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 241 of 332 cases where PSX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PSX as a result. In 38 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PSX turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
PSX moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PSX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.112) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (13.977) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.811) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.704) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MPC | PSX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (73) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (85). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (10). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (40). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (39). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (85) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (94). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PSX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 8 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PSX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PSX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PSX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +9.42% price change this week, while PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +6.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +4.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
PSX is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+4.86% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
Advertisement
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.