American Airlines (AAL) hits trend line again, gets another bearish signal
Back on May 8, I wrote a bearish article on American Airlines (NYSE: AAL). I cited a downward sloped trend line, a bearish crossover from the daily stochastic readings, and a bearish signal from the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine as the reasons for the bearish posture.
The stock was trading just under $34 at the time of that blog entry and it would eventually fall to $27. The stock has since rallied back, but it is running into the same downward sloped trend line again.
We see that the daily stochastic readings just made a bearish crossover, just as they did in early May. The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine just generated another bearish signal as well. This signal came on June 17 and it showed a confidence level of 69%. Previous predictions on American Airlines have been successful 79% of the time. This signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month.
American’s fundamentals are part of the reason for the downward trend. The company’s earnings have declined by 18% per year over the last three years. Earnings fell by 30% in the most recent quarter. Sales have barely increased at all, increasing by only 4% per year.
The company’s return on equity is neutral right now and the profit margin is below average at 6.3%.
AAL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL turned positive on June 27, 2025. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 26, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AAL moved above its 50-day moving average on June 23, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 30, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAL moved out of overbought territory on July 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 26 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 58 cases where AAL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on June 24, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (2.979). P/E Ratio (12.450) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.124). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.585) is also within normal values, averaging (2.340). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.033). P/S Ratio (0.166) is also within normal values, averaging (0.658).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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