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MPC vs PSX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) has significantly outperformed Phillips 66 (PSX) year-to-date (YTD), with a 52.11% gain compared to PSX's 37.66%.
- Both stocks have shown upward momentum in recent weeks amid favorable refining margins, but MPC exhibits stronger price appreciation from mid-April levels.
- PSX offers a higher dividend yield at 2.88%, appealing to income-focused investors, while MPC recently declared a $1.00 quarterly dividend.
- PSX reported Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of $0.49 per share (EPS), beating estimates despite hedging losses, with strong shareholder returns of $778 million.
- MPC shows positive analyst revisions, with Q1 EPS expectations up significantly ahead of its May 5 report.
- Market caps are closely matched at $72.49 billion for MPC and $70.64 billion for PSX, highlighting their peer status in refining.
Introduction
This MPC vs. PSX stock comparison examines two leading U.S. oil refiners in the integrated downstream energy sector. Both companies process crude oil into fuels and operate midstream and renewable segments, making them sensitive to crack spreads (the difference between crude and refined product prices), oil volatility, and economic demand. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing dividend stability or refining exposure will find value in analyzing their relative performance, recent catalysts, and market positioning in today's energy landscape.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy firm focused on refining crude oil into transportation fuels, midstream logistics, and renewable diesel production. It markets products under Marathon and ARCO brands to wholesale and retail channels.
In recent market activity, MPC shares have climbed steadily, trading around $246 with a 52-week range of $140.36 to $255.77. Year-to-date gains exceed 52%, outpacing the broader Oils-Energy sector, driven by robust refining throughput, positive EPS estimate revisions (up over 60% in the past month), and analyst upgrades. A recent $1.00 quarterly dividend declaration has bolstered sentiment, with Q1 earnings due May 5 amid expectations of strong profitability from favorable margins. Lower beta (0.53) reflects relative stability versus market swings.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 (PSX) operates across midstream, refining, chemicals, marketing, and renewable fuels, producing gasolines, distillates, and specialty products under brands like Phillips 66, Conoco, and 76. It emphasizes logistics, petrochemicals, and sustainable aviation fuel.
Recent weeks have seen PSX shares rise to about $176, within a 52-week range of $104.83 to $190.61. YTD performance stands at 37.66%, supported by Q1 results showing $207 million in earnings ($0.49 adjusted EPS, beating lowered estimates) despite $839 million in hedging losses. High crude utilization (95%) and $778 million returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks have sustained momentum. Dividend yield (2.88%) remains attractive, though beta (0.69) indicates moderate volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both MPC and PSX thrive on refining crack spreads and midstream volumes, but MPC leans more heavily on core refining (higher throughput capacity), while PSX diversifies into chemicals and renewables for growth. Recent momentum favors MPC with superior YTD returns and EPS upgrades, versus PSX's post-earnings stability.
Risk profiles differ: MPC's lower beta (0.53) suits conservative positioning amid oil volatility, while PSX offers higher yield (2.88% vs. 1.59%) for income trade-offs. Sector exposure is aligned to downstream energy, but PSX's international footprint adds currency and geopolitical risks. Sentiment tilts toward MPC on valuation (P/E 18.62 vs. 17.43) and 12-month outperformance (+76% vs. +67%).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models would likely favor MPC in the current environment due to its consistent upward trend, superior YTD relative performance, and positive pre-earnings catalysts like EPS revisions and dividend support. PSX remains competitive with solid cash returns and diversification, but MPC's momentum and stability provide a probabilistic edge for trend-following strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Hold and PSX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePSX’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PSX’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -7.09% price change this week, while PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -8.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -6.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PSX is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-6.63% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PSX | MPC / PSX | |
| Capitalization | 70.9B | 66.6B | 106% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 9.2B | 135% |
| Gain YTD | 51.740 | 31.562 | 164% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.99 | 16.42 | 97% |
| Revenue | 135B | 134B | 101% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 5.15B | 42% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 27.1B | 127% |
MPC | PSX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 40 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (40) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (63). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (36). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (100) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (100). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (46). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (81) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (89). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PSX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 75% | 16 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 67% |
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PSX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | 100% | -2.81% | ||
| MPC - PSX | 84% Closely correlated | -2.34% | ||
| VLO - PSX | 82% Closely correlated | -1.79% | ||
| DINO - PSX | 76% Closely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| PBF - PSX | 71% Closely correlated | -3.52% | ||
| PARR - PSX | 65% Loosely correlated | -3.20% | ||
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