Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) exhibits a clear long-term uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows within a rising channel. Over the past quarter, shares have surged approximately 25% year-to-date, reflecting sustained bullish momentum amid sector strength. The price has recently broken out from a well-defined consolidation base, holding above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, which reinforces the uptrend structure. Short-term pullbacks have found support at key zones like 361-366, preventing any structural breakdown.
All major moving averages align bullishly for TSM. The 5-day SMA stands at 403.55, 20-day at 397.86, 50-day at 381.86, 100-day at 375.61, and 200-day at 355.97, with the current price significantly above each. This golden cross configuration, including the 10-day MA crossing above the 50-day earlier in April, signals continued trend strength. Exponential moving averages further support this, with the 50-day EMA at 387.15 providing dynamic support.
Momentum remains positive, with RSI(14) at 66.39 indicating buy territory without entering overbought extremes. MACD(12,26) at 6.81 shows a bullish crossover, with the histogram expanding upward. Stochastic indicators are elevated, with %K around 77 in overbought zones across multiple periods, suggesting strong buying pressure but potential for minor consolidation. Overall, oscillators lean buy, supporting the prevailing uptrend.
Traders eye 390 as pivotal support after the recent breakout above this former resistance level. Additional supports cluster at 381.3, 368.87, and 365-370 demand zones. Pivot points highlight near-term S1 at 402.12 and R1 at 403.75, with R3 at 405.38 acting as overhead resistance near recent highs around 392-405. A hold above 390 favors bulls, while breaches could test lower supports.
Trading volume has exceeded 20-day averages of around 13-14 million shares, accompanying the recent rally and breakout. Elevated volatility, with 20-day historic volatility near 43%, underscores the dynamic price swings, yet directional bias remains upward with positive +DI dominating.
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Looking ahead, TSM traders monitor a hold above 390 for uptrend continuation toward 405 resistance and beyond. A dip testing 381 or 370 supports could offer buying opportunities if volume sustains. Watch RSI for divergence, MACD histogram strength, and Stochastic for overbought relief. Breakouts above pivots signal acceleration, while volume confirmation remains essential for any directional moves.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -2.24% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.23% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.78% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +3.91% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +2.19% | ||
| CAMT - TSM | 66% Closely correlated | -2.17% | ||
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