Lennox International Inc. (LII), a provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and climate-control equipment, has seen its analyst price target landscape reset sharply in recent weeks. Reviewing the most current, individually attributed targets yields a clear picture of divided opinion.
The seven freshest targets used here are: Morgan Stanley at $350 (Underweight), Mizuho at $395 (Neutral), Goldman Sachs at $390 (downgraded to Neutral), RBC Capital at $406 (Sector Perform), Wells Fargo at $424 (initiated coverage), Deutsche Bank at $444 (Hold), and Oppenheimer at $548 (Outperform). Their arithmetic mean is about $422, which rounds to the $420 central target used throughout this article. The range is unusually wide, from $350 to $548.
That dispersion reflects a genuine split. Morgan Stanley is the most cautious, cutting to $350 and keeping an Underweight rating ahead of earnings. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and slashed its target from $547 to $390, while Mizuho and RBC also trimmed. On the other side, Oppenheimer retained an Outperform rating even as it reduced its target to $548, and Wells Fargo initiated coverage at $424. The consensus view is best described as a cautious "Hold," with bulls and bears arguing over how much of the recent de-rating is justified.
LII closed near $363.77, leaving the stock just above its 52-week low of roughly $349. Reaching the $420 central target implies upside of about 15%, which can fairly be called a modest move for a stock of this volatility. The shares have fallen substantially from levels above $500 earlier in the year, meaning the path toward $420 would largely be a partial recovery rather than a new high.
The company's most recent quarterly report slightly exceeded EPS (earnings per share) expectations, with revenue up roughly 3% year over year, yet the stock still slid as analysts reset estimates. Lennox has guided full-year 2026 EPS to a range of $23.00 to $24.00, down from a prior $23.50 to $25.00. At a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) around 16, the stock no longer carries the premium multiple it commanded earlier, so reaching $420 would likely require both earnings delivery and some stabilization of investor sentiment rather than pure multiple expansion.
The stock sits just above its 52-week low near $349, which acts as the most important near-term support level. A break below that could invite further selling. On the upside, the psychological $400 level is the first notable resistance zone, followed by $450, an area where several analyst targets cluster and where the stock traded before the recent decline. The long-term trend structure remains down over the past year, so any move toward $420 would first need to reclaim and hold above $400.
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms vary and none guarantee a timeline. The key items to watch are the next earnings report and any revision to the 2026 EPS guidance, further analyst target changes, housing and interest-rate data that drive residential demand, and updates on the refrigerant transition. A stabilization in estimates, or an upgrade cycle, would be the clearest signal that the bearish reset has run its course.
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Can LII reach $420? The target is a legitimate, calculated midpoint of current analyst views, not a guarantee. It sits about 15% above the latest price and represents a partial recovery rather than a return to prior highs. Support comes from resilient HVAC replacement demand, the refrigerant transition, and the fact that most analysts still hold targets above the current price. The obstacles are equally real: a trimmed 2026 outlook, softer housing conditions, and a bearish Morgan Stanley target below the market. With targets ranging from $350 to $548, investors should treat $420 as a useful reference point while monitoring earnings, guidance, and the next round of analyst revisions.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LII has been loosely correlated with CARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LII jumps, then CARR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LII | 100% | -1.16% | ||
| CARR - LII | 66% Loosely correlated | -3.44% | ||
| MAS - LII | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| IR - LII | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.05% | ||
| BLDR - LII | 60% Loosely correlated | +2.93% | ||
| BXC - LII | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.98% | ||
More | ||||
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LII | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| LII | 100% | -1.16% |
| LII (3 stocks) | 99% Closely correlated | -1.34% |
| Producer Manufacturing (348 stocks) | 8% Poorly correlated | -2.86% |