GET DAILY SIGNALSADT (ADT) Reports +4% Revenue Growth in Q3 2026 Amid Proposed Thrive Acquisition
Key Takeaways
- ADT Inc. reported third quarter 2026 total revenue of $1,349 million, up 4% from $1,298 million a year earlier, driven by higher security installation and product revenue.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit allocated to each share of stock) came in at $0.24, modestly ahead of the $0.23 consensus estimate and up from $0.23 in the prior-year quarter.
- Net income rose to $151 million from $145 million, while income from continuing operations reached $153 million, or $0.20 per diluted share.
- Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, was $217 million, up $8 million year over year, reflecting the company's continued focus on cash generation.
- Recurring Monthly Revenue (RMR, the contracted monthly revenue from monitored customers) declined 1% to $360 million, while trailing twelve-month gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1%.
- The results landed against the backdrop of a proposed acquisition of ADT by Thrive Holdings announced on October 29, 2026, which prompted management to skip the usual question-and-answer session on its earnings call.
Why This Quarter Matters
ADT's third quarter 2026 report arrives at an unusual moment for the home and business security provider. Just days before the release, on October 29, 2026, the company announced a proposed acquisition by Thrive Holdings, a development that has reframed how investors view the quarter's operating results. The earnings themselves offer a snapshot of a business in transition, as ADT continues shifting customers toward its ADT+ platform and an outright equipment sales model while contending with the lingering impact of its October 2025 divestiture of the multifamily business. For shareholders, the report matters less for a single quarter's beat or miss and more for what it signals about revenue durability, customer attrition, and free cash flow as the takeover process moves forward. I also checked comparable names in the sector using Tickeron’s AI Screener to put these trends in context.
The Numbers Behind the Report
ADT posted third quarter 2026 total revenue of $1,349 million, an increase of 4% from $1,298 million in the same period last year. The top line came in slightly ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $1.34 billion. The increase was primarily driven by higher security installation, product, and other revenue, reflecting a greater mix of professionally installed systems sold under the outright sales model. Monitoring and related services revenue declined to $1,084 million from $1,098 million, partly due to lower sales volume and the revenue loss from the multifamily divestiture, partially offset by higher average prices.
Adjusted EPS was $0.24, edging past the $0.23 consensus and matching a 4% year-over-year improvement. Net income was $151 million, up from $145 million a year ago, while income from continuing operations rose $9 million to $153 million, or $0.20 per diluted share. Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, reached $217 million, up $8 million, underscoring the company's emphasis on cash generation and shareholder returns. ADT returned $64 million to shareholders during the quarter through $23 million of share repurchases and $41 million of dividend payments. From what I see, the cash flow strength stands out as a steadying factor here.
How the Market Is Responding
Market attention around ADT's third quarter 2026 report has been dominated less by the modest earnings beat than by the proposed acquisition by Thrive Holdings announced on October 29, 2026. Because the buyout agreement sets the terms of the transaction, the usual post-earnings stock volatility tied to guidance changes has been muted. Management confirmed it would not take questions on the earnings call in consideration of the pending acquisition, a signal that the near-term narrative is anchored to deal execution rather than quarterly operational swings. Investor sentiment therefore hinges on the merger's progress, financing, and closing conditions, with the earnings release serving primarily as confirmation of a steady underlying business during the transition.
What to Watch Going Forward
Looking ahead, the most important catalyst for ADT shareholders is the completion of the Thrive Holdings acquisition. Investors will want to follow regulatory approvals, financing arrangements, and any updates on the expected closing timeline, as these factors will shape near-term outcomes for the stock.
On the operational side, several metrics remain worth watching even within the buyout context. Customer attrition is a key area of focus, with trailing twelve-month gross customer revenue attrition at 13.1%, up slightly from 13.0% a year earlier. The modest decline in RMR, which slipped to $360 million, reflects the continued transition toward the ADT+ platform and the outright sales model, a shift that pressures recurring revenue in the short term but is intended to improve subscriber economics over time.
Cash flow remains a bright spot. Adjusted free cash flow of $217 million, up $8 million year over year, reinforces ADT's ability to fund shareholder returns and manage its capital structure. The company held $228 million in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2026, with no amounts outstanding under its revolving credit facility. As the acquisition process unfolds, these financial fundamentals will help determine how smoothly the deal progresses and how the business performs for stakeholders in the interim. I’m watching this closely as the transition plays out.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter stocks by industry, technical patterns, and performance metrics. It gives a quick, efficient way to compare names like ADT against peers and surface relevant ideas without manual effort, which has proven useful when evaluating companies in the security sector.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ADT's RSI Oscillator stays in overbought zone for 3 days
The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 17 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
ADT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADT as a result. In 69 of 104 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADT just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
ADT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The 50-day moving average for ADT moved above the 200-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +43.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADT advanced for three days, in 166 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 114 of 164 cases where ADT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.065) is normal, around the industry mean (2.993). P/E Ratio (12.766) is within average values for comparable stocks, (2.637). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.450) is also within normal values, averaging (5.749). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.297) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.177) is also within normal values, averaging (2.085).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of monitored security, interactive home and business automation and related monitoring services
Industry MiscellaneousCommercialServices
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