BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

BABA sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

BABA saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on June 13, 2025. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 18, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

BABA moved below its 50-day moving average on June 12, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 18, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 148 cases where BABA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BABA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.920) is normal, around the industry mean (4.165). P/E Ratio (15.159) is within average values for comparable stocks, (49.157). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.901) is also within normal values, averaging (1.412). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.092) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.969) is also within normal values, averaging (6.547).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.