AA Alcoa Corp Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

AA in -1.47% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on September 16, 2026

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where AA declined for three days, in 243 of 302 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for AA moved out of overbought territory on August 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AA as a result. In 75 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AA turned negative on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.

AA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.

The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +2.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in 235 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.

AA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AA's P/B Ratio (1.591) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.431). P/E Ratio (9.237) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.421). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.100) is also within normal values, averaging (0.345). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (0.849).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.