Blue Owl Capital (OWL) +31.5% Surge Over 30 Days: Earnings and AUM Growth in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Blue Owl Capital shares rose approximately 31.5% in the 30 days through August 12, 2026, climbing from a July 13 close of $9.29 to a latest available price of $12.22.
- Second-quarter 2026 results, released July 30, showed distributable earnings per share of $0.22 in line with consensus and fee-related revenue above estimates, fueling a 6.4% single-session gain.
- Assets under management reached $319 billion, up 12% year over year, while $31.1 billion of AUM not yet paying fees supports the fee-growth outlook.
- Real assets remained the fastest-growing platform, with AUM up 25% and revenue up 27%.
- A $0.23 per-share quarterly dividend and a $750 million senior notes refinancing reinforced the firm's balance-sheet and capital-return story.
- Key risks include softer private-credit conditions, redemption limits in certain retail vehicles, and lower GAAP net income.
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Business Overview
Blue Owl Capital operates as a global alternative asset manager with three core platforms: Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital. As of June 30, 2026, the firm oversaw $319 billion in assets, anchored by a permanent capital base that includes institutional investors, individual investors, and insurance companies. Revenue comes largely from management fees on long-dated vehicles, making fee-related earnings and distributable earnings the key metrics for evaluating recurring economics. The firm has broadened into net lease, digital infrastructure, and alternative credit to diversify fee streams. Investors track OWL for AUM trends, fee-related earnings per share, distributable earnings, dividend policy, and private-credit conditions. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
OWL Stock Performance: 30 Days and the Broader Quarter
Over the 30 days through August 12, 2026, OWL advanced approximately 31.5%, moving from a July 13 close of $9.29 to a latest available price of $12.22. The advance picked up after second-quarter earnings, with a 6.4% gain on July 30 from $9.55 to $10.16, followed by further strength into early August that took the price to $12.32 on August 11 before settling at $12.22. On a quarterly basis the picture is also constructive but more volatile. From a May 13 close of $9.77, shares gained roughly 25% through August 12, though the period included a sharp drop to an $8.47 close on June 24 amid broader pressure on alternative-asset and private-credit names before the earnings-driven recovery lifted the stock to multi-month highs.
What Powered the Recent 30-Day Advance
The main catalyst was the July 30 second-quarter earnings release. Blue Owl reported distributable earnings per share of $0.22, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while fee-related earnings revenue rose 7% year over year to $693.6 million, above the consensus estimate of about $685.9 million. Total GAAP revenue increased 7% to $753.1 million, and management noted that both fee-related earnings and distributable earnings rose 9% from the prior-year quarter. Fundraising and AUM trends added support, with total AUM reaching $319 billion, up 12% year over year, and $7.8 billion raised in new capital during the quarter. The firm ended June with $31.1 billion of AUM not yet paying fees, which represents roughly $380 million in expected annual management fees once deployed. Management reaffirmed expectations to exceed 2026 consensus figures of $1.02 in fee-related earnings per share and $0.89 in distributable earnings per share. Real assets momentum was notable, with AUM up 25% and revenue up 27%, driven by the Net Lease strategy and a digital infrastructure platform that now spans more than 140 data centers and 15.3 gigawatts of leased and owned capacity. The company also declared a $0.23 per-share quarterly dividend. In August it priced $750 million of 6.750% senior notes due 2036, with proceeds earmarked to repay revolving credit facility borrowings and extend the maturity profile. Using Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine confirmed the momentum in real assets.
Quarterly Context and Lingering Headwinds
The three-month trend reflects a recovery from depressed valuations rather than uninterrupted gains. In May and June, shares faced pressure alongside concerns about private-credit liquidity, softer sponsor-led deal activity, and redemption requests in certain retail-oriented vehicles. The firm has maintained quarterly redemption limits in some retail credit funds, though management noted that redemption requests at non-traded BDCs declined in the second quarter while evergreen inflows improved. The second-quarter report refocused attention on fee growth and platform scale. Strong AUM expansion, the embedded management-fee pipeline from not-yet-fee-paying capital, and continued real assets expansion gave investors reason to re-rate the stock from its late-June lows. The August debt refinancing provided additional balance-sheet clarity. Even after the rebound, OWL remained well below its 52-week high of $20.58, illustrating how far sentiment had deteriorated earlier in the cycle.
What to Watch for OWL Going Forward
Investors should monitor the deployment of Blue Owl’s $31.1 billion of AUM not yet paying fees, as conversion into fee-paying assets directly supports fee-related earnings growth. The pace of fundraising across real assets, alternative credit, and digital infrastructure will show whether the firm can maintain its trajectory. Private-credit conditions remain a key variable: watch redemption trends, portfolio credit performance, and whether sponsor-led M&A and refinancing activity recover enough to support direct-lending deployment. The next quarterly report will update fee-related earnings margins, distributable earnings per share, and dividend coverage following the August refinancing. Macro factors such as interest rates, credit spreads, and institutional demand for alternative assets also matter. Analyst price targets remain mixed and ratings cautious, so execution on fee growth and platform scaling will likely carry more weight than any single headline.
Tools That Support My Research
In my analysis of alternative asset managers, I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots. They let me review automated strategies across different timeframes and risk profiles, helping cross-check ideas on names like OWL against broader market signals without manual screening. This approach keeps the process efficient while highlighting patterns that align with my own objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
OWL sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for OWL moved above the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where OWL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OWL as a result. In 61 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OWL just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where OWL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +4.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OWL advanced for three days, in 228 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
OWL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 59 cases where OWL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
OWL moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for OWL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OWL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for OWL entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.135) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). OWL has a moderately high P/E Ratio (76.250) as compared to the industry average of (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.146) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.100) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.303) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. OWL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OWL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
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