AAP Advance Auto Parts Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

AAP sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

AAP saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on December 16, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAP moved out of overbought territory on December 10, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 62 cases where AAP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on December 13, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAP as a result. In of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AAP moved above its 50-day moving average on November 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AAP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 14, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAP advanced for three days, in of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 252 cases where AAP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.019) is normal, around the industry mean (12.337). AAP has a moderately high P/E Ratio (170.860) as compared to the industry average of (36.771). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.623) is also within normal values, averaging (2.650). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.451) is also within normal values, averaging (19.104).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.