On the surface, Q3 2026 earnings season is going well. About 82% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat expectations, and the index is on track for earnings growth of roughly 30% from a year ago. That is an unusual figure in a period that is not a recovery from a recession. It reflects both AI-driven capital spending and an oil-price windfall.
Under the surface, the mood has changed. Last week the market started punishing AI spenders instead of rewarding them. Meta fell more than 9% for the week after reporting its first-ever negative free cash flow, and its credit default swap spreads reached record levels. Lam Research's merely in-line outlook set off a sector-wide selloff in chip equipment, and memory names like Sandisk and Seagate fell with it. The question for investors is no longer whether AI demand is real. It is how long the payback will take and how the buildout will be financed. Some analysts expect this week's hyperscalers to raise combined capex by as much as $100 billion.
Macro risk is just as high. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference Wednesday afternoon, between Alphabet's and Microsoft's reports. The Fed is widely expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00% after a weak September jobs report, even though inflation has moved further from target as gasoline and diesel prices rise. On Thursday morning, core PCE is expected at 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0%. Thursday also brings the first estimate of Q3 GDP, all before the U.S. open on the day Lilly, Mastercard, Merck, Caterpillar and Linde (LIN) report.
The third major theme is energy. The Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent averaging about $97 a barrel in Q3, and oil briefly topped $112 last week. European refining margins nearly quadrupled from a year ago. That is good news for the oil majors and bad news for fuel-sensitive businesses such as United Parcel Service (UPS), the airline customers of Boeing (BA), and consumer-facing companies.
| Day | Before the Open / Morning | After the Close |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 26 | Verizon (VZ) | |
| Tue, Oct 27 | HSBC (HSBC), Novartis (NVS), Coca-Cola (KO), S&P Global (SPGI), Corning (GLW), United Parcel Service (UPS), Boeing (BA) | |
| Wed, Oct 28 | UBS (UBS), Banco Santander (SAN), GE Vernova (GEV), Amphenol (APH) | Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), KLA (KLAC), ServiceNow (NOW), Fortinet (FTNT), T-Mobile US (TMUS) |
| Thu, Oct 29 | Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK), Caterpillar (CAT), Linde (LIN) | Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Gilead (GILD), Sandisk (SNDK), Starbucks (SBUX) |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), AstraZeneca (AZN), BP (BP) | — |
Note: Welltower and Nucor release after Monday's close and hold their calls Tuesday morning. T-Mobile publishes results at about 4:05 p.m. ET Wednesday, with its call at 4:30 p.m. ET. European companies (HSBC, Novartis, UBS, Santander, Shell, TotalEnergies, AstraZeneca, BP) publish during their local morning hours, before the U.S. open.
| Company | Ticker | Period | Consensus EPS | Consensus Revenue | Street View* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verizon | Q3 2026 | $1.27 | $34.77B | Buy | |
| Welltower | Q3 2026 | $1.64 (norm. FFO) | $3.64B | Strong Buy | |
| Cadence Design Systems | Q3 2026 | $2.04 | $1.61B | Strong Buy | |
| Nucor | Q3 2026 | $5.71 | $10.84B | Buy | |
| Visa | FQ4 2026 | $3.43 | $12.09B | Strong Buy | |
| Coca-Cola | Q3 2026 | $0.87 | $12.92B | Strong Buy | |
| HSBC Holdings | Q3 2026 | $2.13 (per ADS) | $18.98B | — | |
| Novartis | Q3 2026 | $2.25 (core) | $14.53B | Hold | |
| Boeing | Q3 2026 | -$0.21 (core) | $23.95B | Strong Buy | |
| Seagate Technology | FQ1 2027 | $7.44 | $4.14B | Strong Buy | |
| S&P Global | Q3 2026 | $4.43 | $3.64B | Strong Buy | |
| Corning | Q3 2026 | $0.89 (core) | $5.03B | Buy | |
| Robinhood Markets | Q3 2026 | $0.56 | $1.44B | Strong Buy | |
| United Parcel Service | Q3 2026 | $1.63 | $22.27B | Buy | |
| Alphabet | Q3 2026 | $2.94–$3.03 | $127.91B | Strong Buy | |
| Microsoft | FQ1 2027 | $4.71 | $90.63B | Strong Buy | |
| GE Vernova | Q3 2026 | $4.03 | $11.99B | Strong Buy | |
| KLA Corp. | FQ1 2027 | $1.18 | $4.04B | Buy | |
| Banco Santander | Q3 2026 | $0.26 | $18.14B | — | |
| Amphenol | Q3 2026 | $0.73 | $9.49B | Strong Buy | |
| ServiceNow | Q3 2026 | $1.02 | $4.09B | Strong Buy | |
| T-Mobile US | Q3 2026 | $2.86 | $23.15B | Strong Buy | |
| UBS Group | Q3 2026 | $0.91 | $13.07B | — | |
| Fortinet | Q3 2026 | $0.86 | $2.06B | Hold | |
| Amazon | Q3 2026 | $2.01 | $202.16B | Strong Buy | |
| Eli Lilly | Q3 2026 | $5.38–$7.11** | $22.58B | Strong Buy | |
| Mastercard | Q3 2026 | $5.14 | $9.66B | Strong Buy | |
| Intel | Q3 2026 | $0.39 | $16.50B | Hold | |
| Merck & Co. | Q3 2026 | $2.12 | $17.31B | Strong Buy | |
| Caterpillar | Q3 2026 | $7.12 | $20.76B | Buy | |
| Shell | Q3 2026 | $3.54 (per ADS) | $93.25B | Buy | |
| Linde | Q3 2026 | $4.52 | $9.16B | Strong Buy | |
| TotalEnergies | Q3 2026 | $4.11 | $55.39B | Hold | |
| Gilead Sciences | Q3 2026 | $2.17 | $7.81B | Buy | |
| Sandisk | FQ1 2027 | $46.23 | $10.65B | Strong Buy | |
| Starbucks | FQ4 2026 | $0.73 | $9.23B | Buy | |
| Exxon Mobil | Q3 2026 | $3.90 | $105.43B | Buy | |
| AbbVie | Q3 2026 | $3.74–$3.79 | $17.32B | Strong Buy | |
| Chevron | Q3 2026 | $4.78 | $61.33B | Buy | |
| AstraZeneca | Q3 2026 | $2.60 (core) | $16.01B | — | |
| BP | Q3 2026 | $2.66 (per ADS) | $63.14B | Buy |
*Street View reflects the consensus of recent analyst ratings we track. "—" means our tracked coverage is too thin for a meaningful consensus. **Lilly's EPS estimates vary widely depending on how providers treat acquired IPR&D charges.
The three hyperscalers reporting this week are expected to spend well over half a trillion dollars on capex in 2026. Their results will largely decide whether October's AI correction deepens or reverses. Cloud growth has accelerated at all three, so demand is not the debate. The debate is free cash flow, depreciation, financing needs and how long the payback will take.
Microsoft (MSFT) reports its September quarter, the first of fiscal 2027. The stock is the strongest of the three going in: at $524.51 it sits just below its 52-week high of $553.72, after jumping more than 15% the day after its fiscal Q4 report in July. That report showed EPS of $4.74 on revenue of $90.01 billion, well ahead of the $4.21 and $87.62 billion consensus. EPS was helped by a $3.2 billion gain on the company's Anthropic stake.
Expectations: Consensus calls for EPS of $4.71 on revenue of $90.63 billion, compared with $4.13 and $77.67 billion a year ago. That implies roughly 14% EPS growth and almost 17% revenue growth.
What matters: Azure is the key number. Management guided to about 45% constant-currency growth, faster than the prior quarter's 43%, and this is the first quarter Microsoft reports Azure revenue in dollars under its new segment structure. Commercial remaining performance obligations rose 84% to $678 billion last quarter, which shows strong demand visibility. The concern is spending: capex is guided above $50 billion for the quarter, compared with about $19 billion a year earlier. Microsoft Cloud gross margin has slipped from 68% to 65% over four quarters, and free cash flow fell 23% year over year last quarter. The Street also models fiscal Q2 at about $4.84 EPS on $95.65 billion in revenue, so guidance will matter as much as the quarter itself.
Analysts: Every rating in our tracked sample is bullish (Strong Buy), with an average price target of $616.95.
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Alphabet (GOOGL) goes in under pressure. The stock fell more than 5% last week to $320.21, well below its 52-week high of $408.61. Q2 was strong on growth: revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion, and Google Cloud revenue jumped 82% to $24.8 billion with a 35.6% operating margin and a $514 billion backlog. Headline Q2 EPS of $9.11 was inflated by gains on equity investments. The concern was cash: Q2 capex of $44.9 billion exceeded operating cash flow, leaving free cash flow at negative $5.9 billion, the first negative reading in Alphabet's public history. Management also raised 2026 capex guidance to $195–$205 billion and paused buybacks.
Expectations: Consensus EPS is $2.94–$3.03 on revenue of $127.91 billion, about 25% year-over-year growth. Alphabet gives no quarterly guidance, so the Street consensus is the only benchmark.
What matters: Cloud revenue near $29 billion, with growth close to 80%, would show the spending is turning into sales. Search (17% growth in Q2) faces tougher comparisons, and YouTube ads grew 13%. Most important will be the capex outlook for 2027, any update on buybacks, and how much depreciation will weigh on margins.
Analysts: Strong Buy, with an average price target of $424.24, about 32% above the current price.
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Amazon (AMZN) rallied about 15% after its July report and now trades at $248.00. In Q2, revenue of $200.6 billion and operating income of $27.5 billion beat both guidance and consensus. AWS grew 37% to $42.2 billion, its fastest pace in 18 quarters, with a 39.4% margin. That margin included $551 million of one-time energy-contract gains. Advertising grew 26% to $19.8 billion.
Expectations: Management guided to Q3 net sales of $197–$202 billion and operating income of $22.5–$26.5 billion, compared with $17.4 billion a year ago. Consensus calls for EPS of $2.01 on revenue of $202.16 billion, at the top of the guidance range.
What matters: The key number is whether AWS growth holds in the mid-to-high 30s. Management has said capacity, not demand, is the limit: power will stay tight through 2027 against a backlog of about $496 billion. An underlying AWS margin near 38% would show that profitability holds up without one-time gains. Also watch the 2026 capex plan, already raised to about $220 billion, and the holiday-quarter outlook.
Analysts: Strong Buy (14 of 15 tracked ratings bullish), with an average price target of $335.80.
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No group goes into this week more bruised. Semis are down more than 15% in October and memory names more than 20%, hit by worries about AI financing (including concerns over CoreWeave's balance sheet) and an underwhelming outlook from Lam Research. For many of these stocks, much of the bad news may already be priced in. That raises the bar for bears as well as bulls.
Cadence (CDNS) is the first major tech report of the week. Management guided to Q3 revenue of $1.595–$1.625 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.01–$2.07. Consensus is $2.04 EPS on $1.61 billion in revenue, about 20% above last year's $1.34 billion. In Q2, Cadence earned $2.11 per share against a $2.05 estimate, revenue grew 24.2% to $1.58 billion, the IP business grew about 40%, and backlog reached a record $8.1 billion. The guided Q3 non-GAAP operating margin of 43.5%–44.5%, against 47.6% a year ago, is the main point of debate. Investors will also want evidence that Cadence's agentic AI design tools are producing revenue. Shares trade at $316.49. The rating is Strong Buy with an average target of $412.33.
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Seagate (STX) guided to revenue of about $4.1 billion (±$100 million) and non-GAAP EPS of $7.10–$7.50. Consensus sits near the top of that range at $7.44 EPS on $4.14 billion. In fiscal Q4, the company earned $5.71 against a $5.10 estimate on revenue of $3.63 billion. Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34%, and free cash flow reached $3.1 billion. Long-term supply agreements cover most nearline capacity through calendar 2028, which gives unusual visibility for a hard-drive maker. The stock has fallen sharply to $630.49 from a 52-week high of $1,145 as memory stocks sold off. Pricing per terabyte, gross margin and the timing of new capacity are the key metrics. Options imply a move of roughly ±8%. The rating is Strong Buy with an average target of $1,127.50.
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Amphenol (APH) has become one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI data-center buildouts. In Q2, sales rose 55% to $8.76 billion against $8.26 billion expected. Orders hit a record $10.7 billion (a 1.23 book-to-bill), and IT datacom, now 43% of sales, grew 89%. Guidance calls for Q3 sales of $9.3–$9.4 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.70–$0.71 (post-split). Consensus is $0.73 on $9.49 billion, roughly 50% growth. Investors will look at the integration of CommScope's CCS business, margins and any change in customer tone on AI spending. The stock fell to $74.09 in last week's AI selloff, against a 52-week high of $89.93. Options price a move of about ±10%. The rating is Strong Buy with an average target of $103.30.
Corning (GLW) guided to Q3 core EPS of $0.85–$0.89 on core sales of $4.9–$5.0 billion. Consensus is at the top of the range: $0.89 EPS on $5.03 billion. Optical Communications, which grew 32% to $2.07 billion in Q2 on AI data-center fiber demand, is the key segment. Analysts expect about $2.23 billion this quarter. Revenue is the line to watch. In Q2, core EPS beat ($0.78 vs. $0.76), but revenue of $4.5 billion missed the $4.63 billion estimate and the stock fell 12% the next day. Shares have fallen on each of the last three earnings days and now trade at $123.69, less than half their 52-week high of $271.78. Solar profitability after a wafer facility shutdown, and progress on the Springboard growth plan, are also in focus. The rating is Buy with an average target of $187.22.
KLA (KLAC) guided to revenue of $4.0 billion (±$200 million) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 (±$0.10). Consensus is $1.18 on $4.04 billion. Last quarter's $1.05 EPS beat the $1.00 estimate, and revenue rose 15.2% to $3.66 billion, but the stock still fell nearly 11% the next day. Shares dropped about 9% on October 22 in the chip-equipment selloff and now trade at $145.61. The industry backdrop is better than the stock's performance suggests: Lam Research just raised its calendar 2026 wafer fab equipment estimate to the mid-$150 billion range, with a preliminary 2027 view above $200 billion. KLA expects advanced packaging process-control revenue of about $1.1 billion in 2026, up more than 70%. Gross margin pressure from rising memory costs and supply constraints on optical components are the risks. The rating is Buy with an average target of $242.29.
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Intel (INTC) has been one of 2026's biggest turnaround stories. Shares have more than doubled year to date, but at $86.96 they are about 36% below the June 30 high of $142.35. Q2 was strong: EPS of $0.42 against a $0.21 estimate, revenue up 25% to $16.13 billion against $14.43 billion expected, and Data Center & AI revenue up 59% to $6.3 billion. Guidance calls for Q3 revenue of $15.8–$16.8 billion, EPS of $0.38 and a 42% non-GAAP gross margin. Consensus is $0.39 EPS on $16.50 billion, about 20% growth.
What matters: Management said demand exceeds supply, so the quarter depends on how much extra output arrived late in Q3. Foundry milestones are the long-term story: 18A output ran 25% above target last quarter, and 14A risk production is targeted for the second half of 2027. Memory-cost pressure on PC demand is a risk for the Q4 outlook. Analysts are cautious: the consensus is Hold (3 bullish, 11 neutral), with an average target of $110.43. JPMorgan recently upgraded to Neutral.
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Sandisk (SNDK) has become one of the market's most extreme earnings stories as NAND pricing has soared. Management guided to fiscal Q1 revenue of $10.3–$10.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $44–$46. Consensus is $46.23 EPS on $10.65 billion in revenue, compared with $2.3 billion and $1.22 a year ago. Last quarter, the company earned $39.25 per share against $34.24 expected on $8.97 billion in revenue, yet the stock fell nearly 7% because the outlook did not beat elevated expectations. Multi-year agreements with at least $93.9 billion in minimum contractual revenue and a $14 billion buyback support the bull case. At $1,238.03, the stock is about 47% below its 52-week high. Peer Western Digital (WDC) reported revenue up 55% last week and guided higher. Options imply about a ±9% move. The rating is Strong Buy, with an average target of $2,355.
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Software, and cybersecurity in particular, is one of the few tech groups set to finish October with gains, as investors move from AI hardware toward AI applications.
ServiceNow (NOW) is expected to post EPS of $1.02 on revenue of $4.09 billion, about 20% growth. Subscription revenue is expected near $3.98 billion and current RPO near $13.56 billion. The company beat on revenue in each of its last five quarters, but the stock fell after each of its last three reports, including a drop of almost 18% in April. AI monetization (AI contract value and adoption of AI-native product tiers) and the security strategy after the Armis (about $7.75 billion) and Veza acquisitions are the key topics. Margin effects from those deals against a non-GAAP operating margin guide of about 31% will also get attention. Shares trade at $158.96. The rating is Strong Buy (18 of 19 bullish), with an average target of $168.16.
Fortinet (FTNT) guided Q3 EPS to $0.83–$0.87. Consensus is $0.86 on $2.06 billion in revenue (+19.5%). Q2 was a clear beat: EPS of $0.90 against $0.75 expected and revenue up 25.6% to $2.05 billion. Billings (estimated near $2.30 billion), product revenue growth from the firewall refresh cycle, and the full-year EPS guide of $3.41–$3.47 are the key items. Earnings-day moves are typically large: the stock gained 20% after Q1, and options price about ±10% this time. Fortinet is the most divided name on Wall Street this week. The consensus is Hold, with 3 bullish, 10 neutral and 3 bearish ratings. The average target of $176.31 sits below the $179.99 share price, after a 4% gain on Friday.
Visa (V) closes out fiscal 2026 with consensus EPS of $3.43 on net revenue of $12.09 billion, about 15% and 13% above last year's $2.98 and $10.72 billion. In fiscal Q3, Visa earned $3.32 against $3.23 expected on $11.63 billion in revenue (+14.4%). Quarterly payments volume topped $4 trillion for the first time, and value-added services grew 34% in constant dollars. Costs are rising faster, though: non-GAAP operating expenses rose 17%, client incentives rose 18%, and Visa took a $563 million severance charge. Management guided to net revenue growth at the high end of low double digits and EPS growth at the low end of mid-teens.
What matters: Visa usually announces its annual dividend increase with this report (last year's raise was 14%, to $0.67). Its first fiscal 2027 outlook will show the margin effect of lower small-merchant interchange rates starting this month. Investors also want concrete numbers on its stablecoin platform. Shares trade at $407.92, near the 52-week high of $414.60. Every tracked rating is bullish (Strong Buy), with an average target of $437.33.
Mastercard (MA) is expected to report EPS of $5.14 on $9.66 billion in revenue, compared with $4.38 and $8.60 billion a year ago. Q2 adjusted EPS of $5.04 beat the $4.77 estimate. Cross-border volume grew 12%, worldwide gross dollar volume rose 8% in local currency, and value-added services and solutions revenue rose 18%. Management guided Q3 net revenue growth to the high end of the low-double-digit range (currency-neutral, excluding acquisitions). Rebates and incentives, operating expense growth, and the pending BVNK acquisition are other topics. The stock is at $623.60, close to a record. The rating is Strong Buy (13 of 13 bullish), with an average target of $681.46.
Robinhood (HOOD) is expected to earn $0.56 per share on $1.44 billion in revenue. Q2 was strong on profits, with EPS of $0.62 against $0.43 expected and revenue up 32.5% to $1.31 billion. The weak spot is crypto: analysts expect crypto revenue around $136 million, down about 49% from a year ago and a fourth straight quarterly decline. Options and net interest revenue have to make up the gap. Funded customers (about 28.2 million expected), platform assets (about $385.7 billion), net deposits, and newer products such as event contracts and AI trading tools are the metrics to watch. The stock is at $95.07, far below its 52-week high of $150.47, and options imply about a ±9% move. The rating is Strong Buy, with an average target of $137.85.
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S&P Global (SPGI) reports on a smaller revenue base after separating its Mobility business. Consensus calls for EPS of $4.43 on revenue of $3.64 billion, compared with $4.73 and $3.89 billion on last year's reported basis. Ratings revenue (about $1.25 billion expected) is the swing factor after Moody's (MCO) reported softer debt issuance and held its full-year guidance last week. Indices (about $547 million, +18%) should benefit from ETF inflows. The stock fell 3.5% after Q2 despite a $4.83 EPS beat, so forward guidance will drive the reaction. Shares trade at $450.31. The rating is Strong Buy (11 of 11), with an average target of $518.18.
The European banks reporting this week benefit from a steeper yield curve and strong wealth-management flows. Investors will focus on buybacks, capital ratios and net interest income.
HSBC (HSBC) is expected to report EPS of about $2.13 per ADS on revenue of $18.98 billion. Brokers' consensus puts pre-tax profit near $9.7 billion, up about 33% year over year against a prior-year quarter hit by notable items. In Q2, pre-tax profit rose 60% to $10.1 billion, first-half return on tangible equity reached 18.2%, and management raised its 2026 banking NII guidance to at least $46 billion. Capital return is the main question. The CET1 ratio slipped to 14.1% after the Hang Seng Bank privatisation, and Goldman Sachs expects the quarterly buyback to be cut to $500 million from $1 billion. Wealth flows from Asia are expected to remain strong. ADS price: $90.68.
Banco Santander (SAN) is expected to report EPS of $0.26 on revenue of about $18.14 billion. Company-compiled consensus puts underlying attributable profit at €3.79 billion and net interest income at €11.93 billion. First-half 2026 profit was a record, and management reiterated 2026 net profit above 2025's €14.1 billion, excluding M&A. Integration costs and synergies from TSB in the UK, the pending Webster transaction in the U.S., cost of risk in Brazil and Argentina, and a CET1 ratio of 14.0% will set the tone for capital returns. Shares trade at $12.84.
UBS (UBS) is expected to earn $0.91 per share on $13.07 billion in revenue, compared with $0.76 and $12.76 billion a year ago. Q2 EPS of $0.87 slightly missed the $0.90 estimate, but the underlying trend is solid: Global Wealth Management attracted $36 billion in net new assets, invested assets reached $7.3 trillion, and Investment Bank revenue rose 31%. The Credit Suisse integration is due for completion by year-end, with cumulative gross cost savings of $12.6 billion against a target of about $13.5 billion. A CET1 ratio of 14.4%, a $3 billion buyback program and the debate over Switzerland's capital rules remain central to the investment case. Shares trade at $46.37.
Big pharma is attracting money as tech sells off. This week's group covers the market's biggest growth story (GLP-1 obesity drugs), the immunology leaders, and companies working through looming patent expirations.
Eli Lilly (LLY) is the largest healthcare stock in the world and trades near a record at $1,273.46. In Q2, EPS was $8.38 against $6.01 expected, and revenue rose 47.7% to $22.97 billion. Revenue consensus for Q3 is $22.58 billion. EPS estimates range widely, from $5.38 to about $7.11, depending on how acquired IPR&D charges are treated. Full-year guidance stands at $85–$87 billion in revenue and $35.50–$36.50 in EPS.
What matters: Combined tirzepatide sales are the focus: analysts expect close to $10 billion for Mounjaro and $5 billion for Zepbound. U.S. pricing trends, Medicare GLP-1 coverage, and the first full quarter of Foundayo, the oral GLP-1 approved in April (about $234 million expected), are also key. Pipeline updates on retatrutide and eloralintide could move the stock. The rating is Strong Buy (13 of 14), with an average target of $1,365. Options imply a move of about ±5.5%.
AbbVie (ABBV) is up about 25% year to date and trades at $285.64, near its 52-week high. Consensus calls for adjusted EPS of $3.74–$3.79 on $17.32 billion in revenue, slightly above the company's guide of about $17.2 billion. In Q2, AbbVie earned $3.65 on revenue of $16.99 billion (+10.2%). Skyrizi and Rinvoq remain the growth engines, although prescription growth is slowing slightly. Neuroscience (Vraylar, Ubrelvy, Qulipta) is growing at double-digit rates. Aesthetics is still weak but stabilizing. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance, recently updated to $13.76–$13.96 to reflect acquired IPR&D and the Apogee acquisition, is a key reference point. The rating is Strong Buy, with an average target of $292.
Merck (MRK) is expected to report EPS of $2.12 on $17.31 billion in revenue. The last two quarters show adjusted losses because of acquired pipeline charges: Q2 was a loss of $0.13 against an expected $0.26 loss, on revenue of $16.61 billion (+5.1%). Keytruda, at $8.37 billion, generated about half of Q2 sales, which is why the 2028 U.S. patent expiry dominates the investment case. Investors will want early 2027 commentary, signs of a Gardasil recovery (Q2: $1.17 billion), and progress on the subcutaneous Keytruda transition and recent acquisitions. Full-year sales guidance is $66.3–$67.3 billion. The stock trades at $145.27. The rating is Strong Buy, with an average target of $164.25.
Novartis (NVS) is expected to post core EPS of $2.25, flat year over year, on $14.53 billion in revenue. Q2 showed how generic erosion is weighing on the business: net sales grew just 1% in constant currency, with volume growth of 18 points offset by 14 points of generic competition. Core EPS of $2.41 still beat estimates. The growth brands are performing: Kisqali (+43%), Kesimpta (+32%), Scemblix (+89%), Pluvicto (+43%) and Leqvio (+59%). Analysts expect Kisqali sales of about $1.85 billion this quarter. Full-year guidance calls for low-single-digit sales growth and a low-single-digit decline in core operating income. Shares fell 3.3% on Friday to $151.12. The consensus is Hold, with an average target of $141.33.
AstraZeneca (AZN) is expected to report core EPS of $2.60 on $16.01 billion in revenue. First-half revenue rose 6% at constant exchange rates to $30.7 billion and core EPS rose 11% to $5.21. Q2 core EPS was $2.63. Full-year guidance calls for revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits and low-double-digit core EPS growth. Management has flagged a lower core gross margin and higher financing costs in the second half. Oncology growth (15% in Q2), China sales (down 13% in Q2) and data presented at ESMO, which runs through October 27, will shape the reaction. Progress toward the $80 billion 2030 revenue target remains the long-term story. Shares trade at $171.49.
Gilead (GILD) is expected to report EPS of $2.17 on $7.81 billion in revenue, compared with $2.47 and $7.77 billion a year ago. Q2 showed a loss of $6.75 per share because of a large acquired-IPR&D charge, but revenue of $7.80 billion beat the $7.40 billion estimate. The HIV franchise (Biktarvy, Descovy and the twice-yearly PrEP launch), Trodelvy's first-line triple-negative breast cancer launch, and the new oncology partnerships with Tubulis and Arcellx are the main drivers. Bloomberg options data imply a move of about ±4.6%. The stock is at $156.04, near its 52-week high. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $156.10, about where the stock already trades.
The oil majors report a quarter shaped by the Middle East conflict. Brent averaged about $97 a barrel (down from about $104 in Q2), while refining margins rose sharply, and LNG and gas trading benefited from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Most majors have already published trading updates, so the main questions are buybacks, Q4 margins and 2027 spending.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) is expected to report EPS of $3.90 on $105.43 billion in revenue, compared with $1.88 and $83.33 billion a year ago. Some estimates go as high as $4.10. Exxon's October 16 filing pointed to a roughly $4.5 billion earnings lift from refining margins compared with Q2. That is partly offset by a $1.3 billion upstream hit from lower liquids prices, about $2.5 billion of negative timing effects and about $0.7 billion of divestment gains. The company reported no volume losses from Middle East events. In Q2, Exxon earned $3.52, slightly below the $3.68 estimate. Permian growth, the Guyana fifth-vessel start-up expected in Q4, and 2027 capital plans are the things to watch. Shares hit a 52-week high at $183.21. The rating is Buy, but the average target of $175.60 sits below the share price.
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Chevron (CVX) is expected to post EPS of $4.78 on $61.33 billion in revenue, compared with $1.85 a year ago. In Q2, Chevron earned $6.06 per share against $5.80 expected on $67.2 billion in revenue. Worldwide production rose 20% to about 4.07 million boe/d with the Hess assets, including record U.S. output. Lower oil prices than in Q2 explain the expected sequential decline. Investors will focus on Hess synergies, Guyana and Permian volumes, cost cuts, and the pace of buybacks. The stock is at a 52-week high of $233.21. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $228.91.
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Shell (SHEL) is expected to report EPS of $3.54 per ADS on $93.25 billion in revenue, after beating in Q2 ($3.52 vs. $3.23). Its update note points to an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel, up from $24 in Q2, and Integrated Gas production of 740–780 kboe/d, which includes the ARC Resources acquisition completed September 2. On the negative side, chemicals margins fell, Marketing earnings will be lower, Rhine water levels cut refinery utilisation, and an outflow of about $2.5 billion for German emissions certificates will reduce cash flow. Buyback size and net debt after the ARC deal will drive the reaction. Shares are at a 52-week high of $108.18. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $112.88.
TotalEnergies (TTE) is expected to post EPS of $4.11 on $55.39 billion in revenue, a big step up from Q2's $2.68 (which missed the $2.96 estimate). Its trading statement explains why. The European refining margin marker averaged $33.2 a barrel, compared with $13.5 in Q2 and $8.4 a year ago. LNG prices rose 20% from the prior quarter. Refining & Chemicals cash flow should be about $2 billion higher than in Q2, and working capital should contribute about $3 billion. Production of 2.45–2.50 Mboe/d is ahead of plan despite a Middle East impact of about 5% of output. Shares trade at $92.78. The consensus is Hold, with an average target of $92.
BP (BP) is expected to report EPS of $2.66 per ADS on $63.14 billion in revenue, after a Q2 beat ($2.22 vs. $1.98). The trading statement points to $1.9–$2.1 billion of benefit from stronger refining margins and a much higher gas marketing and trading result. These are partly offset by a much weaker customers segment and lower throughput after the Gelsenkirchen divestment. Net debt is expected to drop to $13.5–$14.5 billion from $22.3 billion, a major improvement for a company under pressure to strengthen its balance sheet. Post-tax impairments of $3.0–$4.5 billion will weigh on reported profit. The results also set up BP's strategy update in New York on December 15. Shares are at a 52-week high of $51.32. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $52.76.
Caterpillar (CAT) is expected to report EPS of $7.12 on $20.76 billion in revenue, compared with $4.95 and $17.64 billion a year ago. Q2 was a record: revenue of $20.54 billion (+24%), adjusted EPS of $8.17 (+73%) against $6.25 expected, and a backlog of $72 billion, up 92% from a year ago. Power generation sales grew 72% on demand for data-center gensets and turbines, and management raised full-year guidance to revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens. Despite this, the stock has fallen to $687 from a 52-week high of $1,073.46 as the AI-infrastructure trade sold off. A strong backlog update could change sentiment. Options imply about a ±6% move. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $989.83.
GE Vernova (GEV) is expected to post EPS of $4.03 on $11.99 billion in revenue, compared with $1.64 and $9.97 billion a year ago. Q2 was mixed. EPS of $2.51 missed the $3.17 estimate and the stock fell almost 9%, but revenue of $11.10 billion beat. Orders rose 88% organically to $24.2 billion, and backlog reached a record $176 billion. Management raised 2026 guidance to $45.5–$46.5 billion in revenue and $11.5–$12.5 billion in free cash flow. Gas turbine slot reservations, pricing and data-center Electrification orders are key. Bank of America expects orders of about $21 billion, below the $22.2 billion consensus. Shares fell more than 10% last week to $815, against a 52-week high of $1,195.94. The rating is Strong Buy, with an average target of $1,247.73.
Boeing (BA) is expected to post a core loss of $0.21 per share on $23.95 billion in revenue. The year-ago quarter included a $4.9 billion 777X charge and a loss of $7.47, so the comparison is easy. Q2 revenue rose 8% to $24.56 billion, deliveries rose 14% to 171 aircraft, free cash flow turned positive at $631 million, and backlog reached a record $715 billion, although the core loss of $0.76 missed estimates. Management guided Q3 free cash flow to a positive "low hundreds of millions" despite a $700 million DOJ payment, and full-year free cash flow to $1–$3 billion. The 737 production rate is at 47 per month, moving toward 52. The FAA certified the 737-10 last week. A labor vote by engineers' union SPEEA is a near-term risk. Shares trade at $188.35. The rating is Strong Buy (10 of 11), with an average target of $268.91.
UPS (UPS) is expected to earn $1.63 per share on $22.27 billion in revenue. The year-ago $1.74 included a gain of about $0.30 from a sale-leaseback. This is the first full quarter after UPS cut its Amazon volume by more than half under its "Better, Not Bigger" strategy, so revenue per piece and the U.S. domestic margin (guided near 7%) are the key metrics. Management is targeting about $3 billion in 2026 savings. The full-year EPS target requires about $4.40 in the second half. With free cash flow of about $5.5 billion against about $5.4 billion of dividends, the 6.5% dividend yield is a central part of the investment case. Higher fuel costs add risk. Shares trade at $101.06. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $115.27.
Linde (LIN) guided Q3 EPS to $4.45–$4.55. Consensus is $4.52 on $9.16 billion in revenue. Linde has beaten estimates for seven straight quarters, though usually by small margins. Q2 EPS of $4.50 topped the $4.49 estimate on revenue of $9.29 billion (+9.3%). Volume trends, pricing, electronics and semiconductor demand, and the $8.1 billion project backlog are the main points. The full-year guide of $17.70–$17.90 is the benchmark. Shares trade at $508.83. Every tracked rating is bullish (Strong Buy), with an average target of $551.22.
Nucor (NUE) guided Q3 EPS to $5.55–$5.65 in September, below the consensus of $5.71 on $10.84 billion in revenue. Steel Mills and Steel Products should improve, but Raw Materials should weaken. In Q2, EPS of $4.84 beat the $4.57 estimate on revenue of $10.40 billion. Average selling prices (analysts estimate about $1,209 a ton), shipments, Q4 guidance and the ramp-up of the West Virginia sheet mill in early 2027 are the key items. Peer results were mixed: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) beat and Steel Dynamics (STLD) missed. Shares trade at $258.11. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $282.44.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is negotiating access to about 80,000 U.S. cell sites to build a fourth national carrier, on top of its recently announced 800 MHz spectrum deal. Telecom stocks fell sharply on the report.
Verizon (VZ) is expected to report EPS of $1.27, up from $1.21, on $34.77 billion in revenue. In Q2, EPS of $1.30 beat estimates and the stock rose almost 6%, despite revenue of $34.25 billion missing the $35.16 billion estimate. Postpaid phone net additions, churn, service revenue growth near 3%, free cash flow and progress on reducing net debt of $164 billion are the key items. Management's response to the SpaceX threat will matter as much as the numbers. Shares trade at $44.66, and the dividend yield is about 6.3%. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $49.89.
T-Mobile (TMUS) goes into earnings at a new 52-week low of $146.54 after falling 7.7% on Friday. The stock is down about 26% year to date. Consensus calls for EPS of $2.86 on $23.15 billion in revenue. In Q2, adjusted EPS of $2.99 beat the $2.49 estimate, but the stock still fell about 11% the next day. Management guided to about 250,000 postpaid account net additions in Q3, down from 277,000 in Q2, as it migrates legacy rate plans. Churn, postpaid ARPA and full-year guidance are the key metrics. Full-year guidance stands at about $77 billion in service revenue, $18.4–$18.8 billion in adjusted free cash flow and $37.1–$37.5 billion in core adjusted EBITDA. The 15% dividend increase to $1.17 per share in September supports the stock. The rating is Strong Buy (10 of 11), with an average target of $231.45, far above the current price.
Coca-Cola (KO) is expected to report comparable EPS of $0.87 on $12.92 billion in revenue, compared with $0.82 and $12.46 billion a year ago. In Q2, EPS of $0.97 beat the $0.92 estimate, revenue reached $13.38 billion, and unit case volume grew 5%. Management then raised its full-year outlook to about 5% organic revenue growth and 9%–10% comparable EPS growth. For Q3, the company expects about a 3-point currency benefit to comparable EPS. Volume in North America and Europe, where lower-income consumers remain price-sensitive, and price/mix in Asia Pacific are the key metrics. Shares are up more than 30% year to date and trade at $92.71. Every tracked rating is bullish (Strong Buy), with an average target of $97.27.
Starbucks (SBUX) closes fiscal 2026 with consensus EPS of $0.73, up about 40% from $0.52, on $9.23 billion in revenue. The "Back to Starbucks" turnaround is gaining traction. Fiscal Q3 EPS of $0.85 beat the $0.66 estimate, and management raised fiscal 2026 guidance to global comparable sales growth near 6% and EPS of $2.55–$2.65, from $2.25–$2.45. It also raised the quarterly dividend to $0.63. The first fiscal 2027 outlook (the Street models about $3.16 EPS), U.S. traffic trends, margins after about $300 million in restructuring charges, and plans for 600–650 net new stores will drive the reaction. Shares trade at $100.80. The rating is Buy, with an average target of $110.50.
Welltower (WELL) is expected to report normalized FFO of $1.64 per share, up about 22% from $1.34, on revenue of $3.64 billion (+35%). In Q2, normalized FFO of $1.60 beat the $1.55 estimate. Same-store NOI in senior housing operating rose 20.5%, helped by a 330-basis-point occupancy gain and 5.2% RevPOR growth. Management has raised full-year FFO guidance twice, to $6.36–$6.44. Investors will look for another raise, updates on the roughly $15.5 billion of planned senior-housing investment, and how actively the company uses its $7.5 billion at-the-market equity program. Shares trade at $237.32. The rating is Strong Buy (12 of 13), with an average target of $262.54.
1. AI capex: payback versus financing. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon will set the tone for the entire AI supply chain, from Amphenol and Corning to Caterpillar and GE Vernova. Strong cloud growth paired with capex that is high but funded from cash flow could start a relief rally in the stocks hit hardest in October. More capex hikes alongside weak free cash flow, or any sign of large debt or equity financing, could extend the selloff.
2. Memory and semis: the market is braced for bad news. Sandisk, Seagate and KLA trade far below their highs despite record results and supportive guidance. When expectations are this low, an in-line quarter with a solid outlook can produce large upside moves. Options pricing of roughly ±8%–10% for several of these names shows how uncertain the reaction is.
3. The energy windfall and its side effects. The oil majors should post their strongest refining results in years. The questions are whether they return the cash through buybacks or save it, and how long the windfall lasts. The same energy shock is pushing up inflation, raising costs for UPS and consumer brands, and limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates.
4. Macro news lands mid-week. Wednesday's Fed decision comes hours before Alphabet and Microsoft report. Thursday's PCE and GDP data come before the open on the busiest day of the week. A hawkish surprise could hit long-duration growth stocks, while softer inflation data could help them.
5. Defensive sectors look like the place to hide, but expectations are high. Pharma, payments and consumer staples have been strong performers, with Lilly, Mastercard, Visa, AbbVie and Coca-Cola all trading near record highs. That means expectations are high. These stocks need clean beats and confident guidance to stay at these levels.
With about a third of the S&P 500 by count reporting, plus the Fed and key inflation data, this week will likely decide whether the market ends the year led by AI or by the broader market.
This article is an earnings preview for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Consensus estimates, analyst ratings and price targets reflect data available as of October 25, 2026, and may change before the reports. Share prices are as of the October 23, 2026 close. Actual results may differ materially from expectations.
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