Firefly Aerospace is covered by a broad analyst bench, with aggregators reporting roughly 11 analysts and a consensus rating of Buy or Moderate Buy. The average analyst price target reported by third-party services sits in the mid-to-high $30s, generally between about $36 and $38. For this analysis, six individually attributable targets were verified: KeyBanc at $35 (Overweight, trimmed from $50 in early November 2026), Goldman Sachs at $32 (Hold), Barclays at $34 (Hold, initiated in October 2026), Morgan Stanley at $37 (Hold), Roth MKM at $45 (Buy), and B. Riley at $40 (Buy, lowered from $50).
The arithmetic mean of those six targets is roughly $37.17, rounded to a central $37. The spread of $32 to $45 is unusually wide and signals a genuine debate: bullish analysts emphasize contract momentum and long-term revenue visibility, while more cautious analysts weigh near-term losses, valuation, and production execution risk against the company's growth narrative.
Firefly Aerospace shares closed at $24.31 on November 9, 2026, after a sharp two-day rally of more than 50% off a 52-week low of $14.45 set days earlier. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of $62.17, reached in May 2026. Reaching the $37 central target implies roughly 52% upside, a substantial climb that would still leave shares far short of their prior peak.
The company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $287 million, up roughly 179% year over year, but it remains unprofitable, with a GAAP net loss of $92.3 million in its most recent quarter and a negative P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio. A path toward $37 would likely require sustained contract execution, continued revenue scaling, and progress toward positive margins and EBITDA.
The shares recently recovered above the $20 psychological level and moved back above their 20-day and 60-day moving averages, a constructive shift after testing the $14.45 low. Overhead, the $62.17 record high stands as a distant longer-term reference, while intermediate resistance sits near the mid-$30s zone that aligns with much of the analyst range. A sustained move toward $37 would require holding above the $20 area, which now acts as a nearby support level.
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms may use different assumptions. Investors tracking the path toward the central target should monitor quarterly earnings and guidance, progress and margin trends on the AST SpaceMobile engine contract, further NASA and defense awards, analyst target revisions, and broader interest-rate and risk sentiment that affects high-growth, early-stage space companies.
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The $37 central target for Firefly Aerospace represents a roughly 52% move above the latest close and is drawn from the mean of six verified analyst price targets spanning $32 to $45. Support stems from major contract wins, rapid revenue growth, and a sizable backlog, while the principal obstacles are continued losses, heavy cash burn, and unproven production scale-up. The wide target range underscores genuine disagreement about how richly to value a fast-growing but still-unprofitable space and defense company. Whether shares approach $37 will likely depend on execution milestones, margin progress, and the durability of recently announced commercial and government awards rather than on any single forecast.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FLY has been closely correlated with RKLB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FLY jumps, then RKLB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLY | 100% | -2.51% | ||
| RKLB - FLY | 77% Closely correlated | +6.54% | ||
| LUNR - FLY | 72% Closely correlated | -1.91% | ||
| RDW - FLY | 71% Closely correlated | -0.25% | ||
| VOYG - FLY | 65% Loosely correlated | +4.01% | ||
| PL - FLY | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.70% | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FLY | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| FLY | 100% | -2.51% |
| FLY (5 stocks) | 81% Closely correlated | +5.26% |
| Aerospace & Defense (87 stocks) | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.87% |
| europe (168 stocks) | 30% Poorly correlated | +1.10% |
| leasing financing (45 stocks) | 9% Poorly correlated | +1.44% |
| aircraft (21 stocks) | 9% Poorly correlated | +0.95% |
More | ||