MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) is a U.S.-listed analog semiconductor company serving data center, telecommunications, and industrial and defense markets. Across the 16 analyst price targets reviewed, the approximate low-to-high range runs from $300 to $475. The arithmetic mean of those targets works out to roughly $395, which is the central target used here.
Views are unusually spread out. Bullish firms cluster near the top of the range — Evercore ISI has raised its target to $475, while Stifel, Barclays, Jefferies, and Northland sit at $450 — citing record bookings and surging data center and defense demand. More cautious names are far lower: Susquehanna maintains a Hold with a $300 target, and J.P. Morgan holds a neutral stance near $345. In September 2026, BMO Capital upgraded the shares to Outperform with a $335 target, noting that the stock's forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) had compressed from the high 50s to roughly 29. This wide band means the average is a useful benchmark, not a guarantee.
With shares near $263, the move to $395 represents about 50% upside — by any standard a very large move that would require both stronger fundamentals and re-expanded valuation. The path would likely depend on sustained data center revenue growth, continued margin improvement, and investor willingness to pay a premium multiple again. The company recently reported a beat-and-raise quarter, with fiscal Q3 revenue of about $342 million (up roughly 36% year over year), record backlog, and a record book-to-bill ratio. Still, a 50% advance from here is not a small hurdle.
MACOM's growth is concentrated in AI-driven demand. Data center revenue rose about 36% year over year in the recent quarter, and BMO projects data center segment growth accelerating toward roughly 70% in fiscal 2026. Industrial and defense revenue grew about 22%, supported by expanding defense budgets and emerging LEO (low Earth orbit) satellite programs. Gross margin is approaching 60%, creating operating leverage as revenue scales. If hyperscaler spending on optical and high-speed connectivity remains robust and defense/SATCOM orders keep rising, earnings estimates could support higher targets.
Valuation is the central concern. On trailing earnings, the stock trades at a P/E well above the broad market, and it remains sensitive to any cooling in AI infrastructure spending. Shares have already fallen more than 30% from their May 2026 record high of about $419, showing how quickly sentiment can shift. Risks include a slowdown in data center capital expenditure, weaker-than-expected guidance, semiconductor sector rotation, competitive pressure in optical connectivity, and execution risk in ramping new products. Insider selling activity has also been noted by analysts.
The stock's 52-week range runs from about $133 to $419, with the record high near $418.90 acting as a distant resistance level well above the $395 target. Near term, the stock sits below its 50-day (about $284) and 200-day (about $281) moving averages, indicating a corrective trend after the mid-2026 peak. Recent support has formed around the $254–$257 area, and the round-number $300 level may act as a psychological hurdle on any recovery toward the target.
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month horizon, though individual firms vary and some targets may be reviewed sooner after earnings. Investors should watch the next quarterly report (estimated around early November 2026), including guidance, data center book-to-bill trends, and gross margin. Also relevant are analyst rating and target revisions, hyperscaler capital expenditure commentary, defense and satellite program awards, and broader interest-rate and semiconductor sentiment.
Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals use artificial intelligence to continuously monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on changing market conditions, technical behavior, and AI-driven analysis. Traders can use the tool to discover new opportunities, monitor existing positions, and spot shifting trends more efficiently than manual scanning allows. For those following MACOM or the broader semiconductor space, these signals can help flag momentum changes as they develop.
The $395 central target is a calculated average of verified analyst targets spanning $300 to $475, not a forecast of where the stock will trade. From about $263, reaching it would require roughly 50% appreciation — a very large move that hinges on continued AI data center and defense strength, margin expansion, and a rebound in the valuation multiple. Bullish analysts emphasize record bookings and accelerating growth; cautious analysts point to a rich valuation and a stock already well off its highs. The next earnings report, guidance, and analyst revisions will be the key inputs for determining whether the stock can close that gap.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with SMTC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then SMTC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | -5.21% | ||
| SMTC - MTSI | 79% Closely correlated | -3.93% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 78% Closely correlated | -6.52% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -3.04% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -4.83% | ||
| TSEM - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -6.70% | ||
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