GET DAILY SIGNALSLyondellBasell (LYB) Swings Back to Profit in Q3 Despite Earnings Miss
Key Takeaways
- LyondellBasell reported third quarter 2026 net income of $758 million, or $2.32 per diluted share, a sharp swing from a net loss of $890 million in the prior-year period.
- Excluding identified items, net income was $828 million, or $2.54 per diluted share, while EBITDA excluding identified items reached $1.5 billion.
- Sales and other operating revenues totaled $8.499 billion, and both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share came in below the consensus analyst estimate of $2.98.
- The company generated $1.7 billion in cash from operating activities and ended the quarter with $3.2 billion in cash and $7.7 billion in available liquidity.
- LyondellBasell repaid its €500 million note maturity and returned $224 million to shareholders through dividends during the quarter.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
LyondellBasell's third quarter results mark a meaningful recovery from the prior-year period, when the company posted a net loss of $890 million amid weak chemical demand and restructuring charges. This quarter's return to profitability reflects the resilience of the company's diversified, cost-advantaged portfolio, even as lower polymer and olefin prices pressured margins in its Olefins & Polyolefins segments. For investors, the report serves as a key gauge of commodity chemical demand, feedstock cost trends, and progress on the $500 million Cash Improvement Plan. The results also underscore the company's ability to convert earnings into cash, which remains critical in a capital-intensive industry for sustaining the dividend.
Reported Results
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, LyondellBasell reported net income of $758 million, or $2.32 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $890 million, or $2.77 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Excluding identified items, net income was $828 million, or $2.54 per diluted share, with EBITDA excluding identified items of $1.5 billion. Sales and other operating revenues were $8.499 billion, up from $7.727 billion a year earlier but below the consensus estimate of roughly $8.87 billion.
Both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share fell short of the analyst estimate of $2.98. The shortfall was driven in part by identified items totaling about $70 million net of tax, including closure costs related to a European propylene oxide joint venture. Profitability in the O&P segments declined sequentially on lower polymer and olefin prices, while the Intermediates & Derivatives segment delivered materially higher profitability on stronger oxyfuels margins. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The market's response to LyondellBasell's report centered on the earnings miss relative to consensus, with both revenue and adjusted EPS landing below expectations. While the year-over-year swing to profitability and the strong cash conversion were positives, the sequential decline in O&P profitability and lower polymer prices weighed on sentiment. Investors also weighed the company's diversified portfolio, where record Intermediates & Derivatives performance partially offset weakness elsewhere. The results reinforced a cautious view on near-term commodity chemical margins, even as the company's balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation provided a supportive backdrop.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, LyondellBasell provided fourth quarter operating rate guidance of 85% for North American O&P assets, 60% for European O&P assets, and 75% for Intermediates & Derivatives assets. These levels reflect a continued effort to align production with demand in a dynamic pricing environment.
Several factors will be important to watch in the coming quarters. Polymer and olefin prices remain a central swing factor, with U.S. domestic polyethylene prices having risen in September and additional industry price increases announced for October and November. However, rising feedstock costs could partially offset those gains. The strength of oxyfuels margins and global supply conditions in the Intermediates & Derivatives segment will also be closely monitored.
On the cost side, investors should track progress on the $500 million Cash Improvement Plan and the company's workforce reductions, which have already reduced headcount by roughly 18% compared with the beginning of last year. With an investment-grade balance sheet, $3.2 billion in cash, and $7.7 billion in liquidity, LyondellBasell retains flexibility to fund its sustaining capital program, pursue selective growth, and maintain shareholder returns across the cycle.
Enhancing My Research Process
In my analysis of chemical sector names, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter opportunities by fundamentals, technical patterns, and AI-driven signals. It helps surface comparable ideas efficiently without replacing deeper fundamental work, and I find it particularly useful when evaluating how one stock stacks up against peers on volatility or performance metrics.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
LYB sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for LYB moved below the 200-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 15 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LYB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
LYB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LYB as a result. In 63 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LYB just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where LYB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
LYB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LYB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +1.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LYB advanced for three days, in 184 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 135 of 203 cases where LYB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 29 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.078) is normal, around the industry mean (2.431). P/E Ratio (-61.286) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-18.994). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.526) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LYB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LYB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of petrochemicals
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty