ALRM Alarm.com Holdings Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Momentum Indicator for ALRM turns positive, indicating new upward trend

ALRM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on January 16, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ALRM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALRM just turned positive on January 17, 2025. Looking at past instances where ALRM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for ALRM moved above the 200-day moving average on January 15, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALRM advanced for three days, in of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 62 cases where ALRM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for ALRM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 06, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALRM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ALRM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 21, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for ALRM entered a downward trend on January 23, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ALRM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.163) is normal, around the industry mean (31.561). P/E Ratio (46.510) is within average values for comparable stocks, (159.426). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.422) is also within normal values, averaging (2.763). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.409) is also within normal values, averaging (59.117).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALRM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.