Elbit Systems (ESLT): +13% Surge in 30 Days on Earnings Beat and Backlog Growth
Key Takeaways
- ESLT stock rose +13% over the past 30 days, driven primarily by a blowout Q4 2025 earnings report with revenue up 11% and EPS beating estimates by over 10%.
- Over the past quarter, shares surged +52%, fueled by a record $28.1 billion order backlog, up significantly year-over-year, amid heightened global defense demand.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for Elbit's systems, alongside major contract wins totaling hundreds of millions from international clients.
- Strong revenue growth in C4I, Cyber, ISTAR, and Land segments, plus a dividend hike over 30%, enhanced investor sentiment.
- Defense sector tailwinds from Europe and U.S. spending increases supported the price movement.
Understanding Elbit Systems (ESLT) and Its Market Position
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) stands out as a leading Israel-based defense technology company, developing and supplying advanced products and services for defense and homeland security. Its core operations cover aerospace, C4I and cyber systems, intelligence surveillance, electronic warfare, land systems, and naval solutions. With a global footprint spanning North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and beyond, Elbit maintains a strong competitive edge as a key supplier to governments. Its diverse portfolio includes unmanned aerial systems, precision munitions, active protection systems like Iron Fist, and electro-optic solutions.
From what I see, these fundamentals—especially exposure to high-demand areas like electronic warfare and counter-drone tech—directly support the recent stock performance. Escalating geopolitical risks have clearly amplified orders and revenue visibility from that massive backlog.
ESLT Stock Price Action: 30-Day and Quarterly Review
In the last 30 days, ESLT stock has climbed +13%, moving from around $769 on February 27 to $870 at the latest close. The path was volatile but upward-trending, with an intra-day peak over $1,016 on March 17 before some profit-taking set in—strong buying tied to earnings and contracts.
Looking back over the past quarter, shares advanced +52%, starting near $571 in late December and reaching current levels. This uptrend held steady, with sharp gains around key news events, demonstrating resilience even as broader markets fluctuated.
Key Drivers Behind ESLT's 30-Day Rally
The standout catalyst was Elbit's Q4 2025 earnings release on March 17, which delivered record quarterly revenue of $2.15 billion—up 11.3% year-over-year and beating estimates—along with adjusted EPS of $3.56, surpassing consensus by +10%. Full-year revenue reached $7.94 billion, up 16%, and net income rose sharply. Shares jumped 16% that day to a record high, driven by a $28.1 billion backlog—up $5.5 billion year-over-year and 72% international—pointing to solid future revenue.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East created "material" demand for defense solutions, lifting sentiment. Recent contract wins, such as $435 million for advanced systems and $277 million for turrets and munitions, added further momentum. A dividend increase of more than 30% to $1.00 quarterly bolstered the rally, while analyst moves like Jefferies raising its target captured the optimism, even with a Hold consensus overall. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how ESLT stacks up against industry peers.
What Powered ESLT's +52% Quarterly Gain
The quarter's +52% advance came from sustained strength in the defense sector amid ongoing conflicts, which lifted Elbit's backlog and order intake. Key developments included multi-year international contracts, like $228 million from the U.S. Army for Iron Fist and $275 million in Asia-Pacific for electronic warfare, driving backlog growth and diversifying revenue away from Israel (now 32% of total). Surges in European and U.S. demand, linked to higher budgets and Middle East instability, further amplified exposure.
Institutional buying and consistent earnings beats in prior quarters built real momentum. Broader factors, such as rising global defense spending—potentially $280 billion more from Europe alone—outweighed supply chain challenges from regional tensions. Elbit's advantages in high-margin areas like C4I and cyber continue to strengthen its position relative to peers.
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ESLT Outlook: Key Factors to Monitor Moving Forward
One thing I'm watching closely is Q1 2026 earnings, expected around late May, with emphasis on backlog conversion, revenue from new contracts, and segment margins against supply chain pressures. Geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and Europe could sway order flow. Risks to note include de-escalation reducing demand or delays from reserve call-ups. Potential catalysts involve more U.S. and international deals, planned capex of $300 million for capacity, and evolving defense budgets. Peer performance in the sector and analyst valuation updates will also influence the path ahead. In my view, this setup underscores why staying attuned to these drivers matters for ESLT.
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Contributor
Aroon Indicator for ESLT shows an upward move is likely
ESLT's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on August 17, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 268 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 268 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ESLT advanced for three days, in of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ESLT as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ESLT turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
ESLT moved below its 50-day moving average on August 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ESLT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ESLT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ESLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ESLT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.874) is normal, around the industry mean (7.037). P/E Ratio (55.781) is within average values for comparable stocks, (60.208). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (8.077). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.156) is also within normal values, averaging (20.174).
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General Information
a manufacturer of airborne, ground and command, control and communication electronic systems
Industry AerospaceDefense
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