GET DAILY SIGNALSAlnylam (ALNY) Reports +17% Revenue Growth but Shares Fall on Guidance Concerns
Key Takeaways
- Total revenue rose to $1.458 billion, up roughly 17% year over year, driven by 52% growth in net product revenue to about $1.29 billion.
- The TTR (transthyretin amyloidosis) franchise generated $1.15 billion, up 59% year over year, with flagship therapy AMVUTTRA up 65% to $1.13 billion.
- Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) jumped to $16.26, but the figure was inflated by a roughly $1.9 billion non-cash tax benefit from releasing U.S. valuation allowances.
- Non-GAAP operating income fell 11% to $425 million, reflecting a tough comparison against a prior-year $300 million Roche milestone.
- Management reiterated 2026 guidance but signaled TTR revenue will likely land near the low end of its $4.2 billion–$4.5 billion range, and the stock fell sharply after the report.
- For deeper coverage, explore Alnylam's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts on its dedicated pages.
- See how AI-driven strategies are navigating current conditions with Tickeron's Trending AI Robots.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Alnylam's third-quarter 2026 report carried outsized weight because the company is a bellwether for RNAi (RNA interference) therapeutics and because its flagship AMVUTTRA launch in ATTR cardiomyopathy remains central to its growth story. Heading into the print, shares had already fallen sharply during 2026 following earlier guidance cuts, leaving investors less focused on headline profit and more on underlying demand. The quarter would test whether commercial investments and a field-force expansion were converting physician interest into new patient starts, and whether the company could defend its full-year outlook.
Reported Results
Alnylam reported total revenue of $1.458 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, up roughly 17% year over year and ahead of the approximately $1.43 billion consensus. Net product revenue climbed 52% to about $1.29 billion, led by the TTR franchise at $1.15 billion (up 59%) and AMVUTTRA at $1.13 billion (up 65%).
On the bottom line, GAAP net income reached $2.17 billion, or $15.72 per diluted share, while non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $16.26. That headline number was heavily boosted by a roughly $1.9 billion non-cash income tax benefit tied to the release of valuation allowances on U.S. deferred tax assets. Stripping out that distortion, non-GAAP operating income fell 11% to $425 million, pressured by an 80% drop in collaboration revenue (to $71 million) against a prior-year $300 million Roche milestone. Product gross margin slipped five points to 72% on higher AMVUTTRA royalty tiers. The company ended the quarter with $3.6 billion in cash and marketable securities.
On guidance, Alnylam reiterated full-year 2026 total net product revenue of $4.7 billion–$5.1 billion and its $4.2 billion–$4.5 billion TTR range, though management said it now expects TTR revenue near the low end. Collaboration and royalty guidance was trimmed slightly to $575 million–$625 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite a headline EPS beat, Alnylam shares fell sharply after the report, approaching 52-week lows. The market largely looked past the tax-boosted profit figure and instead focused on the quality of the quarter. Management acknowledged that underlying AMVUTTRA demand growth had not met expectations and that the expanded sales force had not yet translated into additional patient starts. Guidance pointing to the low end of the TTR range, combined with fourth-quarter inventory and pricing headwinds, reinforced a cautious tone among investors already skeptical after the stock's steep 2026 decline.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Investors will be watching several near-term variables. Management flagged fourth-quarter headwinds from U.S. inventory and pricing dynamics, including the reversal of roughly $17 million in inventory benefits and about $10 million in one-time gross-to-net adjustments recorded in the third quarter.
Regulatory and payer developments also loom large. A proposed CMS 340B rule could reshape Medicare Part B reimbursement as soon as January 2027, introducing uncertainty around net price and volume. Separately, UnitedHealth's more restrictive Medicare Advantage policy on first-line AMVUTTRA took effect October 1 and may delay new patient starts.
On the pipeline front, management expanded enrollment in the TRITON-CM Phase 3 trial of nucresiran to roughly 2,250 patients while maintaining a 2030 launch target for ATTR cardiomyopathy. Additional catalysts include a November 2026 PDUFA decision date for cemdisiran, partnered with Regeneron, and planned pivotal development of brezosiran in Huntington's disease in 2027. Alnylam also said it will delay 2027 product revenue guidance to mid-February 2027, alongside readouts from its obesity and bleeding-disorder programs.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When reviewing earnings like these, I often rely on Tickeron's AI Screener to quickly filter for comparable names in the biotech space and assess momentum shifts around events. It allows me to cross-check technical patterns and performance metrics alongside the fundamental data, helping confirm whether the market's reaction aligns with broader sector trends. This kind of targeted scan adds useful context without replacing the detailed financial review.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ALNY in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026
ALNY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 32 cases where ALNY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +4.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALNY advanced for three days, in 219 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ALNY as a result. In 56 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ALNY turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
ALNY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ALNY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALNY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for ALNY entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ALNY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (16.305) is normal, around the industry mean (3.162). P/E Ratio (28.109) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-1.064). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.330) is also within normal values, averaging (9.059). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (131.622) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.911) is also within normal values, averaging (439.647).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALNY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of therapeutics based on RNA interference
Industry Biotechnology
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