GET DAILY SIGNALSD-Wave Quantum (QBTS) After -60% Drawdown: Can Shares Reach the $35 Analyst Target?
Key Takeaways
- The central $35 stock price target is the arithmetic mean of 13 individually attributable analyst price targets, rounded from a calculated average of $35.31.
- With shares near $11.47, reaching $35 would require upside of roughly 205% — a very large move.
- Verified targets span a wide range from $22 to $43, reflecting deep disagreement over execution risk versus growth potential.
- Supporting factors include surging bookings, a large cash position and U.S. government interest, while the biggest risks are repeated revenue misses, shareholder dilution and pending securities-fraud class actions.
- Recent target cuts from B. Riley (to $22) and Wedbush (to $30) show that even bullish analysts are trimming expectations.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
The $35 central target is calculated from 13 attributable analyst price targets spanning roughly $22 to $43, a range wide enough to signal genuine disagreement. The most recent revisions have been downward. In November 2026, B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis lowered his target to $22 from $27 while keeping a Buy rating, and Wedbush cut its target to $30 from $37. Earlier in the year, targets were far higher: Rosenblatt Securities carried a $43 target, while Needham, Roth MKM, TD Cowen and Cantor Fitzgerald held targets near $40, and Canaccord Genuity stood at $41. BMO Capital initiated coverage at $35 in August, Mizuho held $29, and Northland Securities maintained a Hold with a $22 target.
Rating-wise the group skews strongly bullish — a "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" consensus across data providers — but the shrinking targets tell their own story. Analysts who remain constructive generally cite accelerating bookings and a unique position in annealing-based quantum computing, while more cautious voices emphasize that revenue has missed estimates for three consecutive quarters. No single target is more likely than another; the wide range is itself the signal that the market is pricing uncertainty. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
With the latest verified close near $11.47, a move to $35 implies roughly 205% appreciation — a very large move even for a high-beta, speculative stock. D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) trades at an exceptionally rich multiple on trailing revenue (a price-to-sales ratio well above 300x) because current sales are tiny: second-quarter 2026 revenue was about $3.1 million. The path to $35 would effectively require the market to regain confidence that bookings translate into revenue, beginning with the delivery of two quantum systems priced in the tens of millions of dollars expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
Several verified fundamentals underpin the bullish case. First-half 2026 bookings reached roughly $35.5 million, up more than 1,000% year over year, and remaining performance obligations grew sharply, suggesting demand is real. The company held about $546 million in cash and securities at mid-2026, providing runway despite ongoing losses. U.S. government interest in quantum technology and a long-term roadmap backed by several analysts support the thesis that D-Wave can grow into its valuation as full-year revenue scales toward the roughly $43 million analysts project for 2026 and higher in 2027.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
The risks are substantial. Revenue has missed consensus for three straight quarters, and the 2026 outlook depends heavily on fourth-quarter system deliveries that could slip. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a large net loss and negative free cash flow, and its diluted share count has roughly tripled since 2022, diluting existing holders. Law firms have filed class actions alleging the company overstated growth prospects, and competition from IonQ, Rigetti Computing and others — including the IPO of rival Quantinuum — has pressured the entire sector. A single missed delivery could meaningfully cut the forward revenue that bullish targets rely on.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
D-Wave's 52-week range of roughly $8.48 to $32.39 frames the challenge. The shares recently reclaimed their 20-day moving average near $11.44 but remain well below the 60-day average near $15.21, which now acts as an intermediate resistance zone. A $35 target sits above the prior 52-week high, meaning the stock would need to break decisively through the $15 area and then the low-to-mid $20s before $35 becomes realistic. The $10 level has served as psychological support near the recent low.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual analysts differ, and some targets in this set predate the 2026 selloff. Investors should watch quarterly system deliveries and full-year revenue guidance, bookings and remaining performance obligations, the outcome of the class-action litigation, and any further analyst target revisions. Sector sentiment, interest-rate policy and the funding environment for unprofitable technology companies will also matter. From what I see, monitoring these catalysts closely remains essential.
Final Assessment
The question of whether D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) can reach $35 is really a question of execution. The central target, an average of verified analyst targets, sits far above the current price and requires roughly a tripling of value. Strong bookings growth, ample cash and government interest give the bull case a foundation, but repeated revenue misses, heavy dilution and litigation risk explain why even bullish analysts have been cutting their numbers. The wide $22-to-$43 target range captures that tension. Whether $35 is ultimately reached will depend on fourth-quarter system deliveries, sustained bookings conversion and a broader recovery in quantum-computing sentiment — none of which is assured.
Using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals for Research
In my own process, I find Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals helpful for tracking fast-moving names like this one. The tool uses artificial intelligence to monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell or Hold signals based on changing market conditions and technical behavior. It has allowed me to spot shifts more efficiently while cross-checking my own analysis of bookings trends and analyst revisions.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
QBTS's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for QBTS moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 27 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 56 of 61 cases where QBTS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QBTS just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where QBTS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 33 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +26.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QBTS advanced for three days, in 167 of 198 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
QBTS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QBTS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for QBTS entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.743) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (-15.257) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. QBTS's P/S Ratio (476.190) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. QBTS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QBTS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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