Can NGL Energy Partners (NGL) Reach $28?

Key Takeaways

• The central question is whether NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL), a master limited partnership (MLP) in the energy midstream sector, can reach a $28 stock price target — the consensus analyst objective and a roughly 67% premium to its recent trading range near $16–$17.
• The strongest bullish factor is the partnership's accelerating pivot toward produced-water handling, where disposal volumes and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) are growing at a double-digit pace.
• The biggest obstacles are a trailing net loss, elevated leverage, and sensitivity to energy prices in its legacy crude oil and liquids logistics segments.
• Key technical levels include the 52-week high near $18.80–$18.93 as immediate resistance, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $16 and $14.50 acting as nearby support.
• Overall, $28 is an ambitious but not unreasonable objective — achievable only if the water solutions business keeps compounding and the partnership sustains its deleveraging progress.

Why Investors Are Watching the $28 Level

NGL Energy Partners has been one of the more dramatic turnaround stories in the midstream space. After trading near a 52-week low of roughly $4–$5, the units have surged more than 400% to the upper teens, and Wall Street's published targets now cluster around $28. MarketWatch data shows an average analyst price target of $28 with an "Overweight" rating, while Texas Capital Securities maintained a Buy rating and raised its target as high as $31. The $28 level therefore sits squarely within the prevailing analyst consensus, making it a natural focal point for investors asking how much further the rally can run.

Company Overview

NGL Energy Partners is a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based MLP — a publicly traded partnership structure that generally passes income through to unitholders — operating three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The business handles and disposes of produced water generated during energy production, transports crude oil, and markets natural gas liquids and refined products. In recent quarters, management has emphasized a strategic transformation into a water-focused midstream platform, and that shift has become the primary engine of the company's improving fundamentals.

Current Market Position

The units recently traded near $16, with a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion and a 52-week range spanning from about $4.88 to $18.80. Notably, the partnership posted a new 52-week high above $18.90 in mid-August before pulling back. Despite the strong price appreciation, NGL carries no meaningful dividend and has reported a trailing net loss, leaving the story dependent on continued operational momentum rather than income yield.

What Could Drive the Next Leg Higher

The most compelling argument for a move toward $28 rests on the Water Solutions segment. Management reported record water volumes, with Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA rising about 16.5% year over year on physical disposal rates exceeding 3 million barrels per day. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations grew roughly 9% year over year, and the partnership reaffirmed full-year EBITDA guidance of $650–$660 million while projecting that figure would exceed $700 million in the following fiscal year.

Capital allocation is also improving. NGL has been redeeming preferred units, repurchasing roughly 7% of its outstanding common units, and reducing leverage toward the low 4.0x range. Continued execution on these fronts could compress the valuation discount and support a higher unit price.

What Could Prevent the Move

Several risks stand between the current price and $28. First, the Crude Oil Logistics and Liquids Logistics segments have been a drag, with EBITDA declining on lower oil prices and reduced committed producer volumes. Second, the partnership still reports a negative net income and negative return on equity, meaning the investment case is not yet supported by bottom-line profitability. Third, as an energy midstream business, NGL remains exposed to commodity price swings, weather-related volume variability, and the broader macroeconomic cycle.

Analyst Price Targets

Consensus views are constructive but concentrated. MarketWatch reports an average target of $28 based on two ratings, while Finviz similarly shows a $28 target. Texas Capital Securities has been more aggressive, raising its target to $31 while maintaining a Buy rating. Research firms including Zacks upgraded the stock to a "strong buy," and Wall Street Zen moved to a "buy." These targets imply that reaching $28 would essentially require NGL to close the entire gap to the consensus objective — a demanding but not unrealistic proposition if operational momentum continues.

Technical Levels That Matter

From a technical standpoint, the most immediate obstacle is the 52-week high near $18.80–$18.93. A sustained breakout above that zone would clear a key supply area and open the door to the next leg higher. On the downside, the 50-day moving average near $16 and the 200-day moving average near $14.50 represent the nearest support levels; a loss of those would likely signal that the rally is losing momentum. The round-number levels of $20 and $25 would also act as psychological checkpoints on any path toward $28.

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Final Assessment

Can NGL Energy Partners reach $28? The objective is ambitious but grounded in genuine operational progress rather than speculation. The strongest supports are the accelerating Water Solutions segment, growing adjusted EBITDA, and disciplined capital allocation that is reducing leverage and unit count. The primary risks are continued losses in the legacy logistics segments, a still-negative bottom line, and the stock's dependence on sustained commodity-driven volumes.

Investors should monitor water disposal volumes, progress toward the $700 million EBITDA target, further leverage reduction, and whether the units can break decisively above the 52-week high near $19. A move toward $28 appears achievable over time, but it would likely require consistent execution rather than a single catalyst.

Disclaimer

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