Can D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Reach $40?

Key Takeaways

• Investors are asking whether D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) can climb back to the $40 level, a round-number milestone multiple Wall Street firms currently use as a price target.
• The strongest bullish case rests on an order book that has surged even as reported revenue has lagged, plus growing production deployments and U.S. government backing.
• The biggest obstacles are lumpy revenue, widening operating losses, a speculative valuation, and a bearish technical structure that remains below key moving averages.
• Key support sits near the 52-week low around $12.75, while resistance lies in the low-$20s and again near prior highs around $46.75.
• Reaching $40 would require a roughly 140% advance from recent levels, meaning the thesis depends on bookings converting into recognized revenue far faster than they have so far.

Why Investors Are Watching the $40 Level

D-Wave Quantum, a developer of quantum annealing computing systems, software, and services, has become one of the most actively discussed names in the emerging quantum-computing sector. After peaking near $46.75 in late 2025, the stock has given back much of its gain, recently trading around $16.50 with a market capitalization near $6.1 billion. That decline has prompted a recurring investor question: can QBTS realistically reclaim the $40 mark?

The $40 level is not arbitrary. Several firms, including Cantor Fitzgerald, Jefferies, Craig-Hallum, and Wedbush, have published $40 price targets, placing the round number squarely within the upper half of the Wall Street forecast range. Because the stock has already traded above $40 before, the target represents a return to previously charted territory rather than a move into entirely uncharted valuation ground.

Current Market Position

D-Wave's recent fundamentals tell a split story. In its latest reported quarter, revenue was essentially flat year over year at roughly $3.1 million, missing consensus estimates, while the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to about $37.1 million as spending on product development and go-to-market efforts increased. The company also ended the quarter with about $546 million in cash and marketable securities, a still-substantial cushion that declined partly because of its roughly $250 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits.

At the same time, demand indicators moved sharply higher. First-half bookings surged more than 1,120% year over year to roughly $35.5 million, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) climbed to about $40.7 million. Management has indicated that a meaningful portion of that backlog is expected to convert to revenue within twelve months, and a roughly $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University is anticipated to be delivered and largely recognized in the fourth quarter.

What Could Drive the Next Leg Higher

The most direct path toward $40 runs through revenue conversion. If D-Wave successfully ships its planned annealing systems and converts its RPO into recognized sales, the top line could expand sharply, validating the demand the company has already booked. Management also expects to deliver a 17-qubit gate-based system by the end of 2026 and has outlined a longer-term roadmap toward fault-tolerant, 100-logical-qubit systems by 2032.

Commercial adoption is deepening in ways that could support a higher stock price target. D-Wave has reported six customer applications running in production, and production use now accounts for more than a third of its quantum-computing-as-a-service revenue, up sharply from the prior year. Deployments with large customers have demonstrated measurable operational improvements, and a partnership focused on financial-crime detection points toward broader enterprise applications. U.S. government support, including up to $100 million in CHIPS Act backing, provides additional validation of the company's dual annealing and gate-based approach.

What Could Prevent the Move

Several obstacles stand between the current price and $40. First, revenue remains lumpy and heavily dependent on a small number of large system sales, so quarterly results can swing dramatically. Second, the company is deeply unprofitable, and a valuation that still prices in years of future growth leaves little room for execution missteps. Third, competition from better-funded players such as IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), as well as large technology incumbents, raises the bar for sustained commercial traction.

Investors should also weigh the stock's volatility. With a beta well above 2, QBTS has routinely posted double-digit single-day swings, and insider selling in recent quarters has added a note of caution. A failure to convert bookings into revenue could keep the shares range-bound well below the $40 objective.

Analyst Price Targets and Technical Levels

Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive. The consensus recommendation is in "buy" territory, with an average analyst price target of roughly $35 to $36, a low near $22, and a high near $43 to $45. The $40 objective therefore sits slightly above consensus but is well supported by multiple individual firms' published targets.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the picture is more cautious. The stock has been trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a downtrend that has not yet reversed. The 52-week low around $12.75 marks the most important support level, while the low-$20s represent an early resistance level that would need to be cleared before a sustained push toward $40 becomes realistic.

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Final Assessment

A return to $40 for D-Wave Quantum is plausible but far from assured. The case in favor rests on a record backlog, deepening production adoption, government support, and a roadmap that has kept most of Wall Street on the buy side. The case against centers on the gap between booked demand and recognized revenue, persistent losses, and a valuation that already anticipates substantial future success. The decisive variable is execution: whether signed contracts translate into shipped systems and recognized sales quickly enough to justify the higher price. Investors should watch the conversion of RPO into revenue, the pace of new bookings, and the stock's ability to reclaim the low-$20s resistance before considering whether the $40 milestone is genuinely within reach.

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