ERIE Erie Indemnity Company Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

ERIE sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line

ERIE saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on August 26, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 67%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ERIE as a result. In 54 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.

ERIE moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ERIE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ERIE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.

The Aroon Indicator for ERIE entered a downward trend on October 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ERIE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +5.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ERIE advanced for three days, in 207 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.

ERIE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ERIE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ERIE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.704) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (20.152) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (17.200) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). ERIE has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.026) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (3.070) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).